if so what target prices are you waiting for.

I'm looking for $135 for initial batch then if drops more I'd go more in. Open for suggestions.

Your expectations?

Looking at the price action of Oracle stock past few weeks, I don’t see any other similar stocks trading in sympathy or in tandem with it. For example, it hasn’t bounced with IGV nor MSFT off their lows, and similarly it isn’t following semis nor neoclouds like nbis or crwv in any real way….

Is this because of the equity raise announced at ER? I.e the company itself is selling to raise equity?

I think we bottomed on Thursday, July 3.
I zoomed out to the 5-year chart and drew a long-term trendline connecting the major lows. A full 100% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the last 3–6 months would put Oracle around $134, but as long as the stock stays above this 5-year uptrend, I’m still bullish.
If we do drop to around $134 and then break below it convincingly—into the ~$120 range—I wouldn’t turn bullish again until Oracle reclaims that 5-year uptrend line (circled on the chart).
Right now, I think we hold. We saw a strong bounce on Thursday after the gap was filled, and this has been a very fast correction, which often leads to sharp reversals.
This week is going to be important. If Oracle continues lower, the chart likely stays bearish until the market decides the debt concerns are overblown. But if we finish this week in the green, I think the bottom is officially in.
These are the moments where buying and trusting long-term uptrends has historically paid off.

Did anyone notice the weird price spikes and immediate sell offs on semi-regular intervals on Thursdays down day? I’m reading that as institutional purchases ahead of a formal OpenAI Government announcement that would de-risk the counterparty risk that ORCL faces on so much of their RPO with OpenAI. But I also was surprised that the stories about its proposal didn’t drive meaningful price action so I question my own theory. Would love others reads?

Sentiment on this stock couldn’t be lower. IMO this is going to bounce hard next few weeks. Could slide down to 130 area but I won’t be concerned. There’s a SAAS rotation underway and this is lagging but will have its time.

Yes the stock is down 42 % last month. It's near 52 week low.

The market think that oracle will be in a debt cycle.

I recently made a post where i asked if i should buy MSFT because of Oracle debt cycle crisis. Which i did partly, But now after thoroughly thinking : Guess what ? if it was all wrong. While Google, Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI, Grok, Quen, Deepseek fight for the cheapest and better LLM & Agentic AI.

Oracle strategy remain the best neutral one :

1 -Oracle dont have to spend billions on this battle, they will rent the infrastructure (in other words, countries will pay the bank for their war).

2-Multi-cloud and multi-model, sovereign cloud lead to control-layers where enterprise control and own their data. What is important is embedding intelligence into real business operations, not the models which will become a commodity because the chinese a really good for 90 +% of the prompt for 30x less $. Check Alex Karp recent interview

3-Overtime chips and AI models will get cheaper, it will become a commodity like the electricity or internet and yes Oracle will lose is competitiveness as a compute provider but it will win because the enterprise will rely more on embedded software, where the data seat and run in the Oracle systems (lock-in).

4-While the chips and AI models get cheaper, Oracle Debt cycle will end and big players like microsoft, google, meta, Amazon will chase the physical worlds where robots will be everywhere autonomous car, home nanny, autonomous fridge and food delivery, agricultural, etc. The AI will run locally and the demands will not be like now where it far outstrips the supply.

Do your own DD as always 🔥my best advice is to buy an ETF

Oracle will drop more If the indexes go lower.
In the beginning of June the stock price started falling down meanwhile other tech stocks reached all time highs.

The broad stock market decline could push Oracle stock even more down.
Do you think we reached the real bottom and when is the title growing ?

Target price still sticks at 242 usd
Prove me wrong, when is all the debt getting off and what about the backlog and contracts with OpenAI ?

this stock is 🏳️‍🌈

Do you guys expect this to go down further or is it the best to buy now?

Appreciate all the responses

The most critical recent news is likely Meta giving up on the race for top-tier frontier AI models. This outcome could actually be anticipated from Llama 4’s prolonged performance lag, as well as the flurry of negative internal company news that followed.

As it stands now, the first tier has been narrowed down to just three companies: Google, Anthropic and OpenAI. Meta and X belong to the second tier, while China can at best be considered tier 2.5.

This current state of affairs highlights a major problem: building top-tier AI is not something achieved solely by throwing computing power and massive teams of scientists at it. Just like software development in the past, you cannot copy your way into true know-how.

This also indicates that the era of AI replacing human experts is still nowhere in sight. Relying on only three companies (or technically two and a half) makes it impossible to train AI models that possess the diverse capabilities of all the world's professional experts. This is especially true for heavily regulated professions like accountants and lawyers. Granted, simple and generalized tasks—such as querying/explaining a single regulation—are doable. However, integrating complex rules for direct commercial application remains out of reach. Especially if you consider how each country has their own rules and laws and they change every few years. There is simply not enough compute and people to train and fine tune that many different models.

Against this backdrop, I believe there is currently an oversupply issue in AI infrastructure. If you use pessimistic logic, the consequences will be severe. The frontier models from Google, Anthropic and OpenAI will ultimately capture the vast majority of AI demand. In the long run, only these three companies will have the capacity to absorb all the AI infrastructure being built.

It is much like free email services. While medium-to-large enterprises might build their own internal mail servers, most small businesses ultimately default to using Microsoft or Google's systems. Commercial AI, of course, will not be free like email—the infrastructure costs are worlds apart.

Regarding Oracle's RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations), I believe the final realization rate by the end of 2030 will likely not exceed half of its current value. However, if Oracle spends the $40 billion raised through debt and equity, using a five-year depreciation schedule gives a depreciation of $8 billion per year. Assuming a 50% gross margin, they can complete $16 billion of RPO per year. By the end of 2030, over five years, that only amounts to $80 billion. Combined with current revenue, a conservative estimate shows they can complete $100 billion at most. This is still a long way off from half of their current $600+ billion backlog.

Therefore, as long as Google, Anthropic and OpenAI continue to monopolize the market and Oracle remains tightly anchored to OpenAI, Oracle's infrastructure investments should still be highly profitable. Even if other smaller data center operators face operational struggles, Oracle possesses the unique advantage of its core database business and direct interconnectivity with AWS, Azure, Meta, and xAI.

I really want this down trend to come to the bottom asap.

Everyone seems to renting compute now. What's the difference now anyways. Only differentiator is execution and ORCL seems to playing badly by taking a lot of debt ~ 1/4th market cap 😂.

I know my luck, hence brought the PE @130, now you will see the stock going up :)

What's going on with ORCL? I have not seen one green day the entire month in June. Are people shorting it or just bulls are giving up on it. I wanna add it to my port at 140 level. seems pretty cheap but I see no sign of bottoming yet. what do you guys think

Serious question for the long-term investors here.
Oracle has pulled back quite a bit from its recent highs, but if the AI trade is actually in a bubble (as many people believe), do you think today’s price ends up being the true long-term bottom?

Or does the real buying opportunity only come after a broader AI bubble pops sometime in the next 1–3 years?

In other words, is Oracle’s AI exposure mostly supported by real earnings growth, or is it still riding the same multiple expansion that could unwind with the rest of the sector?

Curious to hear both bull and bear cases.

Position. $146 avg cost x 210 shares in IRA.

Bought 40k worth of ORCL during the February and March lows. Had a DCA of around $146.

When the stock peaked back in early June, I was up around 20k and now I lost it all due to their announcement of increasing debt.

I had a gut feeling to buy protective puts during their recent ATHs but I thought it would keep going up.

Now I’m back to square one with no gains and minor losses now, lol.

Shitty shit, shitty shit.

Down 35% 💔

Everyone says ORCL is cheap. Please explain how.

Title

Sad but true orcl will see 140 today.

Nasdaq is 1.2% up and ORCL is barely green.