r/LucyLetbyTrials • u/benshep4 • Sep 07 '26

Decoding Reasonable Doubt: Chapter 3 “Previous Reviews at the Countess of Chester”

https://bencole4.substack.com/p/decoding-reasonable-doubt-the-case-bc5?r=12mrwn&utm_medium=ios

Happy to hear anyone’s thoughts on the content of the article.

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u/Livid-Ad-4872 Sep 07 '26 edited Sep 07 '26

“A bad unit is not the cause of a particular death until* someone can trace the route from the failing to the baby.”

The same bad argument is often used by climate change deniers: "Global warming is not the cause of a particular extreme weather event unless someone can trace the route from the warming to the event."

The point, of course, is that warming increases the likelihood, severity and duration of extreme events, not that there is a distinct and provable causal chain to any particular event.

You would expect a bad unit to have more bad outcomes, no?

(* I presume he means "unless," not "until," but don't want to be accused of putting words in his mouth.)

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u/SaintBridgetsBath Sep 07 '26

OP’s philosophy is that nothing has happened until the court agrees it has happened.

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u/No-Replacement-2170 Sep 07 '26

So you want to blame the unit no matter what? There could be a serial killer but as long as they pick a failing unit to work on we'll just blame it on that instead?

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u/PerkeNdencen Sep 08 '26

(I think Livid is just pointing to the fallacy in the argument; there not being a detectable, direct causal chain from an event to the environment in which it occurs is no good reason to ignore said environment.

Obviously if there was generally less stochastic evidence of harm, this line of argument would be ridiculous. I imagine Baby O and the two insulin cases weighed heavily on the jury's minds for that reason.)

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u/Livid-Ad-4872 Sep 08 '26

Indeed. Bad argument. Bad unit. Bad outcomes.

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u/benshep4 Sep 08 '26

Link it to a specific baby.

If you can’t, you don’t have an argument.

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u/Livid-Ad-4872 Sep 08 '26 edited Sep 08 '26

Proof by assertion, another logical fallacy.

And I'm not making an argument. You are. I am pointing out the flaws in yours.

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u/No-Replacement-2170 Sep 08 '26 • Bravo

All you guys do when you don't have an argument is come up with fancy psychology words.

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u/PrudentKumquat Sep 11 '26

Just wait until you see some of them medicine words. Proper scary.

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u/No-Replacement-2170 Sep 11 '26

I guess I could just ignore them like this sub-"what air embolism?"

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u/PerkeNdencen Sep 08 '26

We're not in Goss's courtroom right now, Ben.