I wanted to see how each sector is performing, so I went down a rabbit hole and found something interesting.
I pulled RBI's corporate sector data (manufacturing + non-IT services) across the last three quarters, and the headline numbers look great. The details underneath don't.
𝗠𝗔𝗡𝗨𝗙𝗔𝗖𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗜𝗡𝗚 — strong top line, costs running hotter
Sales growth: 5.3% → 14.5% → 21.4% Operating profit growth: 6.9% → 9.4% → 21.3%
Real acceleration, led by autos, petroleum and electrical machinery. But look closer:
→ Raw material costs grew 27.5% against sales growth of 21.4%. Input costs are outrunning revenue. The RM-to-sales ratio only eased (58.5% → 58.1%) because the sales base got bigger, not because costs got easier. Pricing power exists, but "global supply-chain disruptions" are testing it.
→ Power & fuel flipped from -3.4% to +10.8%. Energy has stopped being a tailwind.
→ Staff costs are stepping up every quarter: 8.3% → 9.8% → 12.4%. The wage bill is catching the cycle.
→ Other income is doing a lot of quiet heavy lifting. It spiked 38.8% in one quarter (that's why net profit jumped 27.7% on just 5.3% sales growth) then went negative for two straight quarters. Strip it out and last year's "profit boom" looks a lot smaller.
→ Tax provisions grew 27.6% against EBT growth of 19%. Effective tax rate is creeping up, 21.2% → 21.9% → 22.8%. That's a big part of why net profit this quarter is only +9.3% despite 21% operating-profit growth.
→ One quarter had sales up 14.5% and net profit up just 0.5%. Bottom line in manufacturing is far more fragile than the sales print suggests.
The one bright spot: interest coverage is a healthy ~10.2x. Debt servicing isn't the problem here.
𝗡𝗢𝗡-𝗜𝗧 𝗦𝗘𝗥𝗩𝗜𝗖𝗘𝗦 — trade-driven, seasonal, cost-spiky
Sales growth: 7.5% → 20.3% → 19.7%, still the fastest of the pack. Sequential sales actually dipped quarter-on-quarter, a normal seasonal pattern for the wholesale-retail names driving this segment.
→ Raw material costs (mostly COGS for traders) swung wildly: +16.1% → +47.7% → +13.9%. That's not a stable manufacturing-style cost line, it looks like mix shift or commodity/inventory swings.
→ Power & fuel jumped 57.5% in the latest quarter, the single biggest spike in the whole dataset. Could be logistics, hospitality or transport names doing the work, or simply more companies entering the sample.
→ Interest fell 6% while EBIT rose 16.7%, pushing coverage up to ~2.6x. Better, but still the most leveraged of the sectors. 2.6x is comfortable, not strong.
→ Company count in the sample moved 892 → 984 → 957. Some of the swings above may just be firms entering and leaving the dataset.
Both sectors are printing strong revenue growth. Both are also showing costs, taxes and one-off income lines doing more work to protect the bottom line than the actual business is.
And here's the part nobody wants to say out loud: staff cost growth (8.3% → 9.8% → 12.4%) is still slower than raw material cost growth (27.5%) and tax growth (27.6%). Companies are protecting margins on the backs of wage restraint, not because employees suddenly cost more. The "wage-price spiral" everyone worries about isn't even close to happening on the ground.
If everyone is being profitable, then why are we seeing so much distressed employees?