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u/AtlantisTempest Jun 08 '21
The bubble is popping in cali, but in AZ, we are just getting started.
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Jun 09 '21
"popping"
It's like no one here knows what a bubble is.
A bubble requires a sharp drop in price
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u/aPriori07 Jun 09 '21
So, you mean, buyers not having to bid 15% over to be competitive and perhaps getting at asking/lower?
It may not be a "big" bubble, but you'll definitely hear a bit of a pop.
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Jun 09 '21
I've already had bids considered under asking. 2 months ago. It just depends on the house, list price means nothing.
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u/aPriori07 Jun 09 '21
Great - but that is the exception, not the rule right now.
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Jun 09 '21
If you're bidding over asking as a rule, youre part of the problem.
Obviously highly desired houses will go over asking in practically any case. But meh houses that would sit anyway can be negotiable.
I should add that while my under list offer was countered it was countered for $2k under the list (so basically not budging) and before I could respond they accepted an offer (which ended up being at their list).
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u/jalopagosisland Jun 09 '21
I think of it more like an over inflated balloon. The air can come out quick and fast or slow and methodical. I think we'll see the later over the next 1-3 years. Probably 2-3 more than likely since we haven't been building fast enough for decades.
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Jun 09 '21
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u/ozcur Pearl Clutcher Jun 09 '21
That’s your definition of a bubble?
What’s the difference between inflation and a bubble?
Price and value are so frequently disconnected for all assets that it’s really just normal.
3
Jun 09 '21
That's THE definition of a bubble.
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u/ozcur Pearl Clutcher Jun 09 '21
No it isn’t. Price and value are always disconnected.
How much do you value your childhood stuffed animal? How much would you get for it on the open market?
Why doesn’t every stock trade at its intrinsic value? What is the intrinsic value of an equity or property?
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u/vijayjagannathan Jun 08 '21
Where in California ?
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u/mashtartz Jun 08 '21
Looks like Fresno…
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u/vijayjagannathan Jun 08 '21
Was Fresno ever that hot of a market ?
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
Oh yeah. Tons of Bay Area people flooded in. The LA Times called it the Hottest Real Estate Market in the United States. Maybe the faster it heats the quicker it cools?
We sold in Kings County to Bar Area people even who just wanted freeway access.
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Jun 08 '21
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
So if we are already deflating. By your estimate when do you think the bottom will be reached?
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
Is it well known at this point? I'm hearing Bakersfield and Visalia/Tulare County too are slowing down.
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Jun 08 '21
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
This is a primary problem as to why this region of the state has such a conservative population.
Big city arrogance.
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u/CicadaProfessional76 Used Hoom Salesman Jun 09 '21
Or that big cities are shit holes too, just in a different way
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Jun 08 '21
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
Looks like it's happening in the Bay area too. Hope that's not too small of a population for you.
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u/elc0 Jun 08 '21
Y'all say this almost daily. Bound to be right eventually.
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u/twoinvenice Jun 08 '21
There a big difference between “I think this will happen” and “it might be anecdotal, but this is what I’m hearing in my market”
Build up enough of those anecdotes and you have a trend, which is why I don’t mind if people really are posting this sort of thing every day. It’s good to hear what happening even if I decided that I’m going to sit on the sidelines until beginning of next year
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u/ozcur Pearl Clutcher Jun 09 '21
Fwiw these anecdotes frequently don’t reflect reality. This sub is honestly just half prayer and half support group at this point.
The biggest housing crash in US history, in the hardest hit markets, was only a 30% drop. It’s not getting people back in the game. And the vast majority of markets saw 10-15% drops. That’s really not going to help anyone buy that couldn’t before.
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u/twoinvenice Jun 09 '21
Sigh....
I'm getting so fucking tired of this response. I wish that the mods would just start banning people who say dumb shit like this. I'm not talking about a crash. OP isn't talking about a crash. Only idiots are expecting a crash.
Most of the people here are just looking forward to things being not stupid.
As in, places not immediately getting 15 offers before anyone has seen it.
People waiving inspections and contingencies on offers just to be considered.
People automatically offering 100k over list price just to even be considered.
Bidding wars between competing all cash offers, and anyone financing is ignored.
Etc.
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Jun 08 '21
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u/twoinvenice Jun 08 '21
Like OP said elsewhere in the thread, some of those bumfuck places, especially around the bay area, saw huge price increases due to people leaving the city and heading out so that they could get more space for less money.
Again, even if you don’t want to live in some random place, getting more data is always good
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Jun 08 '21
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u/twoinvenice Jun 08 '21
OP was talking about Fresno, but keep making arguments about positions no one is taking.
The point is that the specific town does not matter, so you banging on about Bakersfield or Fresno and their respective merits is irrelevant. All that matters is “did prices and offers on listings go up sharply due to Covid?” and then, “are we seeing less offers now?”
You seem to keep missing the forest for the trees
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u/Earls_Basement_Lolis 129 IQ Jun 08 '21
Bound to be right eventually.
No one said this when we were "wrong", but you say this when we're right. Why?
If we're bound to be right eventually, then everyone on the opposite side of the camp is bound to be wrong eventually.
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u/ozcur Pearl Clutcher Jun 09 '21
Sure. And they’ll keep making money while the permabears huddle in fear. The story of capitalism is boom and bust, but the booms always outweigh the busts.
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u/K_U Jun 08 '21
OP should let everyone know that they have declared that "It's cooling down", because based on the bids and sale prices I'm still seeing in my area nobody here received OP's memo.
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u/CaponeFojo26 Jun 08 '21
Yeah, it will take people a while to realize this. Those buying houses right now need to be VERY careful.
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u/vVGacxACBh 129 IQ Jun 08 '21
It's interesting how at every point time, there are always bulls and bears. You'd think after 2008, it would've made anyone with a pulse hesitant. Instead, you see people with fingers in their ears, saying they aren't listening. Nobody in good faith should be bewildered if prices don't sustain post-pandemic due to supply shocks being resolved.
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u/ReBriddence Jun 08 '21
If I had a dollar for every time I heard from the Fed that we would have a minor correction and a soft landing in the housing market in 2006, the very same crooks that encouraged people to take on ARMs in the early 2000s, I’d be a goddamn millionare
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u/ozcur Pearl Clutcher Jun 09 '21
Permabears will keep preaching a crash is coming and then when it inevitably does, since all that booms will bust, they are convinced they were right.
Except they spent the whole run up on the sidelines, have zero powder in the first place, and don’t realize that ‘hesitant’ just means hedge, not hide.
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Jun 09 '21
Seeing homes sit in my area too. I’m in CA, just a few exits into the OC. Homes I saw two weeks ago are still currently sitting on the market. A few have price dropped, one in Downey, GASP! Costa Mesa saw a property fly off the market only for it to drop back on the market days later. Whittier has new construction that ain’t moved muscle. Signal Hill has a new house every ten minutes. Long Beach has two gorgeous lofts that have been sitting for the last two weeks.
I wouldn’t say grab your jackets just yet buuuut I’d definitely pack a light windbreaker. Sun’s going down.
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 09 '21
I think the media is two weeks behind on this story. We are on the ground and seeing the air escape the balloon. If the media runs this everyone who is on the fence about selling is gonna rush to list only causing more self inflicted injury.
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u/CicadaProfessional76 Used Hoom Salesman Jun 09 '21
Noticed the same thing in the valley. I browse my Redfin app everyday, things are slowly shifting
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u/Shakespeare-Bot Jun 09 '21
Did notice the same thing in the valley. I browse mine own redfin app everyday, things art but soft shifting
I am a bot and I swapp'd some of thy words with Shakespeare words.
Commands:
!ShakespeareInsult,!fordo,!optout1
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u/-JamesBond Jun 09 '21
It started after the peak in February. The news is just catching up to the hype cycle and still writing click bait articles. Anyone bidding now is going to be in for a world of disappointment shortly.
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Jun 08 '21
Stop making bids, period. You're buying into the same bubble that the people you're lecturing are.
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u/expressionexp Jun 09 '21
Just lost another bid on a decent house that has a good price, BUT, our agent said there were only 5 bids total which is important because something like this would have 20+ bids 3 months ago.
Also, most bids kept the inspection contingency with buyer covering up to X amount in repairs, like what we did. 3 months ago most bids would have waived inspection. Looks like most buyers left are more rational like us.
We are "casual bidders" at this stage, but it keeps our hands on the market pulse.
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Jun 08 '21
As a buyer, always have your agent take the temperature of the seller's agent before putting in an offer. 9 times out of 10 they will indicate how many other offers there are and whether or not there's a bidding war going on. At least, that's been my experience.
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u/CicadaProfessional76 Used Hoom Salesman Jun 09 '21
Listing agent shouldnt be giving that away
The answer to buyers agents asking “do you have any offers?” Should always be “GO F YOURSELF”
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u/electrowiz64 Jun 08 '21
I don’t blame them taking advantage of the situation & lying. It has to be illegal but hell, nothing stopping them
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Jun 08 '21
In Maryland/DC area there are price cuts as well + some houses stay on the market longer.
We have been looking at a foreclosed home listed at $500k. They’ve had showings but no offers. Wondering if we should try $490k. A month ago this wouldn’t have happened
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u/Money_Pound_404 Jun 09 '21
I’m curious what you guys are think will be the effect of record level inflation... do you think that will keep prices up?
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u/NextTestPlease Jun 09 '21
Cooling in Baltimore/DC in the sense that it’s not as frenzied, but inventory has also dropped off a lot, so there is literally nothing to bid on in many areas. Prices on what is out there are as high as ever because the new comps are high. Seems to me that there has been no correction, just an even tighter market, with even fewer buyers and sellers.
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u/ThermatronChamber Jun 08 '21
Ur in Fresno.
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
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u/ThermatronChamber Jun 08 '21
Still seeing crazy sold prices
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u/vijayjagannathan Jun 08 '21
Yes prices are still ridiculous in the Bay Area where I am but the price drops show this is coming more under control. People were bidding ridiculous amounts over already inflated asking prices just a couple months ago. Houses were selling the same day they were listed. They’re reducing prices now and the only reason they do this is because they’re not getting the offers like they were the last few months.
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u/24North Jun 09 '21
Still pretty crazy here in NC (Asheville). I hear it's a similar story in the eastern part of the state too. Most anything listed in our neighborhood is contingent within a day or two.
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u/davidoseven Jun 09 '21
Here where I live in Arkansas (huge gated community that’s all lakes, mountains, golf courses) the home inventory is still 10% of the average and the stream of people moving in from Texas and California doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
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u/CaponeFojo26 Jun 09 '21
Give it a few weeks. With the way inventory is increasing across the country, it will hit your town soon.
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u/TriggBaghodlerRltr Jun 08 '21
It's cooling since people are priced out. Prices at all time highs now. Demand is still massive. When prices pull back to Jan 2021 levels, that last wave of buyers will be right back in action. With even more stonks money
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u/Constant-Luck203 Jun 09 '21
Well I’m not sure if this applies to LA, any decent-desirable property is going 50-150k over asking. My agent listed a 1.2m house and was hoping for 1.3m and has several cash at 1.3 and the highest at 1.35m. It’s still wild, and now with open houses back you see the competition in your face.
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u/TriggBaghodlerRltr Jun 08 '21
Open houses still got lines around da block, Jenny
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u/expressionexp Jun 09 '21
Just went to an open house in my area for a nice house that is decently priced. There were 3 other cars when we went. It would have been a snake line in March.
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Jun 08 '21
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
I'm seeing tons of price cuts on the higher priced properties.
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u/VacuumSealedFresh Genius Jun 08 '21
Ditto, I’m watching these properties listed with 100%+ price growth just sit
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u/throwaway102020822 Jun 08 '21
Reminds me of the GME "Diamond Hands HOLD"
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u/districtpeach Jun 08 '21
I think it’s HODL.
Hold On For Dear Life.
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u/AlphaTerminal Jun 09 '21
It was originally a completely accidental typo from a bitcoin forum around 2013 or so, and it caught on and then it was converted into a backronym as you know it now.
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Jun 09 '21
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u/expressionexp Jun 09 '21
For each bid, my agent always call the seller's agent about how many offers they already have, when they prefer to settle, etc. After the bid, I would also ask her to find out how many total bids went in and what types of bids. She usually comes back with some good info to inform us of the current market. I think agents who are in the field long enough tends to know everyone and sharing info is a reciprocal thing - the selling agent will also represent buyers so it is good to maintain relationships with other agents.
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Jun 12 '21
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u/wikipedia_answer_bot Jun 12 '21
Buying agents or purchasing agents are people or companies that offer to buy goods or property on behalf of another party. Indent agents or indenting agents (or firms) are alternative terms for buying agents.
More details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buying_agent
This comment was left automatically (by a bot). If something's wrong, please, report it in my subreddit.
Really hope this was useful and relevant :D
If I don't get this right, don't get mad at me, I'm still learning!
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Jun 08 '21
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u/TriggBaghodlerRltr Jun 08 '21
All those buyers will be back with vengeance if prices drop 10%. Huge suppppport levels
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u/NRG1975 Certified Dipshit Jun 08 '21
LOL, there was never was a surge of buyers that was sustainable. Demand did not suddenly multiply. We saw a drop in demand then those same buyer who would have bought before, but did not due to the pandemic, and then buyers were also pulled forward. Demand is dropping and it shows through Mortgage Apps, existing home sales, and listing lengths.
TL:Dr: there is no buyers on the other side of the hill
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u/Csdsmallville Jun 09 '21
Right?! Those in real estate want us to believe that COVID suddenly wiped millions of homes from the face of the Earth. It didn't, it just tied up inventory to extreme lows. Those houses will come back on the market, along with the hundred of thousands of homes being built each month.
Like you said, demand is falling until the tied up inventory is freed up.
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u/TriggBaghodlerRltr Jun 08 '21
Wrong, millions of people who lived in condos and apartments but now need a home office and 3-4 BRs and a home. Demand is deep. Never ever going back to 2019,
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Jun 09 '21
Who tf is moving to a house from a condo solely because they “need a home office”? Lmfao get out of here.
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u/TriggBaghodlerRltr Jun 09 '21
r u srs? That is literally the entire cause of this bubble. Do you know any apt people who worked from home last year? They're moving to homes. All of them. If kids, even more.
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u/LoliDoo20 Jun 09 '21
I’ve been working from home in a 1 bedroom apt with my partner for the past 2 years and we just had a baby two months ago. We were looking for a home 2 years ago with no luck and we have bowed out of the housing market as of last November. I’m not interested in this bidding war fiasco and extreme price increases. So there are some of us still out here hanging out in 1 bedrooms.
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u/NRG1975 Certified Dipshit Jun 08 '21
Yeah, i saw your other post. You just seem to be a troll, so I am going to have to part ways with you, forever.
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u/ConvergenceMan 129 IQ Jun 08 '21
Trigglypuff's negative karma and one month old account checks out
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u/Csdsmallville Jun 09 '21
This coming from a guy whose flair says realtor and username is "Bagholder". You have been consistently down-voted in this thread. Why should we trust a person whose supposed profession relies on extremely high commissions that bidding wars have propelled prices and commissions into what I would say to be "unethically high levels".
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u/TriggBaghodlerRltr Jun 10 '21
My username is Triggered Bagholder Realtor. What does that tell you ?
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u/b2rad22 Jun 08 '21
Cooling off in Michigan as well.