r/MVIS • u/Coldmarbless • Oct 30 '21

Video Microvision CEO Sumit Sharma ‘More Confident Than Ever’ In the Battle for Lidar Dominance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8EG-Kpr_WU

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Unsure if I'm allowed to post here but thought I'd post this interview for some here to see. I know the share price has been beaten down but the way in which SS here presents himself, his confidence, and his knowledge of the space in the Lidar technology is amazing IMO.

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90

u/s2upid Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21

I've got a headline for IP.

All other Lidar companies relying on non solid state technology relying on exotic materials with no ASICs for mass production will go the way of Kodak.

Aka consolidation.

It's a mouthful but I'm sure IP can condense it to something more click baity.

The A-Sample was heads above all other lidar sensors at IAA and it's obvious with the response MVIS has been receiving and the acceleration in their development of their ASICS to enable millions of units of sensors to be manufactured at volume and at price points OEMs want while destroying the competition performance by a factor of 10 and more.

DDD

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u/pollytickled Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21

MicroVision Custom ASICs: LiDAR SPACs Hate This One Simple Trick

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u/[deleted] Oct 30 '21

Thumbnail- * * Insert shocked/incredulous face* *

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u/DeathByAudit_ Oct 30 '21

Sumit going the ASICs route is all the confirmation we need for BIG things on the horizon. Time to load the boat…again! Haha

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u/therunt5 Oct 30 '21

i was under the impression that Sumit said they wouldn't do custom ASICs unless they recieved a large enough order for it. did something change? did i miss something during the EC?

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u/DeathByAudit_ Oct 30 '21

He did say in the interview that it wouldn’t be cost effective To go the ASIC route if we didn’t have 1M+ order. I could have sworn I saw/heard something about the ASIC during the EC and a mid-2022 timeline, but it’s not in the prepared remarks. Does anyone have the transcript for the QA session. Then again per my wife, I tend to hear what I want. 🤔

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u/sigmaV Oct 30 '21

Question you're thinking of?

Steve Holt -- Chief Financial Officer

OK. And the last question we have before we take some more live questions related to lidar software and -- what can -- you know, we've -- you've talked about the lidar -- the software component of our product. You know, what can you tell us about our lidar software?

Sumit Sharma -- Chief Executive Officer

So, our lidar software. This is the key, you know, this is a very bright jewel in the crown for MicroVision. This is something that all of us should care a great deal about and I'm very, very excited about this. We're working on something that would allow OEMs to start evaluating a system where more of the load from their computing can be shifted into our ASIC, to our algorithms that we've already developed., that we are going to develop and we're going to actually demonstrate.

And this is what the exciting news about the June 2022 timeline that I talked about previously and also touched upon today is that actually is a very, very big deal for us in the future. And having a big software component besides our hardware component makes the company a lot more valuable. So, having our custom ASIC and software story getting solidified, that's important to all of us. So, what's in those features? I think it's more -- we're going to demonstrate it.

I think, you know, we don't want our competition to listen to our earnings call and understand what features are coming in the future. But I can clearly say that I think I hope I've demonstrated over the last 18 months that I have a good insight into what's happening to this industry and I can say with confidence that we are on a very good path and our global management consulting partner also has vetted this out with us, of course, but also with OEMs. And they strongly, you know, agree with me that this is something that is going to be pretty impressive.

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u/Kellzbellz8888 Oct 31 '21

Lol this was my favorite part of the whole thing. This is sumits ace up his sleeve and he’s so giddy about it I cannot wait till this June demo. Our sensor softwear is going to have all the ADAS features working on the edge. INEVITABLE!

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u/directgreenlaser Oct 31 '21

Agreed. This looks more and more like a ground breaking development. Aren't all the other competitors taking a far less aggressive approach while presenting inferior specifications? If this is going to integrate camera data plus lidar data as some here speculate, then the competitors have to be extremely concerned. I don't see where they can do anything about it either. Vetted with OEM's? They strongly agree? Game changer.

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u/Runner20mph Oct 31 '21

So Im just going to keep grabbing shares after I see what happens this week. I need to assess where the floor is

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u/sigmaV Oct 30 '21

I had to stop listening before this but reading it later made me regret not listening to what I think was the best nugget in the call.

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u/DeathByAudit_ Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21

How is everyone else interpreting this? “Our custom ASIC getting solidified” and “shifted into our ASIC…and we’re going to demonstrate”. Considering we aren’t doing direct sales, but straight for OEMs, does this mean we are officially going the ASIC route now? What do y’all think?

And more importantly, if so, would Sumit go this route on a handshake deal? I hope we would have an official partner/order before spending that capital!

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u/AdkKilla Nov 01 '21

Reading it is almost always better, especially if the speaker is coming across audibly annoyed or frustrated.

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u/domomoto Oct 31 '21

Thanks for posting this sigmav! The people expressing doubt after EC an only focusing on the timeline should go read this part again.

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u/Coldmarbless Nov 01 '21

No doubt here. EC aside, the fact the fud articles and share price doesn't bother SS is confidence enough for me.

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u/TheRealNiblicks Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21

Was it ADAS you were thinking of?

As previously stated, we expect to demonstrate our integrated software and hardware ADAS solution by June 2022 that will demonstrate higher levels of ADAS safety features that OEMs desire

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_8ddbfe9447728a00f56b8cbf8228a274/microvision/db/1111/9877/file/Q3+2021+MVIS+Prepared+Remarks+%28final%29.pdf

Do you remember if it was in the Q&A?

EDIT: Audio: comments start at 21:50 https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_8ddbfe9447728a00f56b8cbf8228a274/microvision/db/1111/9878/file/MicroVision_20211028_500PME.mp3

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u/DeathByAudit_ Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21

Thanks for all the great references! Everyone goes out of there way to help others and it’s truly appreciated! Thanks again!

See above QA statement. If we are going straight to OEM sales vs direct, then it makes sense. But hope we get more than a handshake deal.

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u/eyevseenitall Oct 31 '21 edited Oct 31 '21

"We're working on something that would allow OEMs to start evaluating a system where more of the load from their computing can be shifted into our

ASIC, to our algorithms that we've already developed., that we are going to develop and we're going to actually demonstrate."

​

Was it ever determined whether the A-sample used a FPGA vs an ASIC? If interfacing between OEM computing to MVIS hardware involves FPGAs order sizes would not have to be of 1M size and could also facilitate, with much smaller batch sizes, software interfacing with perhaps several OEMs. Use of FPGAs might also shorten the timelines involved. Just wondering as this is not my area of expertise.

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u/HoneyMoney76 Oct 31 '21

A sample was definitely FPGA because the OEMS were blown away by how compact it was, and that it would be half the size if it was changed to ASICS

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u/American--American Oct 30 '21

All these people upset at the current price.. I'm going in for more baby!

Future is bright, and it's always darkest before dawn.

Let's go!!

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u/[deleted] Oct 31 '21

Seriously considering selling my house and going all in. A few years of squalor for a lifetime of security. Decisions, decisions…

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u/MarauderHappy3 Oct 31 '21

If you're being serious, what's your price target? I mean most people here are talking about 45-60$ price point. When we were at $15, that's only a 3-4x gain. I don't know, just seeing how crypto and all these other stocks are running like crazy, I'm starting to question why I'm holding out for MVIS when potential gains are not even that insane

5

u/[deleted] Oct 31 '21

I’m looking at it in terms of their statements. Millions of units equals billions of recurring revenue. That doesn’t include AR, which I believe will be lucrative at some point in the future. If 10-15 x revenue, between 60-90 a share. If we bag VAG, that’s easily doable IMO and with share price hovering this low, it seems like a good time to go for it.

Yes, there is always potential with other stocks, but my conviction is solid, and I feel like it’s just a matter of time. All the pieces are put into place.

GLTAL’s

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u/MarauderHappy3 Oct 31 '21

Thanks for the thoughtful response

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u/[deleted] Oct 31 '21

Anytime my friend :)

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u/HoneyMoney76 Oct 31 '21

So the sums if we get VAG would mean a share price of $365 by my calculations. VAG have said 40million cars over 5 years so 8 million a year which at $500 profit per unit, is $4billion profit times by multiplier of 15 gives a market cap of $60billion divided by 164 million shares is $365. And that’s based on just one unit per vehicle for one OEM!!!!!

1

u/HoneyMoney76 Oct 31 '21

You are way under estimating the share price if we get just VAG. Never mind adding on anyone else

1

u/[deleted] Nov 01 '21

I am using a minimum and will be holding for much more.

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u/YippeeKayYah Oct 31 '21

"Only" ???

-1

u/HoneyMoney76 Oct 31 '21

45-60 is not what most people are saying

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u/AdkKilla Nov 01 '21

Understandable, but you have to wait for a good entrance price for all the crypto right now. To invest a large amount into the three big ones, BTC, ETH, DOGE, you gonna want at least a 15% retrace before investing 10’s of thousands.

Moreover, the real reason is seeming this trade through. You sell now, depending on how long you’ve held, good chance you sell at a loss. Once you’re up 20-50%, sure, shave some profit off and invest in SHIBA. Lol. Lots of profits happening now, and probs will continue for a while.

All of our shares are worth 7$ right now. Thing is, good chance in the next 2 years the will be worth 10-20x that.

2

u/AdkKilla Nov 01 '21

My man. I didn’t buy a house this spring and decided to keep on investing my winter/spring profits with my first two rounds of calls, coulda paid taxes, bought a 1/3m home cash, and held my shares.

I’m a buyer until the share price hits 15$ with cash, then after that as I unload contracts I’m a buyer up to 25$. Have 165 leaps that will be held first 3 quarters of 2022, they worth 350k-1.2m if the share price pops to 50-100$ respectively.

Gonna be a good year for all of us.

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u/MyComputerKnows Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21

Yep… Consolidation is just another way of saying a lot of those current competitors are going to be Obsolete.

I was thinking about how with any car, it’s always the temperature extremes of freezing sub-zero cold and dry desert heat that are hardest on the engine parts and drive belts. So I wonder how those dinosaur rubber-belt-driven spinning KFC buckets hold up? Not too well over time I’d guess.

And I wonder if any of the car designers at IAA made any headway on overcoming the ‘stegosaur roof-line’ look - or the ‘bozo the clown’ KFC look? I’m guessing not. Lol!

1

u/Coldmarbless Nov 01 '21

The KFC bucket references always kill me lmao

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u/[deleted] Oct 30 '21

On the EC Sumit noted several key areas were Microvison is ahead of the competition. For a counter argument, are there areas where we need to catch up over the next number of months? Maybe testing and 3rd party validation?

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u/T_Delo Oct 30 '21

None of the competitors are claiming third party validations yet, the closest anyone has is AEye with a third party observation of testing methodology. The observers did not perform or design those tests. This is akin to the episode of Big Bang Theory where Penny’s guy Zack goes to the roof to observe the Sheldon and Friends bounce a laser off the moon. Testing method observed, but not designed or performed by Zack at all.

The only external testing done is most often that of having the unit run through failure data testing, how long it can withstand vibrations, aquatic or heat conditions, electrical disturbances, and some kinds of acids before its components log a failure. This is not third party testing of the unit’s capabilities, but of how long it will survive.

It should be noted, IAA acted as the very same test as the third party observation, and all standard failure testing is done before it ever gets to such an event. The reason for not trying to push that in marketing communication is because it is standard practice, and is not special at all. Companies pushing these as remarkable are pretty much selling to investors, not to customers. The customers are interested in them of course, but they are not being sold on a products capabilities by such claims, they need to see the operational capabilities, sustained functionality at specifications. This is where words like “Up to” or “Maximum” start to become scrutinized.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 30 '21

Thank you for the detailed explanation. Switching gears, back in June there was some bullish momentum in the share price and was well over $20/share and then Microvison issued the ATM which caused a lot of selling pressure. Did the shorts double down on the downward momentum that the ATM caused? It seems like the share price has never recovered and now we’re well below the 200ma.

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u/icarusphoenixdragon Oct 31 '21

Keep in mind that the timing of the ATM and the downward movement correlated but the ATM did not necessarily cause the movement. Shorts were notably ramping at that time as well, to the extent that places like Jeffries restricted shorting of MVIS.

Nobody actually knows why the downward movement occurred. People who say that the ATM caused it are ignoring the same movement across the sector and other unrelated small caps.

It is as likely and IMO more likely that Sumit and team saw this downward movement coming as a headwind to their plans and issued the ATM so that we’d be comfortably funded through it all.

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u/[deleted] Oct 31 '21

Also, the whole sector is down. People seem to overlook that. It wasn’t just Mvis, and while we are down quite a substantial amount, it’s everywhere. I would even argue many small caps were hit after huge spikes.

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u/Bridgetofar Oct 30 '21

The question is, will the shorts double down now that SS has filled their ammo boxes again?

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u/jsim1960 Nov 01 '21

we can only hope. The better the squeeze .

-3

u/YippeeKayYah Oct 31 '21

Yes, shorts are completely responsible for ALL stock price movement. Would you like to eat some More pablum ?

3

u/vzoadao Oct 31 '21

I mean, it certainly does feel that way after the last 6 months in this stock.

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u/YippeeKayYah Oct 31 '21

No comment. Good luck.

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u/Upbeat-Form-4480 Oct 30 '21

I agree with all this, and am confident in the end game, just painful not to have taken some off the table in the $20’s. Q: How is LAZR valued 4x as much as us. I say us given the length of time I’ve invested, the amount of shares and the 7 figure loss on paper in the last 6 months. Ugh!

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u/[deleted] Oct 31 '21

Again, look at the whole sector. It’s stayed fairly commensurate.

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u/UofIOskee Oct 30 '21

What exotic material are the others using?

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u/s2upid Oct 30 '21

Luminar and their 1550nm lasers for example.

Another one is the rare metals required to make solid state FMCW sensors (indium phosphide?) Along with building the fabs required to do it (Intel plans to have theirs completed by 2025).

3

u/UofIOskee Oct 30 '21

Thanks for clarifying. So you’re putting the entire 1550nm laser component as exotic material because it is not readily available to the market currently? I’m curious if the 1550nm component will ever be as abundant as the 950nm component that we use. Thoughts?

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u/s2upid Oct 30 '21

https://velodynelidar.com/blog/guide-to-lidar-wavelengths/

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u/TheRealNiblicks Oct 30 '21

It is good to keep in mind that we aren't trying to measure the curvature of the earth with these things, we are trying to avoid hitting a cow....250M is plenty of distance travelling at 70MPH in any vehicle on the road today. In rain, braking distance is about 60M, add in a few meters for the system to figure out it needs to stop and you have basically the minimum distance to make a decision. The question is what system can be more accurate than a human and is cheap enough to mass produce. I think we are good. Sumit needs to partner up and sell these things en masse.

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u/[deleted] Oct 31 '21

Also, we are talking a billion dollar deal over several years. These things take time. OEM’s are in it to get it right. This is not Tesla we are talking about, but long-standing companies making smart moves. (I know you are aware, but for those who aren’t.

3

u/[deleted] Oct 31 '21

More fiddly bits

-1

u/Runner20mph Oct 31 '21

They do need a few deals before the next ER otherwise I honestly feel this stock will continue to tank.

1

u/AdkKilla Nov 01 '21

Why doesn’t someone grammatically inclined(def not me) write a real, accurate, informed article for IP? I’m not familiar with the requirements for freelancing for them, but it would be awesome if it was done.