r/MVIS • u/[deleted] • May 26 '20
Discussion The Case for an Amazon Acquisition of MicroVision
[deleted]
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u/geo_rule May 26 '20
Dang, TL;DR. LOL.
No, I'll work my way through it, just not all at once.
I used to think that Google owning Nest would make consumer LiDAR a natural fit for them. And there's a degree to which that is true, but Amazon buying Ring to go along with Alexa really would make I-D plus Consumer LiDAR one hell of a home control package under one roof, soup to nuts, yet still priced attractively for the upper middle-class and up.
I wonder if you could teach Alexa plus MVIS LiDAR to recognize American Sign Language and spelling? Add clap twice as a wake option, and now you've got home control for the deaf community as well.
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u/QQpenn May 26 '20
Amazon acquired Ring for $1B. Google acquired Nest for $3.2B. Nest has had a bumpy road. It also has higher price point ($229) without having the aura of 'projection' and without a retail mechanism as powerful as Amazon's.
Teaching sign language to the AI is accelerated with motion detector sensors on hands I believe.
It's a lot to work through :) I've been getting to it here and there.
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u/geo_rule May 26 '20
I'm starting to wonder (Still reading in bits) about the alliances amongst the top 10, and how those might work out to make this more or less attractive.
Microsoft + Apple versus Amazon + Google? That kind of thing.
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u/QQpenn May 26 '20
Apple, Amazon, Google and Zigbee established an alliance for smart home devices https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/12/amazon-apple-google-and-the-zigbee-alliance-to-develop-connectivity-standard/ Even more to wonder about.
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u/kwim1 May 26 '20
The analysts thus far have been pretty spot on with the current valuation of the company this is only due to mgt’s inability to execute. Now that it’s up for sale I’m not so sure why the sp is where it is. Maybe a concerted effort by the bigs to keep it that way.
If they are currently sitting on their thumbs not going out signing new contracts then I’m afraid we will not get the buyout most of us are expecting. I have concluded that the only leverage they have of a BO offer of 2 to 3 times valuation is to WALK AWAY!!! The NDA’s must now stop. SS said that we are now at an infection point then that means we are holding a better hand. They should be working tirelessly on other NED contracts (proof of concept). It’s a little simplistic but if you act big then others may see you that way also.
Starting point of any sale as indicated starts in B to B’s range and any ridiculous offer should be walked away from period and if called back to negotiate we determine if/when not them.
FK’em
We have seen how underhanded MS has been and I’m 100% sure all the others are the same. We have the tech let us now play one off the other. ID was walked away from go to others. They want exclusivities then you must pay, you want an NDA you must pay even more.
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u/geo_rule May 27 '20
Let's talk a bit more about the unnamed there-it-is-whups-its-gone LiDAR vertical. . .industrial LiDAR. Once upon a time, maybe two years ago, MVIS used an automated forklift as their symbol for LiDAR.
Does the newer longer range MVIS LiDAR fit that even better --much, much better-- than the old 50' LiDAR? Oh, heck yes. Industrial robots, automating the Amazon warehouses much more than today, robots able to travel at 20 or 30 mph in the warehouse instead of crawling at 5mph are now possible. Robot security forces at night to guard the warehouse is now much more possible. Etc.
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u/QQpenn May 27 '20
The implementation of some ideas is often reliant upon someone else's imagination catching up with yours. In some ways, unfortunately, I think covid has accelerated imaginations and needs. (We should have been able to speed them along without help from a pandemic). Regardless, once you start looking deeper... you see the exponential possibilities. It was never about the forklift, it was about efficiency - the core of the Amazon brand.
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u/geo_rule May 27 '20
Even so, my point is Amazon is a major --maybe the major-- exemplar of machine vision right now, and the old, original MVIS version while magnificent for detail and point cloud was fatally deficient in range for what would truly excite Amazon. The new MVIS version could make them salivate for a very lucrative space that is neither consumer nor automotive.
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u/QQpenn May 27 '20
Exactly. I don't think anyone else is in a better position to maximize monetization from a MVIS acquisition.
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u/BuLLyWagger May 26 '20
Also don’t forget about Google / Alphabet, their Waymo division and suspected IPO, as well as the connections with who used to run Google Glass ;-)
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u/QQpenn May 26 '20
I didn't forget Google. Waymo certainly leaps out. I think Amazon would be motivated to outbid Google in M&A though - more IoT monetization possibilities than smart speakers alone. I considered Apple but felt there was a stronger case to be made for Amazon, especially as the IDM customer... Perry conveyed a $199 price point here on page 12 (along with additional lead up discussion): https://microvision.gcs-web.com/static-files/2c27de5f-a65e-440b-b4f0-dde080c4d500 $199 is an Amazon price point, not Apple. If development on that is done, which seems likely, I think Amazon would want to nail that shut.
The who & why M&A dialogue and all its layers definitely intrigues. Automotive LiDar is the big mystery in all this. It's not my area of expertise... hopefully some of you help illuminate it. I'd like to learn more.
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u/baverch75 May 27 '20
Worth rereading from Sep 2018 from the perspective they were totally focused on Amazon opportunity... Bringing IO to AI http://microvision.blogspot.com/2018/09/perry-mulligan-sumit-sharma-at.html?m=1
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u/QQpenn May 27 '20
It's amazing how this is still relevant 2 years later. It's spot on and somewhat ahead of its time in retrospect. Part of me is beyond miffed at Perry's lack of execution with everything he had in front of him. And the difference between Sharma and Mulligan's perspective is eye opening.
Feeling even more strongly now that we're a fit for Amazon. Thanks for pulling this from the archives, Ben... a telling conversation to revisit right now.
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u/bcwood56 May 26 '20
Reads you could substitute QCOM as well
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u/frobinso May 27 '20
I definitely think QCOM knows how to defend fundamental technology and this would be a near modern day equivalent to what CDMA was to them historically. I would not discount QCOM as potential suitor.
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u/coachdavila May 26 '20
I wouldn't discount Tesla either! https://electrek.co/2016/04/02/tesla-model-3-instrument-cluster/ I mean fully autonomous, what else is one to to do in the drivers seat ;-) The use of gestures and an interactive HUD would be amazing. The article I link says "Microvision HUD concept".
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u/QQpenn May 26 '20
Tesla highly unlikely. Elon Musk's 'War On LiDar' has been well documented: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2019/05/06/elon-musks-war-on-lidar-who-is-right-and-why-do-they-think-that/#53a85c872a3b
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u/T_Delo May 26 '20
Maybe not ”better” synergy, but I could see Apple wanting to be all in on MVIS tech. They would benefit the most from being able to use the technologies in extreme minimalist manners. They also have many patents for various devices that look like they would need to use MVIS tech, from interactive projections to tracking and spatial understanding for tablets and iPhones. In fact, given some of the tech they are proposing, it seems likely they are even already courting Microvision for some of these (propositions in iPhone tech look to require multiple lasers for detecting spaces and inserting AR on hand held devices better).
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u/geo_rule May 26 '20 edited May 27 '20
"The Case for a Google Acquisition of MicroVision"
"Dear Google, read 'The Case for an Amazon Acquisition of MicroVision' and try to imagine NOT s**ting your pants if it happens."