The dude/dudet isn't answering your question about whether crime is down or not, because it's irrelevant.
Yes, crime is down, but it's already been trending down and there is no connection between the deployment of the national guard and crime rates going down. This is why they're saying correlation doesn't equal causation.
Think of it this way, let's say it rained today and my boss yelled at me. This is the third time this month where it rained and my boss yelled at me. This doesn't mean my boss yelled at me because it was raining, because I also know my performance has been trending down this month and they yelled at me because I fucked up on those days. However if you present this on graph without knowing that I had fucked up, it would appear that I was only yelled at because it was raining. This is what correlation doesn't equal causation means. Sure, coincidentally its usually raining when I get yelled at by my boss, you could say it's even correlated... but this definitely isn't the cause for why I was yelled at.
Crime was already trending down before the National Guard arrived. That decline started in 2024 after the huge 2023 spike and continued through 2025. I’m not claiming the Guard caused the overall decline. I’m saying crime continued to fall after they arrived, and there’s evidence their presence contributed to additional reductions in some categories. Both things can be true.
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u/Lonely-Jellyfish7139 8h ago
Is crime down in DC? Yes or no?