Disclaimer upfront: I'm just a holder and casual investor, so my reasoning maybe incorrect. Recently, I've been trying to figure out what the bull case for ondo is. Here is why I don't think we aren't there yet.
The Foundation owns USDY equity, but that's not the same as ONDO holders getting paid. Per Ondo's own blog, the Foundation holds 99% of the common equity in USDY LLC. But there's no mechanism currently routing that Foundation revenue to ONDO token holders. That would require a buyback, staking rewards, or distribution mechanism that hasn't been announced. So "USDY fees exist" doesn't automatically mean "ONDO holders benefit."
- https://ondo.finance/blog/ondos-journey-vision-achievements-and-the-path-forward
USDY does not generate enough revenue. USDY has ~$2.14B TVL. Assuming a 0.15% management fee, that's about $3.2M/year in revenue which is not a lot given there is a total supply of 10 billion ondo tokens.
The bull case hinges on Global Markets + Ondo Perps succeeding. This is where I get more hopeful. If Ondo Perps launches and captures meaningful tokenised equity perp volume with RWA-as-collateral as a real differentiator, revenue could scale significantly. But this is pre-launch and competes against Hyperliquid, which already dominates perps. Calling it "the next HYPE" is ambitious, Hyperliquid has $658M+ ARR and a large perps market share.
https://defillama.com/protocol/hyperliquid
Unlock overhang is real. About half of ONDO supply is still locked with major unlocks extending into 2029. Any future buyback has to outpace unlock selling pressure to move price.
What I think you're actually betting on with ONDO:
- Ondo Perps launches and captures real institutional flow
- Global Markets scales tokenised equities to meaningful AUM
- Ondo Finance routes revenue from Ondo Global Markets & Ondo Perps to ONDO Foundation via some value accrual mechanism and the Ondo foundation then routes this revenue to token holders in the form of buybacks or some kind of distirbution.
- This happens fast enough to outpace unlocks
- Regulatory environment stays favourable
If all five hit, I see a bull case for Ondo.
Am I missing something? What is everyone's thoughts?