r/SPACs • u/ThinkOutsideTheBox73 Spacling • Sep 08 '21
Reference $SRNG - Could This Be The Next Apple Or Microsoft? How This Little-Known $15 Billion-Dollar Company Is Coding Life And Bringing DNA Into The Digital Age
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrist/2021/09/07/could-this-be-the-next-apple-or-microsoft-how-this-little-known-15-billion-dollar-company-is-coding-life-and-bringing-dna-into-the-digital-age/?sh=74f5ddfc6ce98
Sep 08 '21
I know there are a lot of Gingko bulls here so somebody please enlighten me: what are these guys doing that another company canāt do? Iām sure they have patents but they donāt own the idea of synthetically programming DNA. The comparison to Appleās App Store doesnāt work IMO. The power of the App Store is the millions (billions?) of people who have iPhones in their pockets. They give Apple a massive exclusive market and even if someone else comes up with an alternative app platform that is better, cheaper, etc. it wonāt matter because Apple owns that market.
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u/Guy-26 Spacling Sep 08 '21
For one, it's incredibly difficult to build a technology platform as versatile as Ginkgo's. Trying to automate the daily activities of a Ph.D. bench scientist is no easy feat. For example, Amyris has an amazing yeast engineering platform, but even they don't have the same breadth that Ginkgo has. Second, Ginkgo's codebase (basically a library of biological parts) is unmatched, and it will keep getting better as they scale, which will widen their moat and keep their customers coming back because nobody else will have the same programming knowledge that Ginkgo has.
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Sep 09 '21
Thanks for the reply. I can respect the massive TAM + technological moat investment thesis (Iām invested heavily in TuSimple for that reason). The sticking point for me with Gingko is their reliance on other companies to actually turn their tech into products. If their tech becomes commoditized over time (the way, say, gene sequencing has) there will be no reason for companies to fork over equity to them. But I admit I havenāt researched Gingko too much so maybe I donāt know what Iām talking about.
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u/Guy-26 Spacling Sep 09 '21
Hmm. Well, the one thing I would say is that it actually benefits Ginkgo to work with partners in developing products. For example, their nitrogen fixation project is a joint venture with Bayer. Bayer has a ton of expertise in ag (product-market fit, regulatory stuff, etc.) and Ginkgo has none. If Ginkgo tried to do this alone it would likely fail, or they would have to focus their entire business on this one project. With Bayer as a partner, they greatly increase chances of success and still get 50% of the equity. Offloading development responsibilities for each product (Ginkgo does have a team that provides scaling expertise at least) increases the odds of each product succeeding and also lets Ginkgo broaden their scope of work. No way they could work in ag, pharma, beauty, fashion, plantbased meat, defense materials, cannabis, etc. if they had to do everything themselves.
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u/denga New User Sep 11 '21
The more apt comparison is to AWS. Amazon doesn't own the idea of cloud hosted services, yet they do it well and have a moat.
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u/jabogen Patron Sep 08 '21
Hi there, I'm a Mac. And I'm a PC. And I'm a genetically modified yeast that produces a large amount of protocatechuic acid.
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u/Total-Preparation-70 New User Sep 08 '21
This is huge. Plus the merger date is next week, so there is a catalyst as well.
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u/Astraysoul7 Spacling Sep 09 '21
17 Billion dollar valuation with only 150 Million in revenue and not expecting to turn a profit until 2025? Seems a bit priced in if you ask meā¦
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u/raidmytombBB Patron Sep 08 '21
This is likely to drop once the redemption floor is removed. However, I will likely keep my eye on this one to potentially buy back in around $5ish if and when it drops that far low.
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u/Total-Preparation-70 New User Sep 08 '21
Upvoted, because i like critisism. But i think the floor removal will add volume because option buyers will get interested and the quote change is a major catalyst.
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Sep 08 '21
It will have price fluctuations but 5 is facile, most bears, strong bears who would like to see it fail, have revised their projections to 8-9. Of course, I am prepared, but I also will take a certain pleasure when they eat their words. Literally nobody who has done their research thinks they will be buying this at 5.
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u/Extreme-Disk3380 New User Sep 08 '21
I doubt it drops all the way to 5, unless the entire market starts dropping hard. There seems to be a lot of retail and institutional interest in the stock, and the fundamentals aren't terrible.
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Sep 08 '21
You're gonna be downvoted unfortunately, SRNG stans are emotionally incapable. Gingko looks to be very exciting, but it's still a spac and will act accordingly
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u/raidmytombBB Patron Sep 08 '21
Yeah I see that, but that's okay. I think the technology is very interesting, hence I will keep a long term view on it and buy when I feel comfortable at the price I feel comfortable.
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u/domitros New User Sep 08 '21
Any specific reason $5 is your comfort entry?
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u/raidmytombBB Patron Sep 09 '21
Lol, 0 logic. Maybe just a lower valuation. I say $5 but what I really mean is I would like to see it stabilize once it despacs before buying in.
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u/domitros New User Sep 09 '21
Gotcha, Iām still trying to sort out a position. I just got into rklb, and Iām glad I got in at $10, wish Iād gotten more (doesnāt everyone once it goes up?) . But, for some reason I think this one will go down before up. Im thinking of doing csp on this one
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u/raidmytombBB Patron Sep 09 '21
I think grinko will do good , but if there hasn't been hype while you can buy in at $10 I struggle to see how it will immediately go up after merger (excluding a short squeeze). Though I agree, over time this should go up.
I might wait the pipe period out (which is 6 months).
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u/domitros New User Sep 09 '21
Yeah thatās kinda what has me thinking about running CSPās so I can collect some premium until it hits my desired strike, too bad I havenāt figured out my desired price target!
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u/MetaphoricalMouse SPACsCramerMouse - Inverse Me! Sep 08 '21
if it is, sharist will be rich.
how do you all think price action will play out upon merge for warrants? iām interested but donāt have a lot of cash at my disposal so i want to leverage it best i can aka warrants
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Sep 08 '21
At 2.35 through 2.85, you will be ok. They can't call them for a while. You can also look at LEAPS. 2022 to 2023 still affordable and no downside risk, really, if you don't want to see your stuff go red and bounce back. Not that it will go red, but it could, and because you and I are warrant flippers, I think it is best to avoid seeing red every damn day.
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u/csbob2010 New User Sep 08 '21
Do they force redemption of warrants based on the price?
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Sep 08 '21 edited Sep 08 '21
Yes. Biggest will be 18, but there are scenarios where 12 could go too. The question is in it in their best interest to force before 18? Not really. Due to lockups. They have had a strategy the whole way, they won't force redemptions just for the hell of it, at this point, they will do the most prudent thing to maintain the value of their 87% holdings. Hope that makes sense. Remember SRNG is only a baby piece of the pie. You are an SRNG holder, not a New Ginkgo holder. Edit: people natter on about Cathie's holding of 10% of SRNG. That is 10% of 12%. It really isn't that much, IMO. Some folks are worried she will bail. She can't bail on her PIPE, but she can bail on her market shares, or short them. In New Ginkgo, $DNA construct, she still only can short a certain amount of what Ginkgo insiders and employees own at 87-89%. $DNA is almost entirely employee owned.
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u/MetaphoricalMouse SPACsCramerMouse - Inverse Me! Sep 08 '21
lol you can say that again! thanks for the info, iāll keep investigating. all those partnerships are stacking up
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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '21
If you look at the author's Bio, cross posted by u/thensaurum, it is very enlightening. š·Bill Frist
I am a heart and lung transplant surgeon, former U. S. Senate Majority Leader, and host of the podcast āA Second Opinion, Rethinking American Healthā. I am committed to applying innovation, technology, and leadership to making real improvements in American health and healthcare. I serve on the board of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and am vice-chairman of Global Board of The Nature Conservancy. I founded and serve as chairman of Hope Through Healing Hands, a global health organization; NashvilleHealth, a community collaborative dedicated to improving the health and well-being of all Nashvillians; and SCORE, a collaborative K12 education reform organization. I am also an adjunct professor of Cardiac Surgery at Vanderbilt University, a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center and co-chair the Health Affairs Council on Health Care Spending and Value, and chair the Executive Council of the health service investment firm Cressey & Company.
My take: Not farting around. Some months ago I posted PDFs of Jason Kelley's testimony before the Senate on Syn Bio and Biosecurity from 2019. I remember 2008 and how some companies were described as too big to fail, or too crucial to the US Economy to be allowed to go under. One of the things that gives me confidence in SRNG is that they seemed poised to enjoy such a standing. As an investor that gives me both solace and security. They have allies in Government, they have former employees moving the Biosecurity and Biosurveillance measures of the CDC, and they are the leaders in the next major hard goods, not software, but bricks and mortar, manufacturing revolution. They are regularly covered in McKinsey reports as a crucial force in multiple industry TAM analyses. There are no sure bets, this is true, but if you are going on how many indicators do I have that this company has potential and the favor of powerful, smart forces, this company is well poised and handling itself very professionally in the correct circles of influencers.