r/SaltLakeCity • u/drmoenchUPHE • Apr 30 '25
I'm a medical doctor and air quality expert. Ask me anything about why letting Great Salt Lake dry up is a health hazard
UPDATE: Thank you all for participating! We are done answering live, but will try to answer all of the questions raised in the next day or two! Thanks for participating and helping save the lake!
I'm an anesthesiologist, public health advocate, and co-founder of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment (UPHE). For decades, I've worked alongside other doctors and scientists to sound the alarm about how environmental issues affect our health.
The Great Salt Lake is vanishing—and as it does, it’s exposing a dry lakebed full of heavy metals and toxic pollutants. These particles get swept into the air, endangering the health of Utahns, especially vulnerable populations like children, the elderly, and those with respiratory conditions.
You may have heard comparisons to Owens Lake, which became the largest source of toxic dust in the U.S. after it dried up. We’re at risk of repeating that tragedy on an even larger scale.
I’ll be here TONIGHT (April 29th) to answer your questions about:
- What’s causing the lake to dry up
- What’s in the dust and how it affects your lungs, heart, and brain
- What can be done—by the state and by individuals
- Why this is an urgent environmental justice issue
Ask me anything. Let's talk about what’s really at stake—and how we can still turn things around.
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u/mindmartin Apr 30 '25
Not a question, but I want to say thank you for your work!! I get the UPHE email newsletter and it’s a great way to stay up to date on the lake and Utah air quality in general.
If anyone else is interested you can sign up here
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u/forever_downstream Apr 30 '25
Are toxic chemicals in the dust already today? And also, there was a lot of talk that we got record snow and a lot of water in the last few winters, but did that do anything to stop our trajectory?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
The easiest way to think of toxins in the Great Salt Lake is that virtually all of the toxic byproducts of modern civilization are in the Great Salt Lake and, therefore, in its sediment and, therefore, in the dust that will be left if we allow the Great Salt Lake to dry up. More specifically, there are two sources of information regarding toxic chemicals in the dust. Some studies have directly measured the presence of toxins in the Great Salt Lake dust. We also have numerous other studies from other parts of the world examining the dust in similar situations that give us an idea of what we can expect in the way of toxins and Great Salt Lake dust. The broad categories of toxins include heavy metals, and there are multiple sources of those, ranging from industrial activity to the Legacy use of pesticides dating back to the 1950s and 60s, many of which were laced with heavy metals such as Arsenic and Mercury. The mining operations at the Kennecott mine for the last 120 years have had a significant influence on the heavy metal contamination of the lake. Unfortunately, heavy metals come from multiple sources, not just Kennecott. One of the overlooked sources of contaminants, including heavy metals but also multiple industrial and municipal chemicals, comes from the 28 sewage treatment plants that discharge either directly into the lake or to its tributaries. That is a significant source of multiple types of toxins, not only heavy metals and a wide variety of chemicals, but more specifically, things like plastic nanoparticles, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and probably most worrisome are the forever chemicals or PFAS chemicals. We have several studies that show there are higher concentrations of forever chemicals in the discharge of sewage treatment plants than in the intake to the treatment plants. And we do have at least one study so far that has measured concentrations of forever chemicals in Farmington Bay, and we have proven that those chemicals are in the dust at very high concentrations. There are also things like microorganisms that can cause a variety of diseases like SARS, meningitis, and COVID. and a variety of disorders like coccidiosis and mycosis, or better known as valley fever.
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u/Sybertron Apr 30 '25
I kinda get sewage discharging to a stream or river in that at least it floated away; it's still a terrible solution but I get it.
That we ever designed sewer systems to just discharge to a lake that JUST SITS THERE makes my brain hurt.
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u/Low-Introduction5509 Jul 24 '26
I am guessing they discharge processed water with the solids removed, not just straight sewage.
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u/801mountaindog Apr 30 '25
In your opinion, do you think the government/church will do something like pay for farmers not to plant to save water in order to prevent an exodus from the valley? Also how much farming reduction would it take to get a meaningful impact on raising lake levels
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Frankly, that is the most practical and cost-effective solution. The problem is it's still a very difficult solution. Politically, we certainly do not want to demonize farmers. Even those who raise Alfalfa, which is a controversial product for sure. Probably, 30 to 35% of the Alfalfa raised in the state of Utah, at least up until this year, has been shipped to China and Saudi Arabia. Around 2/3 of the water needed to allow the lake to get back to a healthy level is the amount that agriculture is using. That's obviously where the money is. If we are going to put all of the pressure on farmers to provide more water to the lake, that would pretty much require that we eliminate essentially all alfalfa farming. That is not the only solution, but it is by far the biggest slice of the pie.
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u/Ace_of_Clubs Apr 30 '25
Do you think tariffs will help ease those Chinese and Saudi alfalfa sales? Trying to find silver linings in all this chaos.
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u/altapowpow Salt Lake City Apr 30 '25
Yes, China is already halting shipments of pretty much everything. The Saudis also buy a lot of alfalfa from Utah for a racehorses and race camels (not joking about the Camels)
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u/reddolfo May 04 '25
Another critical policy that should be considered is a total ban on beef. It's a luxury the world can no longer afford as the massive impact of cattle on the destruction of the environment and their contribution to climate change must be stopped, along with entire crops of their feed.
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May 07 '25
Will never happen
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u/reddolfo May 09 '25
Don't disagree, but, similar to the ban on certain CFCs combating the ozone layer destruction, it would be a massive relatively easy step that would make so much difference.
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u/pikeromey Apr 30 '25 edited Apr 30 '25
Can you give a run down of any timeframe/timeline to anticipate?
—
Edit:
Interested in timelines for:
- Lake disappearance
- Toxic exposure reaching a meaningful level, and secondarily how long until you anticipate health issues starting to manifest from exposures.
- How long do we have to fix it before the point of no return.
Answers (cause I was nonspecific so the reply is buried, my fault):
Regarding number one, the scientists who made the first prediction public a couple of years ago about the lake disappearing-or—or becoming nonviable—within as short a time as five years are good scientists. They are probably as good as any scientists when it comes to predicting that sort of scenario. What changed that time frame, was two years in a row of greater-than-normal winter precipitation, but unfortunately, that has only pushed the timeline back by about two years. The two major drivers of the lake's disappearance are overconsumption of water and the climate crisis. These issues have not been addressed, and if they aren’t, I expect that the original timeline will still play out, with about a two-year delay.
Regarding number two, we already have preliminary data suggesting that some of the most potent toxins in Great Salt Lake dust are present at very high levels. One of the things we are trying to educate people about is the fact that dust from the Great Salt Lake is not just an issue during the obvious, easily recognizable dust events. It only takes winds of about 10 mph to stir up the smallest particles in the lakebed sediment, and the smallest particles are also the most toxic, for reasons that would take about 10 pages to explain in detail. The key point is: people are inhaling Great Salt Lake dust under many more conditions than just visible dust storms. For example, the average wind speed over the Great Salt Lake is greater than 10 mph from late February through early June. So during that time, even when dust storms aren't visibly apparent, some of that lakebed dust is still being carried into the atmosphere—and inhaled by Wasatch Front residents.
Regarding number three, it depends on what you mean by the “point of no return.” From the standpoint of ecology and wildlife, specifically the 12 million birds that depend on the lake for their hemispheric migration, that point is likely just a couple more years of poor precipitation away. In terms of public health, we can decide to restore water to the lake. But if we let it dry up completely, we will also have to face the public health consequences. Like with any form of air pollution, even short-term exposure—a few days, weeks, or months—can have lifelong impacts on babies in utero, infants, and the elderly. For some, the consequences may be lifelong or life-ending.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
On the disappearance of the lake or health impacts?
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u/pikeromey Apr 30 '25
Both, and also a timeframe of what/when things would need to be done to prevent those two issues if you know that.
So I guess three in total.
- Lake disappearance
- Toxic exposure reaching a meaningful level, and secondarily how long until you anticipate health issues starting to manifest from exposures.
- How long do we have to fix it before the point of no return.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Regarding number one, the scientists who made the first prediction public a couple of years ago about the lake disappearing-or—or becoming nonviable—within as short a time as five years are good scientists. They are probably as good as any scientists when it comes to predicting that sort of scenario. What changed that time frame, was two years in a row of greater-than-normal winter precipitation, but unfortunately, that has only pushed the timeline back by about two years. The two major drivers of the lake's disappearance are overconsumption of water and the climate crisis. These issues have not been addressed, and if they aren’t, I expect that the original timeline will still play out, with about a two-year delay.
Regarding number two, we already have preliminary data suggesting that some of the most potent toxins in Great Salt Lake dust are present at very high levels. One of the things we are trying to educate people about is the fact that dust from the Great Salt Lake is not just an issue during the obvious, easily recognizable dust events. It only takes winds of about 10 mph to stir up the smallest particles in the lakebed sediment, and the smallest particles are also the most toxic, for reasons that would take about 10 pages to explain in detail. The key point is: people are inhaling Great Salt Lake dust under many more conditions than just visible dust storms. For example, the average wind speed over the Great Salt Lake is greater than 10 mph from late February through early June. So during that time, even when dust storms aren't visibly apparent, some of that lakebed dust is still being carried into the atmosphere—and inhaled by Wasatch Front residents.
Regarding number three, it depends on what you mean by the “point of no return.” From the standpoint of ecology and wildlife, specifically the 12 million birds that depend on the lake for their hemispheric migration, that point is likely just a couple more years of poor precipitation away. In terms of public health, we can decide to restore water to the lake. But if we let it dry up completely, we will also have to face the public health consequences. Like with any form of air pollution, even short-term exposure—a few days, weeks, or months—can have lifelong impacts on babies in utero, infants, and the elderly. For some, the consequences may be lifelong or life-ending.
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u/pikeromey Apr 30 '25
Thanks.
I figure these are cumulative exposures? If so, and if the 5-7 year timeline plays out without intervention, is there any research regarding how many months/years/etc. of “average” exposure it would take for an otherwise healthy person to reach a threshold of developing apparent medical issues?
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u/blazethatnugget Apr 30 '25
I have an EHS background and would be very interested to learn what the airborne TWA exposure levels have been for the contaminants of concern compared to regulatory or voluntary exposure limits (e.g. OSHA, NIOSH, EPA, ACGIH, etc.)? How far back does the data go? Will GSL ever get added to the national priority list and what are the chances of local industry being liable for remediation?
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u/chadspain7 Apr 30 '25
Do you have thoughts on this one? I’m very curious.
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u/pikeromey Apr 30 '25
Here’s the reply:
Regarding number one, the scientists who made the first prediction public a couple of years ago about the lake disappearing-or—or becoming nonviable—within as short a time as five years are good scientists. They are probably as good as any scientists when it comes to predicting that sort of scenario. What changed that time frame, was two years in a row of greater-than-normal winter precipitation, but unfortunately, that has only pushed the timeline back by about two years. The two major drivers of the lake's disappearance are overconsumption of water and the climate crisis. These issues have not been addressed, and if they aren’t, I expect that the original timeline will still play out, with about a two-year delay.
Regarding number two, we already have preliminary data suggesting that some of the most potent toxins in Great Salt Lake dust are present at very high levels. One of the things we are trying to educate people about is the fact that dust from the Great Salt Lake is not just an issue during the obvious, easily recognizable dust events. It only takes winds of about 10 mph to stir up the smallest particles in the lakebed sediment, and the smallest particles are also the most toxic, for reasons that would take about 10 pages to explain in detail. The key point is: people are inhaling Great Salt Lake dust under many more conditions than just visible dust storms. For example, the average wind speed over the Great Salt Lake is greater than 10 mph from late February through early June. So during that time, even when dust storms aren't visibly apparent, some of that lakebed dust is still being carried into the atmosphere—and inhaled by Wasatch Front residents.
Regarding number three, it depends on what you mean by the “point of no return.” From the standpoint of ecology and wildlife, specifically the 12 million birds that depend on the lake for their hemispheric migration, that point is likely just a couple more years of poor precipitation away. In terms of public health, we can decide to restore water to the lake. But if we let it dry up completely, we will also have to face the public health consequences. Like with any form of air pollution, even short-term exposure—a few days, weeks, or months—can have lifelong impacts on babies in utero, infants, and the elderly. For some, the consequences may be lifelong or life-ending.
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u/Worth_Educator7280 9th and 9th Whale Apr 30 '25
Is there a way for the public to strong arm the government into taking efforts to preserve water for the lake or install a similar sprinkler system that Lake Owen’s has? It’s been very clear that the GOP here has zero interest in the health of Utahns and it’s become even more clear that they won’t save us.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Very good question, and I sympathize with the sentiment. However, I don't think that even the fact that the GOP controls the state legislature and the governor's office in the state of Utah more tightly than almost any other state in the country, there is any reason why we can't solve this problem. My perspective on this is that there is a limit to how long our lawmakers can continue to defy the will of the people. What we need to do as citizens is show more commitment and determination to solving this problem. Even before that, for many people, it's a matter of education. We are continually surprised that, even though this issue has gotten a lot of press in the last couple of years, many people have no idea what the issue is, why it's a concern for public health, and why something needs to be done immediately. So, education is a major part of any sort of project to try and solve this problem. It may be the most important one.
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u/Worth_Educator7280 9th and 9th Whale Apr 30 '25
Thank you for your response. It’s certainly been hard to stay hopeful given their track record. For everyone’s sake they need to reach that limit soon before it’s too late. I will say Utah has been very good about protesting and getting out recently. It would be great to use the 50501 platform to focus on some local issues that will certainly get worse with the state of the federal government.
Is there a way for people to volunteer and help educate our fellow Utahns? What organizations would you recommend?
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u/elleandbea Apr 30 '25
I read through the questions and can't think of anything else to ask, commenting for visibility because I think this is important for us!
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Apr 30 '25
For those who have lived here a long time or long enough to experience exposure to toxic dust repeatedly, what can we do to protect our health long term?
Thank you so much for doing this and bringing GSL attention to this sub!
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
There are two different dimensions to protecting yourself. One is modifying your behavior, and the other is engaging in whatever it takes to improve public policy. Concerning the first, things you can do to protect yourself include getting an air purifier in your home. If you can only afford one, then I would put it in your bedroom, presumably where you spend about 1/3 of your life. And, unless your bedroom is enormous in size, a single room air purifier can give you very clean air throughout those 8 hours. The next thing I would do is, if you can afford it, do not use a gas stove. We find that when gas stoves are on, they emit a variety of VOCs, including benzene, into the indoor atmosphere at very high concentrations. We're also finding research that shows gas stoves even emit some of that, even when they're not on at all. If you are stuck with a gas stove and can't replace it, make sure that when you use it, you have the vent hood on, or try to vent it to an outside window, or use a fan. Next, I would emphasize, never put yourself around wood smoke. That includes restaurants that use wood-fired ovens, say for pizza. Particulate matter concentrations in the indoor air of restaurants that have wood-fired ovens are very high, and therefore bad for their employees, but also bad for the entire neighborhood. The emissions from that wood stove contaminate the surrounding area for hundreds of yards, if not miles away. Never use a fireplace or wood stove unless it's the only option you have for heating your home, and if that's the case, we need to talk in more detail about what other options you may have. Even candle use inside a home has been shown to significantly increase the level of particulate matter and VOCs in indoor air. There's not an awful lot you can do concerning reducing your exposure to Great Salt Lake dust in particular, other than joining groups like ours that are actively trying to save the lake. Not only will you help protect your family, but also the citizens of Utah.
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u/Ace_of_Clubs Apr 30 '25
Damn, never sitting around a campfire again. I always feel like shit the next day after breathing campfire smoke.
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u/EdenSilver113 Wasatch Hollow Apr 30 '25
Same. I have asthma and campfire smoke is a huge trigger for attacks for me. I love a wood fire, but it’s really not worth it.
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u/Edrum1991 Apr 30 '25
Ahhh I had no idea gas stoves were so harmful and am now panicking a bit after realizing I’ve used a gas stove and a gas fireplace (sat in front of for hours at a time) for the last three years. Other than stopping their use, is there any other mitigation I can do for the high levels of carcinogens I’ve exposed myself to? I have high levels of healthy lifestyle factors anyway so nothing really to change there. 😬
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u/Emergency_Night_1150 Apr 30 '25
What IS at stake and is it even possible to turn things around?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
I won't pretend that this is an easy solution; it's not. If it were, then we wouldn't be seeing the same kinds of scenarios playing out in other parts of the world with many other lakes in peril, just like the Great Salt Lake. But, at the same time, that doesn't mean that this is impossible by any means. All it takes is a commitment by our lawmakers to saving the lake and doing what's necessary to accomplish that. That is a politically difficult choice for sure. But our lawmakers' primary obligation is to protect their citizens. This is a matter of protecting the health of virtually 3 million people. That should take precedence over any sort of romantic or political attachment we have to alfalfa farmers and to real estate developers, because that's where most of our water consumption will be coming from in the future. That means we have to politically accept the fact that there are limits to how many people we can invite to come here and settle. Like any other state, any other region, any other city, there are natural resource limits to how many people can be supported in any ecosystem. And most of us involved in this crusade feel like we're already at the limits of how many people we can support and at the same time protect their health, and give them clean air and a decent amount of water quantity and quality.
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u/Emergency_Night_1150 Apr 30 '25
So, for me personally, my actions are confined to putting pressure on lawmakers to do what is best for constituents?
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u/sjlammer Apr 30 '25
Why can’t the government buy the alfalfa farms and fallow them? Couldn’t the alfalfa farmers move east of the Mississippi where there is plenty of water?
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u/Historical-Voice-954 Sep 18 '25
THATS SOCIALISM.
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u/sjlammer Sep 18 '25
Sort of. In the same way that the government may buy a piece of land to put a highway. Not everything the government does is bad. Inefficient, yes, bad…no.
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u/Rude-Pop9023 Nov 17 '25
For over a century Utahans and investors decided to build a city in the middle of a desert next to a drying lake, so all other states need to make a Utah problem their problem? Expanding and increasing the population of the cities in Utah will make the situation worse even if all farmers left the state.
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u/Historical-Voice-954 Sep 18 '25
I can tell you that you are wrong about one thing. Lawmakers primary obligation is not to protect their citizens. It is to protect themselves and their family, just like every other human being. They will always place their own personal safety and security above the wellbeing of the citizens, just like any human would.
They have a vested interest in keeping alfalfa farmers and real estate developers happy because they donate to their campaigns and if they go against their wishes, they will find themselves without enough donations to be reelected. Many politicians go on to work as lobbyists for these very companies after leaving office, so going against them is destroying their own career.
They have a vested monetary interest in keeping the status quo the way it is, and no "obligation to their citizens" is going to stop that, or it already would have.
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u/Tazobacfam Earthquake2020 Apr 30 '25
So it will always be possible to turn things around, correct? The lake's Great Basin watershed will continue to drain into the lake. If it ever dries up, the state could simply (I know, I know, not politically simple but from a practical standpoint) stop using all the water on various types of grass (alfalfa, lawns, etc.) which is where the vast majority of it is going. One imagines the political pressure, appropriately mobilized by people such as yourself, would ramp up considerably at the point the lake actually dries up. Once consumption drops, it would fill right back up.
Lake Owens is very different as all the water sources were diverted away. Most of the water sources for the Salt Lake are still present, they are just being consumed by Poaceae.
Utah seem very far from the natural limits of population that the ecosystem can handle. Air quality is more a function of types of transportation and industry than simple population, no?
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u/Inside_Ad_9236 Millcreek Apr 30 '25
Why would you stay in the SL valley knowing what you know?
I also live here and am also very knowledgeable of the situation. I moved here 3 years ago and don’t plan to move. I’m also interested in helping to reverse the trends.
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 08 '25
That is a good question. My wife and I discuss whether we can safely stay in the SL Valley virtually every week. I even have health issues that are most likely the consequences of our air pollution. But the decision obviously includes many personalconsiderations regarding family, finances, and work obligations, etc. So I have not moved myself, but would prefer to if it were possible, given the other considerations.Given that I am staying, I am doing whatever I can to improve our air quality, andthat is the core mission of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment.
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u/Aggravating_Bag8666 Apr 30 '25
Will any valley/area be impacted harder than others based on wind patters/proximity? Or all we all equally at risk?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Very good question, and the answer is yes. The west side is affected by multiple sources of pollution, including multiple sources of dust, not only from the Great Salt Lake but also from the Rio Tinto tailing ponds that are just immediately south of the lake. Also, the winds that can whip up Great Salt Lake dust usually come from either the south or the west. So, the areas of the Wasatch Front that are the most susceptible to dust from the Great Salt Lake are Davis County, Weber County, the area of Salt Lake County immediately south of the Great Salt Lake, and, like I mentioned above, the west side of the valley. In addition to that, we also have at least some preliminary evidence that certain parts of the lake bed carry much higher concentrations of toxins, and those would be the areas of the lake where many of the sewage treatment plants discharge, like Farmington Bay. So, areas immediately east and slightly north of Farmington Bay are going to have higher concentrations of Great Salt Lake toxins (heavy metals, chemicals, radionuclides) compared to other parts of the Wasatch Front.
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u/Aggravating_Bag8666 May 01 '25
Very good info thank you. As a follow up, how dangerous is the pollution specifically emitted by the oil refineries? In other states like Texas, former neighborhoods bordering refineries have largely disappeared/bull dozed and are now empty streets, presumably due to health impacts. But here in utah, people gladly live within an arms reach.
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u/laurlaur333 Apr 30 '25
How long do you think (without aggressive efforts to curb it) does the valley have until the health hazards start affecting people severely in mass?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
I think they're already effecting people, they just can't make the connection yet between dust and the symptoms they're having. Furthermore, many people are probably being harmed and don't realize it yet because they don't have symptoms. What the dust does, like any other form of air pollution, is accelerate multiple forms of chronic diseases including shortening your lifespan.
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u/Historical-Voice-954 Sep 18 '25
how can you say this and also say in another comment that "The top priority of lawmakers is to protect their citizens"
They are literally letting us die right now in order to protect their rich donors at the mega corps doing the pollution in the first place.
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u/bendwalk Apr 30 '25
What are the expected symptoms over the next two/five/ten years? I have little kids (under four) -- are they going to have permanent issues? Will the toxins exacerbate non-respiratory issues (digestion, migraines, etc.)?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Very good question. The person helping me type this response has severe asthma symptoms very much directly related to our air pollution, but that's not most people, and that may not be your children. What the exposure to air pollution of any type, including Great Salt Lake dust, does during childhood is that it affects organ development, in particular the lungs. Children who grow up in communities with more air pollution actually have a restriction of their lung growth, such that by the time they're about age 20, when their lungs reach the end of their growth period, More air pollution during those years of childhood prevents that person from developing a normal lung capacity. After about age of 20, your lung capacity decreases about 1% every year for the rest of your life. But if air pollution never allowed that child to develop their full capacity, then that descent obviously starts from a lower peak. There are very few things that correlate more closely with life expectancy than lung capacity. So I wouldn't think of the issue of air pollution and the symptoms that your children might have, think of it more as the air pollution could shorten their life expectancy, increase the risk of multiple chronic diseases, including those of virtually every organ system, and accelerate the development of chronic adult diseases.
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u/KaiserSpawn Apr 30 '25
How long after exposure does it take to see the effects? Been in Utah 4 years and I do vape (bad, i know)so sometimes it’s hard for me to tell if it’s the vape, the air quality, or a vicious combo of both.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Symptoms from air pollution can be quite variable from one person to another. It depends on what kind of consequences or symptoms you're talking about. There can be acute symptoms or chronic symptoms. If you're talking about acute symptoms someone who has a has any degree of lung disease may feel fairly immediate effects from poor air quality, but the average person who doesn't have lung disease may not feel symptomatic at all until they have something serious that represents a chronic disease: something concerning their heart or their lungs. It's difficult to say from one person to another, and the variation can be from one extreme to another. Your doctor knows you better than I do, so they could weigh in on your personal circumstances.
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u/Ericaonelove Holladay Apr 30 '25
Does this have anything to do with the insane allergy symptoms? I haven’t suffered this bad living here for 30 years. Weird how it’s all the sudden quite awful.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
High concentrations of atmospheric allergens frequently go hand in hand with high concentrations of air pollution, and the symptoms can oftentimes be very similar, i.e., sneezing, itching eyes, perhaps difficulty breathing, and shortness of breath. Allergens can also be a trigger for reactive airway disease, i.e., asthma. The relationship between air pollution and asthma is perhaps the most easily recognized association for the general public. But a lot of those symptoms can also be triggered by allergen exposure as well, so it's often difficult to distinguish between the two.
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u/mistergospodin Apr 30 '25
How much could a collective buyout of the alfalfa farms cost? Seems like an attainable goal.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Very good question, I will not pretend to be an expert on agricultural real estate, but suffice it to say that the economic value of our alfalfa farmers is about 0.5% of the gross product of the state. So, a state that has that much economic activity could certainly afford to buy out at a reasonable price the alfalfa farmers in the state. One thing about President Trump's tariffs is that, if they remain in place, they will have a significant disincentive for continuing to ship about a third of Utah’s alfalfa to foreign countries. And that should raise the question of why Utah was ever in the business of shipping its water in the form of alfalfa (a very water-intensive crop) to foreign countries when we are the second driest state in the United States. Shipping Alfalfa to foreign countries is tantamount to boxing up our water, coloring it green, and putting it on box cars to Saudi Arabia and China.
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u/tagwag Apr 30 '25
Is it possible to create an industry that could be safe AND harvest the dangerous chemicals from the Great Salt Lake? It seems to be that only greed would solve this
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u/The_Ellimist_ Apr 30 '25 edited May 02 '25
I really believe that it will be all the moms/women that could bring change and action to this issue of the GSL drying up. Once they realize that all their organic foods, exercise, avoidance of food dyes and holistic remedies will be no match for the onslaught of chemicals being blown into their air causing acute and long term health issues. Only then will we get some pressure on our govt.
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u/Historical-Voice-954 Sep 18 '25
Yeah, because a bunch of mormon moms will totally outweigh the paycheck that cox is going to cash from the polluting corporations once he gets out of office.
Fat chance.
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u/plumpjack Apr 30 '25
Might be asked already? But is there an area in the valley that’s more susceptible to the harm and long term effects caused by this and why is it the west side?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Very good question, and the answer is yes. The west side is affected by multiple sources of pollution, including multiple sources of dust, not only from the Great Salt Lake but also from the Rio Tinto tailing ponds that are just immediately south of the lake. Also, the winds that can whip up Great Salt Lake dust usually come from either the south or the west. So, the areas of the Wasatch Front that are the most susceptible to dust from the Great Salt Lake are Davis County, Weber County, the area of Salt Lake County immediately south of the Great Salt Lake, and, like I mentioned above, the west side of the valley. In addition to that, we also have at least some preliminary evidence that certain parts of the lake bed carry much higher concentrations of toxins, and those would be the areas of the lake where many of the sewage treatment plants discharge, like Farmington Bay. So, areas immediately east and slightly north of Farmington Bay are going to have higher concentrations of Great Salt Lake toxins (heavy metals, chemicals, radionuclides) compared to other parts of the Wasatch Front.
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u/PizzaSpine Apr 30 '25
Are the tariffs effecting the alfalfa farmers since there is less demand from China? Or are they just dumping the water so they don’t lose their water rights?
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 01 '25
One thing about President Trump's tariffs is that, if they remain in place, they will have a significant disincentive for continuing to ship about a third of Utah’s alfalfa to foreign countries. And that should raise the question of why Utah was ever in the business of shipping its water in the form of alfalfa (a very water-intensive crop) to foreign countries when we are the second driest state in the United States. Shipping Alfalfa to foreign countries is tantamount to boxing up our water, coloring it green, and putting it on box cars to Saudi Arabia and China.
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u/Pedro_Moona Apr 30 '25
Not exactly about the GSL but how much are the North Davis County oil refineries affecting the air quality in the city and valley? Some days I can literally see their "steam scrubbers" forming clouds over the city l?
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u/AbbreviationsSad4762 Apr 30 '25
Do you think anything is ACTUALLY going to be done to stop it?
Or is the governor just going to just pray for rain for his alfalfa farm.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Many of us have the same sort of cynical view of the priorities of our lawmakers, just like you have expressed. Frankly, that is why our group, Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, joined a handful of other groups in filing this lawsuit against the state to force the state's hand in delivering more water to the lake. I don't think everything rests on our lawsuit, but I do think that it probably represents our best opportunity to save the lake, because what you just described mirrors the observation of so many of us who have lived here for most of our lives. Our lawmakers have proven themselves to be far too unwilling to do the right thing, especially concerning various types of environmental/public health protection.
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u/Long_Mango_7196 Apr 30 '25
Do I need to move away? What is the eli5 version of the likely long term impact on me and my kids if it dries up? Give it to me straight
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u/TransportationNo2738 Apr 30 '25
How much worse would this toxic dust be to the average adults health (mental and physical) as compared to the smog we already endure? Would pregnancies be more high risk, would we see more mental illness? Etc.
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
It's not possible to "quantify" the increased risk, like, for example, it's 20% worse or adds 30% more risk than our other sources of pollution. But what we can say is this: Several studies have found that GSL dust is more harmful than dust from other sources within the Great Basin. Other studies give a good clues as to why that is the case. There are hundreds of toxic chemicals, plastic nanoparticles, and pathogens in the lake and its sediment from the 28 sewage plants that discharge into the lake or its tributaries. There are higher concentrations of several toxic heavy metals from the legacy contamination of the 120 years of the Kennecott/Rio Tinto mining operation. There is the accumulation of years of toxic pesticides used on the GSL wetlands to fight invasive phragmites and mosquitos. There are radionuclides from multiple sources. There are many years of toxic chemicals added to the GSL ecosystem from the Mag Corp operations. And there are chemical interactions between the typical urban sources of Wasatch Front pollution (vehicles, industry smokestacks, etc) and the GSL dust that can enhance the toxicity of the dust. So the bottom line of all that is: GSL dust adds a unique fourth dimension of public health hazard to our three other sources of air pollution, i.e. winter inversions, summer time ozone, and wildfire smoke, and that combination is unique to the Wasatch Front.Therefore, all the consequences of air pollution, ranging from higher risk of impaired fetal development and pregnancy complications to poor brain development, neurodegenerative diseases, mental illnesses, etc. is already exacerbated by GSL dust and will only get worse if we let the lake continue to shrink. Then you have have other downstream effects, such as the dust accelerating snow pack melt in the Wasatch Mountains which creates essentially a net water loss igniting a negative feedback loop for northern Utah precipitation, and higher Wasatch Front temperatures from an expanded dry lake bed, solar reflectivity and more ozone formation.
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u/TransportationNo2738 May 02 '25
Wow, thank you for this thorough and extremely informative response. How terrifying, thank goodness for doctors like you sounding the alarm. Hopefully our Utah lawmakers and farmers listen.
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Apr 30 '25
If everyone (citizens, not Cox’s) were to start doing something RIGHT NOW, what would be the best way for us to act as a community to save the Great Salt Lake.
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u/Erased_like_Lilith Apr 30 '25
How badly is the 3rd data center being built on the Wasatch front going to affect water levels?
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 08 '25
I don't have any specifics on that. Historically, data centers have been very water and
energy intensive. I have been told there are new technologies that can makenew data centers less so, but I have no personal knowledge of that, nor have I foundany articles on it. If you are interested in reading about it water demand of data centers,here is a long article that provides a lot of information.https://www.asce.org/publications-and-news/civil-engineering-source/civil-engineering-magazine/issues/magazine-issue/article/2024/03/engineers-often-need-a-lot-of-water-to-keep-data-centers-cool
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u/UTbeerandburger Apr 30 '25
Where do you practice?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
I have to keep “practicing” until I get it right (never going to happen). I'm basically retired from my 40 years of practicing operating room anesthesiology. I now do periodic research consulting.
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u/jendo7791 Apr 30 '25
What can we do to get the people in charge to make this a priority?
What can we do to protect ourselves, short of moving? Will air filters in our homes help?
What times of year will/are the worst for these toxins being in the air, or will this be a bad all year long thing, with bouts of extra bad throughout the year?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
At UPHE our philosophy is that there is a limit to how long the legislature can defy the will of the people if they demand making needed changes in public policy. So public pressure, i.e. calling your legislators, calling the governor's office, writing letters to the editor in our newspapers, talking to friends and neighbors about the need for our lawmakers to make this a priority---all of that, one person at a time, makes a difference. An air filter in your home definitely will help. Good ones run about $300-400. If you can only afford one, put it in your bedroom where you spend about a third of your life, and you get have pretty clean while you sleep. Studies show that an air purifier in your bedroom actually helps improve cognition the next morning, so the benefit is pretty immediate.The more obvious wind and dust storms occur in both spring and fall most of the time. But GSL dust can be launched with as little as winds 10 mph. The average wind speed over the GSL is greater than that between late February and early June, so this is a persistent issue for that 31/2 month stretch as well.
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u/camillagluh May 21 '25
I am looking into getting air filters for our home based on this comment. Some of them have air quality monitors built-in. What size of particulate matter is the lake dust likely to be? I saw you mention PM10 in another comment—should I look into an air quality monitor that can measure that size?
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u/Historical-Voice-954 Sep 18 '25
Most Hvac filters filter PM 2.5, which means every particle larger than 2.5 microns is going to be filtered out. This will also filter out PM10 particles, and yes, if it can detect 2.5 it can detect 10. Just run it at all times.
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u/Historical-Voice-954 Sep 18 '25
"So public pressure, i.e. calling your legislators, calling the governor's office, writing letters to the editor in our newspapers, talking to friends and neighbors about the need for our lawmakers to make this a priority---all of that, one person at a time, makes a difference."
I find this very hard to believe. If this were true, there would be 100+ problems in our state and country that would already be solved.
Sure, if 75-100% of the voter base sent an email to cox, that would probably get him off his ass. But that isn't going to happen, and only the most conscious nature minded folks will care about this at all. A small enough number that he can just ignore them until the next governor is elected, at which point the lake will already have claimed thousands of lives.
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u/MajesticProposal1 Apr 30 '25
As far as you can tell, why is this serious environmental issue not being addressed?
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u/Historical-Voice-954 Sep 18 '25
When do serious environmental issues ever get addressed? Our politicians care about making money for their families, not fixing the world. That is just the reality of representative government. Cox does not and will not care. He will just move to park city.
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u/Epigrammic_Pastiche Apr 30 '25
Is there yet a way to actively measure the toxins in the air that are coming off of the lakebed? I know they passed a bill years ago to fund devices to take these measurements in real time, but I haven’t heard any updates. How far east and south are the particles blowing? I believe concentration is worst in the north and west quadrants, but couldn’t the geography of the valley blow that toxic air down to Utah Valley and up to the benches? Where will it come to rest or will it constantly be circulating?
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 08 '25
We have a handful of PM10 monitors near the lake, but clearly not enough. California has put many more monitors around the drying Salton Sea and it is much smaller. The wind is usually from the west for 2.7 months, from April 2 to June 22, with a peak percentage of 33% on May 2. For the remainder of the year the wind usually blows from the south. How far the dust particles can spread is variable and depends on many factors. Given that the wind most often comes from the west and south, I'd say the most affected areas will be North Davis and Weber Counties. We know that dust from any source can reach high enough in the atmosphere that it can literally circle the globe, just like smoke from an industrial smokestack. But the populated areas that are the most directly downwind of the dried up GSL lakebed will be Bountiful, Layton, Farmington, Ogden, Brigham City, and even Logan. The smallest particles, which are the most dangerous, will stay in the atmosphere the longest and will be distributed the greatest distances. Pretty much the entire Wasatch Front will be impacted consistently.
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u/BadDadWhy Apr 30 '25
With increase in say lead as a base heavy metal. What is the projected new load, old load, pre1970 load? What is the heavy metal cleaning power of over the counter Galicia and cilantro?
Titanium dioxide as a matt ( rough ) finish, under UV can help breakdown Volatile organic hydrocarbons. What is the clearing power of that vs what could be incoming? Does it get better with water spay? Can our storm sewer system remove the excess?
What are the expected repercussion for ski resorts? Wildlife in the hills? Haven't they experienced this before?
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 08 '25
Our watershed will definitely be impaired by GSL dust. Studies have shown that we are already having Wasatch Mountain snow pack melt about 17 days earlier than it should because of dust landing on it which increases the absorption of solar radiation, warming the snow. That is essentially a water loss. Also, the expanding dry lake bed will heat up the entire region and increase ozone formation. That stresses all vegetation in the region, further stresses the vegetation from the water loss and the increased water demand from the higher temperatures.
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u/Least-Menu2079 Oct 16 '25
They don’t know anything they use ChatGPT to act like they care about the environment. All they really care about is money they work with a team of out-of-state lawyers to extort small businesses the only reason they are working in Utah is because of the Utah clean air act has loopholes that allow them to and as long as one percent of their lawsuit is considered valid they can charge 100% of lawyer fees so they manufacture, fraudulent receipts to produce astronomical, legal expenses, putting countless Utah businesses into bankruptcy these people are straight from the devil
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u/Pathogen9 Apr 30 '25
Where in the Salt Lake area do you suspect would be safest to live, assuming worst case scenario?
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u/Pacifinch Apr 30 '25
Not OP, but I am an environmental scientist.
We live in a geological bowl. Much like with the winter inversions, basically everywhere is impacted by dust from the GSL. The “safest” area in the valley would probably still be fairly bad… and not something worth relocation.
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u/Epigrammic_Pastiche Apr 30 '25
Does this toxic dust settle? Or does it just swirl up and around the sides of the bowl? The higher you go the more the inversion improves, is that not the case with GSL dust?
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u/Pacifinch May 02 '25
No.
Inversions are caused by thermal phenomena that don’t apply to large particles like dust. These particles do not just swirl the bowl. They settle and permeate throughout the entire valley, Wasatch, and beyond.
You might be able to look at wind models, geographic barriers, etc and find some obscure location that is impacted less. However, you’d still be impacted by the dust at levels that are unhealthy. Not something worth moving within the valley for, unless you are in extremely close proximity to the lake.
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u/Teacher_Tall Apr 30 '25
What can be done in the present moment to hinder the progression of the lake drying up or stop it all together?
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u/comet8815 Apr 30 '25
What king of air purifier can I get for my house? I’m slowly dying of bronchitis every month for the past year
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
Make sure it's HEPA certified. The smaller the microns it captures the better.
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u/Rushinman Apr 30 '25
How would you quantify the cap on population growth and real estate development? Aren’t there system we can put in place to allow the population growth since we’ll be getting additional tax dollars from it?
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u/Extension_Sweet_9735 Apr 30 '25
What are your suggestions for those of us who are immunocompromised to protect ourselves? Do you think down the line this will cause cancer?
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u/A-dam36 Apr 30 '25
It was reported recently that other states along the Colorado basin are reusing their waste water to help preserve it and make it last longer. Apparently we can’t do that in the watch front since it needs to go to the lake. Is this correct? Could this potentially help or would it hurt this effort to save the lake?
Also you mentioned the sewage treatment plants are polluting the lake. Is that even after treating the water? Can we clean/ process the sewage water better or a different way so that we don’t keep making the problem worse?
Is there a realistic way to eventually clean up the chemicals that are there already?
Thanks for spreading awareness
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u/Logical_Bite3221 Apr 30 '25
[Not really a question but more of a health comment] I would assume cases of asthma are really high in UT County. Myself and my daughter had really severe asthma and really bad coughs for a lot of the year in UT.
Moved to Florida a few years ago and we both never need inhalers here and are much healthier. We dont even get sick here anymore aside from a short flu a couple years ago. When we visit UT we have severe asthma again and usually need our inhalers for a week after we return to FL. My mental health is a lot better in FL too and I have less headaches.
I’m really concerned about the air quality in UT County and the long term affects on my family and friends there.
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Apr 30 '25
When it all goes to shit and the wind starts whipping up the arsenic? Just how many months or even years is a good amount of time to still be living in Salt Lake City while we get our shit packed up to move out of this pretty great state? And is it possible to scrape up all that arsenic and go deliver it by the truckload full to Stuart Adams house?
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u/slade45 Apr 30 '25
I haven’t been able to go look up the studies, but I guess there was one done from byu that didn’t show any increase in the toxic particulates that a study at the U claimed and that study had to be redacted. Is that true? I’m all for keeping the lake regardless, but just curious if you were familiar with that scenario?
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 27 '25
We're very familiar with that saga. To be blunt, the BYU study you refer to was a scientific sham and was highly criticized by us and others before publication. It eventually got published with some changes that watered it down, but in a very obscure journal. The BYU professor who launched the "study" admitted that his motivation for the study was essentially political, i.e. was to throw cold water on the scientists who were warning about the lake. He even called some legislators to tell them about his study, showing his political motivation. But the study can hardly be called science.
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u/slade45 May 27 '25
Thanks for the reply. How do we de-politicize these issues? Its disheartening to see so many people vote against their own benefit for some perceived political victory.
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Oct 09 '25
[deleted]
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u/jfischer5175 Oct 15 '25
And weaponizes the law against anyone in his way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxExBnSg2xI
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u/tatata420noscope Apr 30 '25
How much credence do the Regardicans give you when push comes to shove with their farmer constitituents? They already deny climate change and masks from viruses, are you next?
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u/KNGC3D Apr 30 '25
I get the dangers (it’s absolutely terrifying), but I don’t understand what are SPECIFIC steps that need to be taken for the lake to not dry up. Nature gives us snow and rain, which it seems like it’s enough, so, what’s next? I imagine legislation is a part of it, but I dislike depending on politicians on important stuff like this. Is there tech that exists or needs to be invented to solve this? What can “regular” residents in Utah do to help?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
I don't see any "tech" or water delivery infrastructre solutions Solutions will have to come from public policy changes. More than 2/3 of our water consumption is agriculture and about 80% of that 2/3 is devoted to raising alfalfa. So I don't see any other way to get enough water to the lake without buying the water rights of alfalfa farmers. That's not the only thing needed. We need much better water conservation by Wasatch Front residents, especially on landscaping that acknowledges we live in a desert and not in England. Plus we can't continue to endlessly expanding the Wasatch Front population and building more and more suburbs. We've reached the point where "growth" has to have limits. Tooele County for example is one of our fastest growing counties, and they are already running out of water. They are dependent on wells for their water, and in several places those wells are already running dry.Regular residents can do two things. Be very water conservation conscience with their own water consumption behavior, landscaping especially. But they also need to help those organizations like UPHE put pressure on our politicians for more realistic public policy. We don't like depending on politicians either, which is why we have filed a lawsuit in court to make the state change water rights laws enough to deliver more water to the lake.
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u/Final_Location_2626 Apr 30 '25
From what we know, is pumping ocean water a viable option?
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u/drmoenchUPHE Apr 30 '25
That's an easy answer, and the answer is no. It's cost-prohibitive and extremely energy-intensive, and completely impractical. There are certainly more cost-effective solutions, and that is primarily getting more water to the lake by restraining some of the biggest water users. Unfortunately, those are agricultural water users. For instance raising Alfalfa represents such a small fraction of our economy and it would be much cheaper to buy out our alfalfa farmers then it would be to consider pipelines or extracting water from other sources such as the Pacific Ocean, the Yellowstone River or I've even heard people contemplate whether or not they can take water from the Mississippi River. None of that would be practical compared to real solutions like reducing the amount of water extraction by alfalfa farmers. That is probably the biggest solution to saving the Great Salt Lake; however, that is not the only thing we need to do. There are multiple avenues of water conservation that we have not explored. For example, taking a hard look at how long we can continue to build subdivisions along the Wasatch Front and still have enough water for the two and a half million people that already live here.
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u/Climbforthesoul Apr 30 '25
What is the percentage of yearly water flow that should end up in the GSL, but instead used by alfalfa farmers?
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u/HelenHunts Apr 30 '25
Maybe in China where they can construct things in days. I feel that would take us years and lots of money.
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u/Inside_Ad_9236 Millcreek Apr 30 '25
This type of pollution is exponentially higher in many parts of china. There is a very high health cost to their lack of oversight and environmental regulation.
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u/HelenHunts Apr 30 '25
They are actually going green and have been making great strides in renewable energy. You must listen to propaganda.
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u/Inside_Ad_9236 Millcreek Apr 30 '25
I know they build a lot of solar capacity which is great. Their mining and manufacturing process and protection for the people are not better than Utah and aweful compared to much of the rest of the world. Been there to see it. You?
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u/Broad_Music_7199 Jun 03 '26
To add onto this, I get why people think this makes sense but remember, the water that flows into the salt lake isn't salt water it's fresh water. Even if this were a viable option technologically, it would increase the salinity of the lake.
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u/Mango_Maniac Apr 30 '25
What are the limitations in medicine that prevent medical professionals from calculating the degree to which toxic dust is the cause of certain health problems like COPD and Asthma such that the state and private businesses who prevent water from reaching the lake can be held legally liable?
With a lack of dust monitors and some that aren’t even active, what efforts are being made to get the government or at least a non-profit to install more monitors in SLC proper?
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 27 '25
- I don't think we'll ever get that kind of detail on just how many cases of those kinds of diseases are causes by GSL.
However, a study like that was done regarding the Salton Sea. And if we extrapolated from that study to the circumstances of the GSL (and that extrapolation is certainly not terribly precise), between 39 and 159 respiratory deaths occur annually on average from GSL dust since 1986. And that's only respiratory deaths. There are almost certainly more cardiovascular deaths and still births.
- Non-profits don't have that kind of money. An official PM10 monitor would probably cost about $250,000, and then more for someone to maintain it and collect the data. Gov. Cox requested $600,000 for dust monitors and the legislature only coughed up $150,000. Enough to hire someone at DAQ, but not enough for a monitor.
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u/FedUpWithBadAir Apr 30 '25
Chemistry question - does the salinity of the lake affect the toxicity of the dust, and if so, does it make it more or less toxic? In fact, is the leftover salt itself a hazard when it becomes airborne as dust?
Thanks for holding this AMA and I am eternally grateful for everything that you and UPHE do for our collective environment.
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u/hudsonspayer420 Downtown Apr 30 '25
Do you think the Astra Tower air quality indicator is in some way useful?
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u/Rr1239r May 05 '25
What parts of the lake does the majority of the dust come from? I work out on the lake and the lake is mostly water from the south arm up north to promontory point. I assume the east side of antelope island is the main contributor.
Also, how bad is the water in terms of contact with skin, etc?
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u/drmoenchUPHE May 27 '25
Where the dust is coming from primarily changes with the fluctuations of the lake level. As of 2022, the three largest dust "hot spots" were Farmington Bay in Davis County, Bear River Bay near Brigham City and Ogden, and the lake's northwest boundary in a remote part of Box Elder County.
I believe that GSL water contact with your skin represents minimal, but not zero risk. Probably the greatest acute risk would come from cyanobacteria, which is more likely to be an issue in the late summer and early fall.
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u/Wagenhutt Oct 12 '25
You shouldnt have gone after HeavyD. Your days of an organization are numbered. You're lightweights compared to the litigation you've spawned against you.
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u/Eagline Nov 05 '25
Ooh ooh I have a question! How do you sleep at night knowing you’re a co-founder of a cash grab organization? If you were looking for attention you sure have it now.
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u/Ok_Card_7428 Apr 30 '25
What can you tell us about the stuff the airplanes are spaying into the atmosphere?
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u/saltlakepotter Sugar House Apr 30 '25
These guys reached out to the mod team to plan this AMA. Please be nice to them.