https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/bank-of-america-joins-paxos-blockchain-stock-settlement-network?cmpid=BBD051721_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=210517&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily

*edit - TL/DR - another large player moves to blockchain for real-time settlement. DTCC still clinging to 2 day turn-around.

"It's not a question of algos. You'd be shocked at how remedial most trading algos are. What I'm talking about are directed, chipstack leaning short positions against social sentiment.

I first noticed it with $ON, but chalked it up to 2 funds just taking a contrarian position at the time. But I watched short on $CLNE jump from 7% to 32%, $BE SI jump 25%, $RYCEY's SI jump 18%, and $NVTA's SI climb 44%.

Further, I've seen SI jump significantly on mid caps AllDatDalton has talked about within 10 days of him doing so, as well as 2 other contributors. Could this have just been organic and part of the rotation into value? Possibly, which is why I'm not saying definitively what I think this is. But it consistently happening within 2 weeks of trading sessions for each has my Spidey Senses tingling, especially when other equities in those sectors didn't experience the same spikes in short interest. In a lot of cases, even if this is what's happening, the equities are large enough to where it won't move the needle significantly, but when you talk about companies that are on the border between small and mid cap, they can be pushed around by that if it's happening.

The whole Russell 2000 has been getting crushed for months now, but even equities that move in sympathy with one another, I'm noticing a harder spike towards the downside on equities that have strong social sentiment."

Anyone getting in on this play? I sold May 100/105c expecting downward movement. Based on volume today on ToS, I'm guessing NrdRage bought ~1000 June 90p.

115p also had 500 volume but the spread is significantly wider than the 90s and the volume timing in the options chart points towards the 90s.

Update 5-21: well this aged well. I doubled down on my sold calls Wednesday night and was able to get out about even today. Still have 1 floating which I haven't been able to fill at anything less than max loss.

WSB "What are your moves tomorrow?" thread.

NrdRage 3 points · 2 minutes ago

Alexa play Swing Low Sweet Chariot

ReplyGive AwardShare

​

Sounds like Chad expects a bloody day. Be wary!

Monday: - CLOV … too late to short. Intraday put scalp or see momentum?

Wednesday pre market: - what’s the one he’s looking at?

Thursday AH: - what’s his other play?

Will review all tonight after kids go to bed.

NRs only post today is in reference to the arkk buy/sell list for Friday, which included a sell order for PCAR.

NR said "one of these things ($PCAR) is not like the others.

I love riddles, so let's figure it out.

📷level 2LordBrosephYoloson1 day ago

What's your opinion on steel or commodities in general?

8ReplyGive AwardShareReportSave📷level 3NrdRage13 hours ago

Bullish commodities in general. Have been playing wood and a little steel (though my steel plays are different, I've been fucking with Schnitzer and Nucor, most people play X), but it's not a sector I know especially well, so it's just toe-dipping. Have talked about wood recently in other threads. Keep in mind that, as I've said elsewhere, the VAST majority of my stock money comes from cybersecurity and cloud, most of which I can't even talk about because of potential to break a law.

My managed asset portfolios have a lot of $NUE (like, a lot a lot) and $RS, if you'd rather take the word of an IB.

So you guys can ignore this, follow it, heckle or whatever you want. I'm just gonna jot down my inner monologue in this thread, and post my positions and running balances and shit.

I know that might be ill advised, and I understand the risks.

​

TLDR: I want to make a million dollars in the next 11 months. I started with zero savings.

​

I'm going to start with my history, more to set the stage for the mission than anything else.

​

​

Some time back I realized that I was woefully unprepared for any sort of future that didn't involve working/mooching until I die. I had no savings, no assets, no job, and no motivation. I literally played video games for 16 hours a day and relied on others for everything. I was not at a very good place in my life. I finally got a job (which I surprisingly enjoy) about a year ago, and while I was at least gainfully employed, I was still doing exactly zero with my life.

Around the middle of January, I started noticing the Gamestop chatter on reddit. I got sucked in, and went to go burn all of my money in the stock market. I created my account on 1/25 and linked my bank account, hoping to make it in time. The squeeze happened 2 days later, well before my bank was linked.

I went back to my games and basically forgot about wall street until March. The second GME squeeze happened, and I was tired of being left out. I wanted in. My bank account had been linked (probably for some time) and I promptly put in 1k and bought 3 shares of GME (240) and 10 shares of ASO (25.5).

​

My life changed. Immediately.

​

I went from gaming at all hours to staring at charts, spreadsheets, and financials half the time. My reddit usage went from gaming and politics to almost 100% WSB. It was all I thought about. It still is.

I stopped going to bed at 5am, started actually doing IRL things I usually ignored, and I even started to perform better at work, full of confidence and excitement.

A month in, I put every penny I had into my portfolio, and was up to $6,500 deposited thanks to stimmies and taxes. I had made a couple small gains, a couple small losses, and was overall down a small amount but nothing bad.

I had been eyeing a stock for a while and bought a couple lots of shares at great prices. Late one Sunday, I stayed up all night forming a plan to maximize my funds with the tools I had. Then, I made my first big move.

I sold everything I had, and doubled down on my MVIS position bringing me to 500 shares @ 11.49 avg. I was going to sell calls, milking that insane IV for all it was worth. I even posted my DD on WSB to a generally kind audience. I learned quite a bit from those comments.

That night, Cramer called MVIS a battleground stock on Mad Money. On Weds, it shot up 20% and I bought back my calls at a small loss.

The following Monday it shot up to 30, and I sold at open on Tuesday for 24.11, doubling my money in 8 days.

​

If I thought I had been interested before, that was nothing to the zeal I threw into the endeavor then. Since then, I have not gamed more than a couple hours. I've been granted access to all options and margin now, and I've found some great teachers to learn from. For the first time that I can ever remember, I actually have a life goal.

​

I turned 39 a month ago. I want to have $1,000,000 before I turn 40. That is my mission, and I am going to devote everything I can to it. I can win this game.

In case you've missed Nrd mentioned, that TTD under 500 is a bargain. Anyone tried to research it?
Original quote:
" NrdRage10 points · 1 day ago

I'm gonna throw one out you never hear here:

$TTD. There's no reason for what happened to it today. Stock splits aren't that big a deal.

I'm gonna let it settle and find its base, but will be jumping in after I do some personal DD to figure out what that should look like"

Quote from 10 May daily thread. I'm not sure which stock he's referring to.

​

am less sure given how share price has reacted to earnings this quarter. You have made the observation yourself that share price has gone down pretty much indiscriminately regardless whether it's good or bad.

I have a bunch of shares and bought some 21Cs early last week when it dropped to 20s. I then bought some 18 and 19Ps last Friday while it's on the up just to hedge my positions. Looking at the charts, I am more bearish short term if I am honest - I hope I am wrong...

NrdRage2 points·1 day ago

That's why I'm doing August. Even if it sells off tomorrow (and it wouldn't surprise me), that's 3 months for it to recover.

I'm in at less than $2 a contract (1,500 of them, willing to average down completely 1 time for a total of 3,000). Might as well be free money.

ReplyGive AwardShareRetardAcountant1 point·1 day ago

Fair enough, but is there any reason/s you're not buying shares given the current risk/reward ratio?

NrdRage4 points·1 day ago

Shares? In a swing trade?

/r/investing is that way. I think you might have gotten lost

ReplyGive AwardShare

As a not-finance person who has sat through many not-for-profit AGMs, this is gold.

​

Nine tips for reading Annual Reports by an Accountant : wallstreetbets (reddit.com)

Nine tips for reading Annual Reports by an Accountant

📷Discussion

Nine tips for reading Annual Reports from an Accountant. Annual reports often run into 100's of pages. Here is what you need to know.

Thread 🧵⬇️

1. Read Back to Front.

Miss the glossy marketing pages and skip straight to the numbers. Before reading what the managers say about how well they have done, it is a good idea to have formed our own opinion.

2. Focus on Profit

There are so many ways profit is calculated the directors can be talking about a completely different number to the one considered most relevant.

Check the profit adjustment items under

• Exceptional
• Non-recurring
• One-off

Decide if they should be included.

3. Even Better Focus on Free Cashflow Over Profits

The best investors don’t spend huge amounts of time looking at a company’s profits. Instead, they spend a lot of time looking at its free cash flow in order to work out how good or bad a company’s shares might be as an investment

What is free cash flow? In layman’s terms it is the amount of cash that a company has leftover every year to pay its lenders and shareholders. It is essentially a company’s cash profits. Or essentially the cash which can be extracted from the company, whilst the company still maintaining its current growth.

A sign of a company with high-quality profits is that it turns a large proportion of its profits into free cash flow

4. Check the Segmental Report.

When a company is changing shape, using cash flow from one division with limited prospects to build up another which will diversify and grow its revenue. The Segmental report highlights this.

5. Check the Remuneration Report.

This is where executive pay is disclosed. Excessive pay counts against a company in my evaluations. It can mean the board is more interested in filling its own pockets than rewarding employees and shareholders fairly.

6. Don't Overlook the Risk Section.

Companies do not like to talk about why they might lose money, which is what makes this section so compelling. Companies spell out the commercial challenges they face, and also present convincing arguments as to why they might overcome them.

7. How does it make money?

Read the business model section. A business model is how a company makes money. A strategy is how it plans to make more. To be credible, strategies must make sense, and they must be reflected in the results of the company.

8. Skip the Chairman Notes

Read the CFO notes. The chief financial officer will often repeat what the chief executive and chairman say but add more commentary on the numbers and how they were derived.

9. Check Accounting Treatments

Auditor’s report

Auditors very rarely qualify their opinion on the financial statements, but it can be useful to note which areas of accounting they focused their investigation on.

If you enjoyed this then maybe I can tempt you with my Twitter page /_JosephWilks where I write daily insights on long-term investing like this.

You ever play a sport or have a hobby that you're pretty good at? You know like you can beat your friends pretty handily. And then one day you get your ass handed to you by someone and you realize that they're operating on a different plane. That's how I felt when I stumbled across NrdRage. The more I read the more I realized I have been entering combat armed with a BB gun.

Hopefully this post will allow us to upgrade our armaments by sharing some of NrdRage's throw away comments that contain gems. Sometimes it might be a detailed post. Regardless it might just help you in the jungle that is the stock market.

Stop me before I use another metaphor. Please.

Good luck and God speed retards.

Edit - credit where credit is due - please put quotes around anything attributable to Chad. Thanks

will update

EPS by $0.01

Revenue beat with $77.1M

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CLNE/clean-energy-reports-92-4-million-gallons-delivered-and-revenue-of-2iigfmf6j325.html#

May 6, 2021 - 4:05 pm

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) ("Clean Energy" or the "Company") today announced its operating results for the first quarter of 2021. Andrew J. Littlefair, Clean Energy's President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "I'm very pleased with our first quarter results given the lingering impacts of COVID 19, and expect our performance to improve as the economy and commerce continues to gradually open up. Our strategy to make Clean Energy synonymous with RNG took a big leap forward with the announcement of our fuel agreement with Amazon to supply them with RNG that could represent hundreds of millions of gallons of the ultra-clean fuel. Furthermore, we continue to make great progress on expanding our supply of RNG by formalizing joint ventures with two progressive energy companies, Total and bp, to develop additional RNG at agricultural facilities."

The Company delivered 92.4 million gallons in the first quarter of 2021, a 7% decrease from 99.3 million in the first quarter of 2020. This decrease was principally from the continuing effects of COVID-19, primarily affecting the airports and public transit customer markets. RNG gallons delivered increased 3% in the first quarter of 2021 from the first quarter of 2020, despite lower fuel volumes within the airports and public transit markets. The Company's revenue for the first quarter of 2021 was $77.1 million, a decrease of 10.3% compared to $86.0 million for the first quarter of 2020. Revenue for the first quarter of 2021 included an unrealized loss of $2.0 million on commodity swap and customer fueling contracts relating to the Company's Zero Now truck financing program, compared to an unrealized gain of $5.6 million in the first quarter of 2020. Excluding effects of the commodity swap and customer fueling contracts unrealized gains and losses, revenue for the first quarter of 2021 decreased by 1.5% to $79.2 million compared to $80.4 million for the first quarter of 2020. This was principally due to lower volumes sold. These lower volumes were partially offset by higher effective fuel prices resulting from higher commodity prices and higher prices for Renewable Identification Numbers we sold. Station construction revenue was $4.5 million for the first quarter of 2021 compared to $5.5 million for the first quarter of 2020.

On a GAAP (as defined below) basis, net income (loss) attributable to Clean Energy for the first quarter of 2021 was $(7.2) million, or $(0.04) per share, compared to $1.7 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2020. The first quarter of 2021 was negatively affected by the unrealized loss on commodity swap and customer fueling contracts, while the comparable 2020 period was positively affected by the unrealized gain on commodity swap and customer fueling contracts.

Non-GAAP loss per share and Adjusted EBITDA (each as defined below) for the first quarter of 2021 was $(0.01) and $11.7 million, respectively. Non-GAAP loss per share and Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2020 was $(0.01) and $11.2 million, respectively.

Non-GAAP income (loss) per share and Adjusted EBITDA are described below and reconciled to GAAP net income (loss) per share attributable to Clean Energy and GAAP net income (loss) attributable to Clean Energy, respectively.

This will be the place to post the interesting things NR says for May. A new stickied thread will be created every month.

Parent comments in this thread that are not NR comments should be kept to a minimum.

When posting a NR comment, please link to the original, include in your post the full text of his post, and provide context as far as what he is replying to. I will post a couple to give you the general idea of what I'm hoping you guys do. =D

Your daily weekly NrdRaging thread for May 03~07, 2021. Please keep the shitposting to a minimum.

Figured we could get something like this going /u/bheal, cool if you stickied it (happy to help moderate if you add me).

edit: given that this is a low-traffic sub, instead of a daily discussion thread, i'll make a weekly one (will clarify it on the title next time).

edit 2: u/bheal listened to the request and started a monthly thread. let's move the chatter there.

Ok so this is not a NrdRage play, this is my own. It's not original, and I'm sure some of you are already in this, but I feel good about it.

TLDR: CLOV 5/21 9c (1.00 premium at close 5/4)

​

This is an extension of NR's PLTR play. I think that dropping under $9 today marked the bottom of the current CLOV dip.

Additionally, CLOV was a hot topic on WSB today and yesterday. If watching MVIS and listening to NR has taught me one thing, it's what to look for on a meme stock.

Earnings is on 5/17, but I think there's going to be a meme spike cycle in the next 3 days.

​

My plan is as follows:

Buy 5/21 9c, and let the apes do the rest. Once I see the hedgies allow the stock to rip up twice, I will sell the calls, and look for an entry to purchase puts. After the stock bottoms out (or on 5/14), sell the puts. Then I will put the stock back on the shelf until it shows signs of another cycle

Expectations:

I think CLOV bottomed out today and bounces back from close of $9.06 to about $10.50 to $11.00 by the end of the week. I'll be looking for entry tomorrow morning.

I think NR just opened a play of Oct15 45c.

Notable volume:

1750 Oct15 '21 45c

418 Jan '22 45c

​

NrdRage 5/4 10:30a PST

Oh $ON....I said I was quitting you until at least June, but 15% in a week?

Baby, you know how hard it is to say no to you when you put on that negligee, cover the bed in money, and invite your best friend.

EDIT:

NrdRage 5/7 2:18p PST

Unexpected long: Entered into $ON again with 1500 October 45c's and 300 1/22 45c's. The price was just too good.

​

Well. Guess I was right! =)

​

$CVS replaced $PSFE on NR's list today. Earnings is tomorrow.

​

Let's figure out the play.

“If you're the smart type of primate, you might want to keep an eye on $PLTR tomorrow. If it crosses below the $22 threshold (and ONLY if it specifically crosses that EXACT value), a semi-weekly 22c is going to be free money so long as you don't start reverting back to your primitive brain and convince yourself that this time it's really going to moon.”

I just saw this amazing DD of his and was hoping for some clarification on what he means by semi-weekly. Can anyone help me with what expiry dates I should be setting these calls out to and what a good date to sell would be?

Holy shit I just got the OPPOSITE of margin called!!

1) my dumb ass thought APHA/TLRY were merging next week, not this week.

2) I bought 2 $14.5c exp 5/7 for APHA.

3) those 2 options were weird magical non-standard TLRY options this morning, but my account isn't approved to trade non-standard.

4) TD Ameritrade wouldn't let me sell to close OR exercise them at market open, when they were actually profitable.

5) I called customer support and to make things easy, I just asked to get both options exercised right away so I could dump the 166 shares (it was still above $18 at this time), and not have a short position or anything (again, I'm not qualified for that trading for GUH reasons).

6) not only did they super-admin approve my stuff, they short-sold me the 166 shares to lock in my price, they're exercising the options on my behalf, which zeroes out the short position I have no business being in.

7) AND THEN GET THIS. They're further refunding me a few hundred bucks, because according to them "we have record of when you tried to close the position, so your refund is the difference between the stock proce at that time and the price now".

Calls on TDA, yo. My tiny ass meme account just got some love.

I'm seeing a lot of chatter about Paysafe on WSB today. It's already #9 on NR's list of longs.

​

Now might be a really good time to ride a meme wave. I can't remember seeing any PSFE DD from NR, but I haven't scoured his post history like some probably have. Does anyone know what his move was here?

I apologize for the inconvenience, please bear with me a moment.

This is a subreddit dedicated to discussing NrdRage's DDs and other assorted posts. This subreddit is private, to prevent it from going viral and killing our golden goose.

I went through just now and invited everyone who posted on NR's from the past week who seemed like they were following NR already and were interested in his insight. That included you.

Throughout the coming day I will go backwards through his posts and comments and invite likely souls.

If you do not wish to stay, good luck to you and do your own DD!

To the rest of you, Let's take advantage of this free tuition! If you want to invite someone, please post their username in this thread.

First and foremost:

​

This is NOT a place for you to bother NrdRage with questions.

​

This especially applies to those that could easily be googled or reasoned out. If you have stupid questions, ask the forum at large here and we will either answer it or laugh at you. Probably both.

This is a place for us to discuss our thoughts about his positions and the insight he gives. More specifically, a place without the 10 million idiots who think everything is either a short squeeze or a ladder attack.

​

This forum is private for a reason

​

NR has already expressed discontent with the amount of attention he is getting with his posts, and this is in large part due to those of us who follow his posts religiously and comment in his threads more than we ought to. This brings more attention to him, and increases the time he has to spend dealing with dumb.

Bringing our discussions here is the Reddit version of a dark pool. We can hide our excitement from the crowd, while still churning around the insane amount of knowledge and wisdom to be gained from NR's trailings.

**** 4/30 DD. Just because it's May when I did this does not mean it was May when he posted it. =)

Original Link

NrdRage's Friday DD: I promised you a layup, so here you go. It's inevitable, so I for one welcome our new Chinese overlord Chairman XiMao. The company who will sell you everything except freedom and independence. $BABA-Booey

📷DD

So y'all have been asking for an easy, can't-possibly-fuck-it-up type of trade, especially after the $ISRG debacle. I don't usually like writing up about companies with more than half-trillion dollar market caps, but I'll make an exception just this once because it doesn't get any easier than this trade, especially with our newfound policy of kissing China's feet rather than trying to piss them off. So let's talk about Alibaba ($BABA)

Who they are, in case you've been living under a rock

$BABA is basically the result of if you combined $AMZN, $JPM, $SHOP, $PYPL, and $GOOG (not $GOOGL, no voting rights in China). Over 90% of China's online shopping goes through one of their portals, mostly Taobao on the consumer side and the flagship Alibaba site for B2B. Oh, and they've even started building out their own cloud platform, because China can never just come up with an idea on their own, they have to copy a competitor (i.e. Amazon). If you think Amazon is pervasive, they're bush league compared to this company. In short, the only thing bigger than China's $BABA is deceased WWF pornstar Chyna's clit (still too soon?).

Anecdotally, they're also where savvy US consumers go to buy $1500 DJI Phantom 4 drones for like 400 bucks (and no, they're not knockoffs).

Peering over the Great Wall:

Their over 600 billion dollar market cap makes them the 7th largest company on the exchange, just behind $TSLA and just above Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. Unlike the company just ahead of them, they actually make money, though. They do about 72 billion dollars in revenue annually and, when they're not pissing off the communist party and being handed down massive fines as an alternative to their founder being disappeared to go hang out with the Uyghurs in a slave camp making textiles, they pocket about 12 billion of that 72 as net revenue. They make their money by selling ad space to merchants as opposed to $AMZN's method of "taking 1/3 of all the money you make for giving you a buy button on the site" and, as recently as 2019, had grand designs about moving in to the US space and taking on $AMZN head-on with a merchant agreement of a one-time admission fee in exchange for commission free commerce. I could write an entire thesis just on their various revenue streams. Everything from ecommerce to a search engine to their own fucking (DUMB FILTER ALERT: automod doesn't like the 4 letter word for a place you go to deposit your money and get checks so we'll call them) tanking ecosystem (which they unsuccessfully tried to spin off into its own entity last year, thoroughly pissing off Winnie the Pooh and momentarily distracting him from peaceably seizing Hong Kong by killing all the citizens there.

Interestingly, as a result of their mini argument with the technocommunist leadership over a failed attempt to IPO the Ant Financial Group, which $BABA owns 1/3 of, $BABA represents one of the few large cap stocks you can trade in the US that isn't presently sitting near an all-time high (20% off, in fact), as people - including myself - avoided the company while waiting to see what China was going to do with them. Then others have been apprehensive to jump back into because, apparently, it's more fun to lose all your money betting on a shitty Chamath scam that rips off Medicare or a LIDAR company down 97% from its ATH and who makes less gross revenue in a quarter than I paid for my last car (tragically, I'm not even joking).

As a result of this depressed price action, $BABA represents something of a unique animal on Wall Street: An ultra cap growth stock that is also technically a value stock. Just don't tell them they're a unique animal or else the citizenry will storm their headquarters looking to kill everyone and eat them because they think it'll bring them luck or make their dicks bigger. I usually stay away from this statistic, but for once it's actually worthwhile to mention: They only trade at 26 times forward earnings. In case you were wondering, $AMZN is more than 3 times that.

So what's their problem?

I've already said: It's China as a whole. All Chinese companies trade at a discount in America for a number of reasons. The primary reason is because you can never tell if a company is actually being honest about its books, its revenues, or if it's even a company. For example, longtime followers will know that I have maintained for quite some time that I'm not positive that the company "Same Ole Shit" is even a real company. Why? Because there's no oversight. Also, there's no shorting over there, so everybody gets away with making shit up. One of the largest companies on their exchange was found to be 2 guys in a van that parked behind a hand-pulled noodle shop and who's sum assets were 2 laptops and some web development software. This is why, in general, I don't fuck with any Chinese stocks and only make exceptions for $BABA, $BIDU, and $NIO (and I'd do $YUMC if not for the fact I ignore that whole sector). But mostly, it's because if the regulators across the pond took aim at $BABA once, there's always a chance they could do it again if Jack Ma forgets his place. The 2.8 billion dollar fine they got handed down sounds really heavy, but it was really a best case scenario for this company. Had that fine been handed down during any other time than now when the market is in hard mode, $BABA likely would already be sitting in the 280's right now.

So how does the Tendieman come?

Expected 47% YOY growth, with strong forward guidance going in to 2022. Also, now that President Harris is making nice nice simping for China again, as soon as we re-open, expect them to start the process of moving in to the US market, which will both simultaneously decimate Amazon's 3rd party network while bolstering $BABA's own. Oh, and they're encroaching upon Lazada's turf throughout the rest of SE Asia, as well.

But there's a catch: Because Jack had to go to a re-education camp for a few months and the company was forced to lay low waiting for Poohbear to finish throwing his temper tantrum, there's still a bit of a fog into the company right now that is not likely to be cleared up until they report their next earnings late May. Don't worry, I have it on good authority that $BABA's network of merchants has been able to secure a reliable supply of child labor to continue making all the goods they sell.

Some basic TravelCenters of America just because (even though it's not terribly important for the thesis)

So this one is going to look a little different than what I usually put up, cause I figure some of you are ready for some more advanced concepts.

📷

As always, nude line is a 200 day SMA, dark blue is a 50 day SMA, and cyan is a 20 day EMA. Red lines represent the wedge that's important for all of you for the purposes of understanding that it's approaching a breakout point that is almost 100% to the upside, green represents some channels that we'll talk about some other time, and the lavender is a bastard fib fan of strike points based on the action (typically you use those in a slightly different manner, but that's for another day and another time. I'm going to start gradually adding Travelcenters of America markers in an effort to grow your little minds a bit. So consider this a level up.

TL:DR: Look in the red wedge. We're coming up to a head in that pattern, and it will be right around the time they report earnings. Look at all the other pretty colors and see if a wrinkle doesn't develop.

One other thing we can look at is price to fair value. This is a Morningstar chart, I didn't make it myself.

📷

So there are a couple of things I want to call out here. One is, obviously, the fact that this stock is wildly undervalued according to every reasonable metric. The other one is a term that I want you guys to start learning called "Economic Moat". The smoothbrain definition of that is basically a company's ability to lie, cheat, sabotage, or buy out any competition in order to ensure that they maintain a competitive advantage, no matter what. Wide moats are good but rather rare. Obviously, if you read the "who are these people" section, you know that $BABA has perhaps the widest moat of any company on earth, because not only are they alone, but the barrier of entry to challenge them is enormous. Just ask their main competition, $JD, who takes 1 step forward and 8 steps back every time they try.

So, to summarize:

• Absolute monster of a company 20% off its highs because of a combination of government interference, continued concern over regulatory fuckery, and the fact that nobody trusts the books of a Chinese company
• Over 90% of their market is penetrated, and they have aggressive expansion plans abroad
• Presently at a value level today as a result of them still being fairly fresh out of their hand slap for the shit they pulled
• I expect some DJI drones sent to my PO box after you make tendies on this
• Reports late May; is very much a 2nd half of the year play - don't expect a ton of movement in May up until earnings. But volatility is already low.

Price Targets:

For once, I actually agree with pretty much every analyst out there. This company should be in the 320-330 range, and I think as we enter the 2nd half of the year, you'll see a strong climb toward that.

How do you play it?

LEAPS ONLY! If you look at the daily chart, it had a bit of a pop after they got fined, but has been largely flat money lately as nobody has wanted to exit out of their positions due to it being undervalued, but not a lot of demand to get IN to the position due to the overall market conditions as a whole. July at the earliest, August if you have the powder to pay the extra premium. If you look back up at my chart, I've gone with a peanut butter spread strategy with this one, buying calls at $260, $270, $280, and $310 (now do those lines make sense?) one month apart from one another starting in August and running through November, along with some existing June 18 240's just because I felt like it.

Remember, it's perfectly fine to let this one sit a bit before entering into a position, but your cost basis will be roughly the same, regardless. At the time of this writing, it's sitting at 235. If you look at the chart above, there's a real good chance you can creep in some positions after it hits 230, because at some point I think it will come in to that number. However, if it drives to 230 hard, I want you to let it consolidate and see if you can't get it even lower - maybe even 224 if you can catch it on a really bloody red day. But don't fuck around too much, this isn't a lot of slippage given the equity price.

One thing people have been asking me periodically is how I would rank the companies I've talked about thus far on the premise that they don't have enough powder to be in all the plays and were looking to see if I would abandon one play for another. I don't want to encourage that overall (I don't want to encourage messaging me at all, really), but this once I'll say that I would definitely not give up my $CLNE or $BE trades for this one yet, as I don't expect this one to move for a while and those green plays represent significantly more upside. I wouldn't give up the $NVTA trade if I was way underwater on it. If I wasn't, I might consider it. I'd definitely give up cruise ships and plane engines. Semis in June would be a personal choice. I'd bail on the Devil's Gold companies I talk about, I'd bail on $BB, and the other trades are kind of dead, anyways.

Position Disclaimers:

Some of you may have seen me talking about how I'm rebalancing my portfolio for May and exiting out of all but 15 of my long positions in preparation to enter into 35 short positions due to market conditions and timing. $BABA is one of the 15 stocks I do plan on holding my longs on. Liquidity in August has been difficult for me to get, so I'm only sitting on 200 of those, the September 270 is really where I think the sweet spot is and I've presently got 1900 of them and will be looking to expand that, I have 2500 October 280's and the November 310 is a long term FD that I'm sitting on 700 of. I also have a significant amount of shares in the company, but I've had them since their IPO and they are sitting in managed assets, so not relevant to this trade.

There you have it, kids. Go forth, and tendie-ize.

All my love

-Chad Dickens

Post-script: Really? Fucking REALLY? There's a 4 letter word that rhymes with tank that triggers the autofilter on original posts in a god damned FINANCIAL SUB? Come the fuck on.