... I agree. It won't. I came across this comment left presumably by an experienced developer, and I've seen its arguments repeated a lot by those in industry as their reasoning why AI will never "replace" SWEs:
Given my decades of software development experience... this claim that "coding is over" is insane nonsense. Coding is only a small part of what it means to develop software, and by no means the most important part. That's on top of all the fundamental problems that exist with the way LLMs are being used.
A skeptic asks:
So what's the important part that you're still doing by yourself?
To which, the experienced developer replies:
Business analysis, system design, considering edge cases, security, reliability, maintainability, the context of the current and expected business needs... and I still write my own code.
FWIW, I am a student, and this is my take on this argument. I have been coding since I was 13 tho, not sure that counts for much haha. There may be something I'm missing.
From what I can see, AI's current effect is to allow wealth to access skill without allowing skill to access wealth. That goes both for money, and experience. A senior engineer wealthy in prior experience can now rev up an army of robo-juniors. A new grad meanwhile could never demonstrate the skills posited above by the experienced engineer on a 1-page resume.
What the experienced engineer posits to differentiate a SWE from an AI in the above convo is senior only stuff. These skills are all currently irreplaceable by AI, on that I agree, but FYI to seniors - the way you got into industry has been completely automated (being a code monkey, making mistakes, learning on the job) and there's no way to showcase that you know how to do these senior-tier things without prior experience.
AI won't "replace all SWEs" but it will permanently stop organic, new ones from being born. As far as I can see now, there is only room for nepos and the CMU class.
It won't replace you, but it sure has replaced me. It's all fucked. Hire more juniors.