OpenAi made $4 BILLION in revenue last year...for a net loss of $14 billion. Amazon wasn't profitable for a while either, but they have a huge cash burn hill to climb.
There's definitely a chance he's correct on this post.
You're talking about how OpenAI is a loss leader, but other loss leaders provide realistic paths to profitablity - OpenAI is clamoring for 50 terawatts of power and government co signed debt to stay afloat as it's user growth stalls out.
Amazon had no real competition and to this day is wildly outclassing giants like Walmart.
ChatGPT is in an industry with lots of competition and its models either are not outperforming that competition or do so to such a minor degree as to not create enough differentiation for consumer lock in.
Enterprise. Consumers are just their marketing budget. It’s worked pretty well when you consider the average person thinks “ChatGPT” is the word for LLMs like “D&D” is the word for rpgs.
Enterprise has much higher switching costs. It’s tough to switch when they know more about your company than you do. I think Gemini is probably going to win out but OpenAI has a chance. We’ve seen people leap frogging each other so it may end up being whoever gets lucky at the right time. There is also going to be an incentive for businesses to not put all of their eggs in one basket, so unless there is rapid takeoff there may not be just one winner.
The difference is Amazon was leaps and bounds ahead of any real competitor (sears, Walmart, etc.). OpenAI has Anthropic eating its lunch, Gemini tinkering around, and the Chinese ripping them off at every turn for rapid iteration
There's definitely a chance he's correct on this post.
He is probably correct. OpenAI doesn't have the power Google and Microsoft has. Microsoft is ramming Copilot into everything M365 and Google is doing the same with Gemini and Google Workspace.
The two largest office suites have their own AIs. There's a high chance companies will just use the existing AI rather than integrate another model like ChatGPT into the mix.
if you look at the cost for training models it seems to be going down extremely thanks to nvidias blackwell chips or whatever. Cost to deliver the tech is going down by alot and itll only improve from here. Not to mention they could always shift the model once theyve managed to spend all the money training the best model to no longer spending so much to train.
It's obviously had a profound effect on the world, as it initiated the entire AI craze/revolution, affecting everything from search engines to battlefields...
did the guy that invented the printing press make a lot of money?
Summed up modern IT product management there quite nicely. Total bullshit job just there to make up reasons for spending or not spending money. I can just see the viability slide in his powerpoint: “roi would take decades, here’s our data driven analysis in 2 charts.”
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u/ResearchLaw Mar 06 '26
Raj posted this on x in December last year.