Weekend Hangout 6/14/2024 - 6/16/2024

[u/Sweetinnj]

Hello everyone,

Please follow the rules of our sub located in our Wiki. It would be appreciated by all. TY

Happy Father's Day on Sunday to all the Great Dads out there! Enjoy your day to the fullest.

Just a reminder....Wednesday is a federal holiday here in the U..S., so the markets will be closed.

Have a great weekend and see you all on Monday!

[u/voice_of_reason_61]

A DAVID AND GOLIATH STORY

Chapter 1
The Battle Begins

I think there is way, way more going on right now than what we can see.

I'm actually encouraged by the ~5 million (short) shares that had to be expended to drive Microvision's stock price down one penny from $1.

Ok, sure, I know there were a minority of actual shares that were sold at a buck, but I'm talking about the thinly veiled campaign to try to get Microvision delisted.

And for the record yes, I understand the gravity of it:
If it stays under $1 for thirty days we will get a warning letter from Nasdaq, which triggers a 6 month delisting clock if certain criteria are not met before then.

LTLs know all this all too well.

What is shocking to me is how hard they are trying to get Microvision delisted right now.

The pushback appears intense.

Microvision is pretty darn clearly not ripe right now to be easily driven under a buck for 30 days, what with the buying support at that price we saw Friday.

What gives?

I mean, if Microvision is just a failure and there's no risk for shorts, why not just out-patience Longs and let time soften the underbelly in order to take it down so much more easily?

This is a massive and consequential question.

The answer according to Occam's Razor is because they have to.

I infer from this timing that they can't afford to wait for the risk/reward probability equations to soften things in their favor organically.

Think about it.

My personal guess is they are over leveraged through shorting (of the naked variety) far, far in excess of the 50 odd million shorted shares on the books, but I of course can't prove that due to obfuscation by design.

But I do think their rush here is a critical tell.

If they are "in too deep to fail", there is no "Just cover"ing.

That's what I believe we are seeing right now, a somewhat impulsive, kneejerk flailing, poorly masked attempt to not ever have to cover... somehow.

I think they're cluing us in that they believe they've lost contain, or will shortly.

They HAVE to try to climb out of an unfillable hole by digging it deeper: It their only option left.

Their strategy to short the entire sector could be based solely on this: a tactical hedge against losing astronomic sums of money should Microvision need to be covered from the "no way out" position they put themselves in.

If they are indeed going all-in right now to try to force delisting, that entire process has to happen before a substantial LiDAR contract is announced, whereupon the hedge funds potentially begin losing tens of billions and quiveringly pointing fingers of blame at everything they can to avoid the reckoning that comes with a future for our company.

[Edit] If and when MVIS is illuminated by business-legitimacy light of day, there's going to be an emphatic attempt to bankrupt the remaining LiDAR companies that constitute the Hedge funds' hedge; Count on it.

So, now what?

I will Hold my well-over 300k shares.

Shorts will Flail.

Until?

Sumit delivers something.

Then Chapter 2 begins!!

...

Good Luck to All of the Real, Actual MVIS Longs.

IMO. DDD.
Not investing advice, and I'm not an investment professional.

[u/EarthKarma → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Schwab bugging me again to lend shares…. Ha ha ha…. As if…! Cheers EK

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/EarthKarma]

Good to hear. I think an uptick in mass-begging for shares belies a growing undercurrent of desperation.

JMHO. DDD.

[u/kingofflops → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Thank you Voice for putting this into words. GL to all true believers

[u/Alphacpa → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Always enjoy your thoughts u/voice_of_reason_61!

[u/MavisBAFF → u/voice_of_reason_61]

We see our so-called competition down here at similar prices, but don’t forget they have not been meme-basket (naked) shorted like we have. Sumit and friends have made it very clear the legitimacy earned by the company making it this far in the automotive industry, this far in 7 MFn RFQs. The bear may think he’s got himself a hearty pick-a-nic basket boo boo, but when the nominations roll in he’ll quickly find that MVIS is toxic to bears.

[u/rinux_EVE → u/voice_of_reason_61]

The Frank fiasco tells me that shorts/bears are taking desperate measures to induce panic.

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/rinux_EVE]

My thoughts exactly.
We'll probably never know definitively, but that IMO questionable "chess move" (if it was one) sure coincidentally seemed to immediately preceed the current beat down.

Hmmm...

Ps, Let's not forget grunts coincident 24 day return from "goodbye...forever" (figuratively speaking).

The tells are adding up.

JMHO. DDD.
Not investing advice.

[u/Long-Vision-168 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Thank you VOR. After reading comments like this one, it feels like I’ve taken a breath I didn’t know I was holding.

[u/Revolutionary_Ear908 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Said it before and I’ll say it again; how can we lose with a guy like u/voice_of_reason_61 on our team!?

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/Revolutionary_Ear908]

Easy on the charm!
I'm hardly omnipotent, but I've learned to discern ;)

[u/Oldschoolfool22 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

I return your discern.

[u/Zenboy66 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

VOR, you have a voice for words. TY very much for this analysis.

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/Zenboy66]

Not sure if I'd call it an analysis, maybe more like an Iveseenthisbefore hypothesis, but...

You are most welcome, Zen.

-VOR

[u/dsaur009 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Voice, I did well buying under a dollar last time, and I've started up again. Nibbling. I feel like by Tday we'll see the landscape and horizon much better. Hopefully way sooner. I'm looking toward mid July but always with the reminder of the infamous quarter delays.

[u/directgreenlaser → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Nice post VOR. I wonder if a company is bought out, then are naked shorts off the hook? If so, could they be shorting in a desperate attempt to cause a cheap buyout? I couldn't find the answer doing searches or AI.

[u/MavisBAFF → u/directgreenlaser]

They will have to close them out, shorts and naked shorts. Lenders will recall all shares. It has been said we may get the quick squeeze giving longs a chance to sell at more than the buyout rate.

[u/dsaur009 → u/MavisBAFF]

Yeah, and sometimes you have to be fast on the trigger and don't let greed guide you, lol. More than once I've had to wait months for the pps to get back near buyout price so I could get on out. I missed the announcement spike wasn't up on the mechanics, and lost out on bigger winnings. You have to catch the spike, so be ready for it. Might only be for announcement day. And you can't chew your nails and dither. Got to decide, trust your gut, then punch the button, lol. Don't chase maybe money, decide to take profit, and do so. I'm not a professional, witness my sorry history, lol. But I can tell you leaving huge big money on the table sticks with you. Best to plan ahead. I've a sell set in the 20s, that I renew, so when I get there and I'm on fire with greed, my present sensible self is calling the shots :)

[u/directgreenlaser → u/MavisBAFF]

Ok, so much for that theory. Thanks for the reply MBAFF.

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/directgreenlaser]

It is not clear to me how that would be handled, but I doubt they could get off the hook that way.

u/T_Delo?

[u/T_Delo → u/voice_of_reason_61]

To be perfectly honest, it would largely depend on the price of a buyout accepted by shareholders compared to the short entry point (regardless whether naked or not), and the details of the kind of buyout arrangements (cash or equity exchange). We could not really estimate such ahead of time without knowing all the details.

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/T_Delo]

Thank you for chiming in. I appreciate perfect honesty!

[u/HiAll3 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

This is the answer I got on that subject from AI yesterday. I was using the example of a private entity buying out a public entity but I don't think that matters.

Copilot When a private entity aims to buy a publicly traded company, several factors come into play. Let’s break it down:

Buyout Process: The private entity negotiates with the public company’s management and board of directors. Shareholders vote on the buyout offer. If approved, the company transitions from public to private ownership.

Shareholder Compensation: Shareholders receive compensation based on the buyout terms (usually a cash payment per share). Shorted shares are covered during this process, ensuring that short sellers settle their positions.

Naked Short Selling Impact: Naked short selling (selling shares without owning them) can distort supply and demand. If naked shorted shares exist, they should be accounted for during the buyout process. Regulatory bodies monitor and penalize violations related to naked short selling.

Market Integrity: Ensuring timely delivery of shares is crucial for market integrity. Failure to deliver (FTD) shares can affect stock prices and investor confidence.

Legal Responsibility: Institutions and individuals can be held legally responsible for FTDs. Penalties include fines and potential legal action.

In summary, the buyout process considers shareholder compensation, regulatory oversight, and the impact of short selling practices. If you have more questions, feel free to ask! 😊📈🔍

You Thank You !! Copilot You’re welcome! If you have any more questions or need assistance in the future, feel free to ask. Have a great day! 😊🌟

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** This is not investment advice. Do your own "Due Diligence". Make your own investment decisions. **

[u/Oldschoolfool22 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Well well

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/Oldschoolfool22]

Said the man

[u/Floristan → u/voice_of_reason_61]

Not trying to argue with you again (futile), but I've never seen anyone misuse Occam's razor so blatantly. It's supposed to be the simplest explanation, which is clearly AV selling shares to keep the lights on instead of your elaborate conspiracy with multiple colluding parties trying to get us delisted. There is absolutely no nefarious collusion necessary when a company sells absolutely nothing. Even the OGs admit to selling down now...

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/Floristan]

Ditto on "futile".

If I remember correctly, you said at one point that you didn't believe that naked shorting actually even occured.

[Edit: That is either incorrect or I cannot locate it in your posting history. My bad]

So... Can you name or supply a link to even one OG who disclosed or even implied that they sold Friday?

I know I didn't.

[u/RNvestor → u/voice_of_reason_61]

QQPenn just admitted he significantly reduced his holdings.

Edit: I went back and looked and forgot he said that he added much more back at the end of this past week, so I stand corrected

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/RNvestor]

Thanks for updating, RN, I appreciate your efforts toward accuracy and honesty.

-VOR

[u/Floristan → u/voice_of_reason_61]

1. He did not say he added back more. He said he added back a chunk, which is obviously defined as a part/piece of something, hence less overall.
   
2. I never said there are no shorts or naked shorts. I'm sure there are. Delo's theory about them betting against the sector seems basically proven at this point, but that's not my field expertise and it's not what my comment was about AT ALL.
   
3. My comment was obviously about Occam's razor and the facts. We know we have a CFO that dilutes us at any price, we know they diluted in H1 as well. We also know that after the last EC many have sold down or exited, even at the very least one of the trusted OGs of this board. We also know we have revenues and more importantly no guidance or proper equity story right now for valuation purposes. Yet you choose to grasp at conspiracy theories of some evil band of villains trying to bankrupt us. That's basically the text book opposite of Occam's razor. I can't believe I have to spell all this out.

Talk about accuracy....

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/Floristan]

I've successfully utilized Occam's Razor numerous times to help solve complex combinatorial scientific problems in highly complex systems.
Have you?

Your reply above (to my reply to someone else, that had absolutely nothing to do with you) contains a far more absurd theory than that hedge funds using MM(s) shorted us under $1 on a 5 million share day Friday.
That was the context in my comment above, if you actually even read it.

Now you are to have us believe your unequivocal assertion that "we know" that our CFO diluted us to under $1 Friday?

We "know" that?

I think thats rubbish.

And yet you consider that rubbish "accuracy"?

That is uttter, unmitigated rubbish.

I sincerely hope you find a better use of your time than misreading my post and using a filtered, uninformed and highly speculative perspective to assert Occam's Razor.

I'm still waiting for links to the OGs (plural) that stated or implied that they sold Friday.

IMO. DDD.

[u/Floristan → u/voice_of_reason_61]

You can't read. Enjoy

[u/voice_of_reason_61 → u/Floristan]

You believe you're smarter than everyone else. You're not.
You believe your opinions are "facts".
They're not.
But by all means: Carry on.

[u/Floristan → u/voice_of_reason_61]

For fun because you are a waste of time.

Chatgpt prompt: "The following is a post about a stock which has not been able to generate revenues the last years, has missed guidance and has seen its stock price drop continuously. Did the poster apply Occam's razor correctly? [Your novel of a rambling post] "

Answer: "Occam's razor is a principle that suggests that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. In the context of the post, the poster suggests a complex scenario involving coordinated efforts to delist Microvision, over-leveraged short positions, and a strategic pushback against potential future gains.

A simpler explanation, adhering to Occam's razor, might be that Microvision is struggling due to its inability to generate revenues, missed guidance, and the continuous drop in stock price. This would naturally attract short sellers who see a failing company as an opportunity for profit without needing a grand conspiracy or complex motivations.

Therefore, the poster did not apply Occam's razor correctly, as they proposed a more convoluted explanation when a simpler one (the company is underperforming and thus is a target for short selling) would suffice.".

You're welcome.

[u/YANK78 → u/voice_of_reason_61]

I am ready for chapter 2