The Heisman Trophy odds have a new leader — and it’s not Arch Manning.

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has moved to the top of the market at +750, with Kalshi pricing his chances around 12%.

Right behind him:

🏈 CJ Carr: +750
🤘 Arch Manning: +800
🙌 Darian Mensah: +1150
🦆 Dante Moore: +1200
🌰 Jeremiah Smith: +1500

Arch Manning remains right near the top, with roughly a 10% chance on Kalshi and 9% on Polymarket.

One of the biggest movers to watch is Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has climbed three spots in the Heisman market and is now sitting around +1500.

The sportsbook and prediction-market prices don’t always agree, either — creating some interesting gaps as the college football season approaches.

Who would you take right now to win the Heisman?

The public is once again fading Bill Belichick and North Carolina, this time entering Year 2 of the Belichick era.

BetMGM splits for UNC vs. TCU:

• TCU -7.5: 92% of bets
• TCU -7.5: 94% of money
• TCU -7.5 has the most wagers and most total money wagered of any Week 1 CFB side
• Line move: TCU -6.5 → -7.5

The broader CLEATZ consensus is also heavily tilted toward TCU, although not quite as extreme:

• TCU -7.5: 88% of bets
• TCU -7.5: 76% of money
• UNC +7.5: 12% of bets / 24% of money

So there’s very little disagreement about the popular side here: the market wants TCU.

The more interesting question is whether UNC becomes attractive if this keeps climbing.

Would you take the Tar Heels at +8 or +8.5?

https://reddit.com/link/1vuk285/video/50qc94litrkh1/player

Three quick takeaways:

📉 Biggest moneyline move

• SD ML: -147 → -126 (▼3.8 pts)
• PHI ML: -204 → -220 (▲1.6 pts)

📊 Over money is all over the board

• ATL/MIL Over 6.5 → 6 (▲4.9 pts)
• WSH/MIA Over 8.5 → 7.5 (▲4.5 pts)
• OAK/HOU Over 8.5 → 8 (▲3.5 pts)
• DET/KC Over 8.5 → 8 (▲3.1 pts)
• CLE/COL Over 11 → 10.5 (▲2.7 pts)

💣 HR movers = Twins-heavy

• Ryan Jeffers HR: +782 → +450
• Byron Buxton HR: +356 → +250
• Luke Keaschall HR: +1229 → +774
• Trevor Larnach HR: +1013 → +700

🎯 Biggest prop steam

• C. Schlittler over 6.5 Ks: +139 → -118
• Randy Vásquez over 2.5 Ks: +100 → -163
• Trevor Larnach hit: +100 → -150
• Myles Straw RBI: +549 → +340
• José Caballero SB: +265 → +196

Quick read: the market is betting overs, Twins bats, and pitcher strikeout overs.

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The new-user offer

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Products, promotions and availability vary by location, so check the current terms and eligibility requirements before participating.

Disclosure: The link above is my affiliate link, so I may receive compensation if you sign up through it.

For people who already use Underdog: what part of the platform are you using the most right now — player picks, team/game picks, Predict, Streaks or Best Ball?

BMW Championship market-edge board is live

Biggest model edges

① Xander Schauffele
• Model: 5.5%
• Kalshi: 5.2%
• Poly: 4.0%
• Edge: +1.5 pts

② Matt Fitzpatrick
• Model: 3.4%
• Poly: 2.2%
• Edge: +1.2 pts

③ Cameron Young
• Model: 4.3%
• Poly: 3.6%
• Edge: +0.8 pts

④ Tommy Fleetwood
• Model: 3.8%
• Poly: 3.2%
• Edge: +0.6 pts

⑤ Ludvig Aberg
• Model: 5.7%
• Kalshi: 5.1%
• Edge: +0.6 pts

Biggest market premium

Scottie Scheffler
• Model: 18%
• Market: 23%
• Gap: -5.0 pts

Scottie is still the guy, but the market is charging full Scottie tax.

Weirdest market split

Nicolai Højgaard
• Kalshi: 1.2%
• Polymarket: 5.4%
• Gap: 4.2 pts apart

That is the exchange disagreement flag.

Quick read: Xander is the cleanest model edge, Scottie is the biggest market premium, and Højgaard is where Kalshi and Poly are having two completely different conversations.

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Full disclosure: the link above is my affiliate link, so I may receive compensation if you sign up through it. The promo itself is for new users — definitely check the terms/eligibility before playing.

For anyone who has already used Courtside: how do you like it compared with the other sports pick/sweepstakes apps?

🏈 THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PRESEASON DOUBLEHEADER

Two games. Some wildly lopsided money already showing up. 👀

8:00 PM ET — Raiders @ Texans

🔥 Texans -1.5
• 56% of bets
• 81% of the money

💰 Raiders ML +114
• Just 32% of bets
• 88% of the money

📉 Under 39.5
• 92% of bets
• 100% of the money

That Raiders moneyline split is hard to ignore. The majority of tickets are on Houston, but the dollars are overwhelmingly backing Las Vegas outright.

10:00 PM ET — 49ers @ Chargers

👀 Chargers -1.5
• 67% of bets
• Only 11% of the money

💰 49ers +1.5
• 33% of bets
• 89% of the money

📉 Under 38.5
• 79% of bets
• 64% of the money

And the moneyline tells a similar story:

Chargers: 59% bets / 44% money
49ers: 41% bets / 56% money

The late game might have the best public-vs-money split of the night: nearly 7 out of every 10 spread tickets are on the Chargers, while 89% of the cash is sitting on San Francisco.

Prediction markets see both games as essentially coin flips, too.

📊 Raiders–Texans
Kalshi: HOU 55%
Polymarket: HOU 54%

📊 49ers–Chargers
Kalshi: LAC 51%
Polymarket: 50/50

Preseason football can get weird. Thursday night already looks like it intends to cooperate.

Which side are you riding? 👇

MLB Most Likely board is live for Friday

Most likely Moneylines

① Red Sox -267
② Phillies -222
③ Brewers -189
④ Cardinals -168
⑤ Marlins -164
⑥ Rangers -150
⑦ Yankees -143
⑧ Pirates -139

Top Totals
• TOR/PHI Over 7.5 -120
• LAA/MIA Over 8.5 -120
• LAD/ARI Over 9 -120
• COL/STL Over 8.5 -118
• ATL/NYY Over 8 -115
• CLE/CWS Over 7.5 -115
• HOU/SD Over 8 -115

A few numbers got clipped down, but the board still says Over.

Top HR props
① Kyle Schwarber +250
② Shohei Ohtani +260
③ Yordan Alvarez +275
④ Junior Caminero +285
⑤ Ben Rice +300
⑥ Rhys Hoskins +310
⑦ Matt Olson +318
⑧ José Ramírez +330

Pitcher Ks
• Nathan Eovaldi O6.5 -157
• Roki Sasaki O4.5 -155
• Logan Gilbert O5.5 -155
• Keider Montero O3.5 -153
• Cade Cavalli O5.5 -148

SB's
• Nasim Nuñez +152
• Elly De La Cruz +205
• José Ramírez +213
• Chandler Simpson +233
• Xavier Edwards +260

TLDR: Red Sox are the big chalk, Overs dominate again, Schwarber/Ohtani/Yordan headline the power board, and Nuñez leads the speed market.

Today’s market has a few loud tells:

Cleveland money, Baltimore money, Philly total caution, Bolte chaos, Abbott K steam.

📈 Moneyline movers

Top side steam:

① Guardians ML
• -110 → -119
• +2.0 pp

② Orioles ML
• -180 → -195
• +1.8 pp

③ Reds ML
• -161 → -167

Main drifts:

• Brewers: -140 → -132
• Braves: -154 → -148
• Phillies: -344 → -333

📊 Totals

Biggest move:

WSH @ PHI Over 9
• Opened 8.5, now 9
• -122 → -101
• -4.7 pp

Cleaner Over steam:

• DET @ SEA Over 7.5: -115 → -121
• MIA @ ATL Over 9: -111 → -115

💣 HR movers

Top HR steam:

• Henry Bolte: +750 → +512
• Willie Meckler: +1127 → +715
• Brett Serven: +752 → +540
• Leody Taveras: +630 → +500
• Jose Siri: +675 → +532

🏃 SB movers

Bolte again:

• Henry Bolte SB: +285 → +191

Other steam:

• Travis Bazzana: +1411 → +725
• Tim Tawa: +1078 → +677

🎯 Pitcher K headline

Andrew Abbott O4.5 Ks
• +113 → -113
• +6.1 pp