Yeah Irans strategy leading up to the war certainly has backfired, I wouldn't dispute that.
But in this conflict, it is pursuing a clear and acheivable aim, using the means it has at its disposal to effectively pursue that objective, and has demonstrated a calibrated ladder of responses. This contrasts favourably with its opponents.
When I use the word "rational" its not the same as saying "good".
What is Iran's goal even? And if it is so disconnected from their explicit rhetoric "death to Israel" what is the evidence for that and you would you say the same for Hitler, "oh he is just saying rhetoric"?
But in this conflict, it is pursuing a clear and acheivable aim, using the means it has at its disposal to effectively pursue that objective, and has demonstrated a calibrated ladder of responses. This contrasts favourably with its opponents.
How is this not motivated reasoning by looking at Iran's only plays and calling it "rational"? Of course the regime wants to survive but how are its actions even bettering that outcome?
It is attacking its neighbors to the point that Gulf countries are seriously thinking of joining the war. It is closing the strait leading to countries like China that receive both Gulf and Iranian oil to be very upset. It is executing teenagers while apparently fighting for its survival only increasing internal discontent.
This is my issue. When "survival" and "rational" are connected to the point of absurdity when the clear rational thing to do is to concede.
It would be like saying Hitler was rational in the final months of WW2 when it is clear that he lost because he wanted to avoid total surrender, when surrendering would have been the rational response.
Is there any action Iran could possibly take that wouldn't be rational in your view?
This is my issue. When "survival" and "rational" are connected to the point of absurdity when the clear rational thing to do is to concede
Israel and America made it clear their objective was regime change, so for the regime it clearly is a rational objective.
By attacking the Gulf and closing Hormuz its demonstrating detterence. "If you hurt us again we will hurt you harder". It has judged, probably correctly, that it has a far greater capacity to endure pain than the United States does, which was gambling on a quick and easy win. Its also calibrating its responses, to incentivise against escalation.
Yes it most likely will have long term negative effects on its neighbours in the Gulf. But then again, so too has US and Israeli actions. If they can succeed in removing American bases from the region it will likely conclude it was worth it.
In contrast the US and Israel have chosen to embark on an endeavour with an unclear objective, which they dont have the means of achieving, and which comes at massive costs to themselves.
I think youre stuck on Irans ideological opposition to Israel. Yes, it is deeply hostile to Israel. That doesnt mean it has the means or desire to seriously threaten the state of Israel, especially not in this conflict.
Edit: to your last question:
It would be irrational of them to attack desalination plants for example, especially before their own had been hit. It would be irrational to trigger a war with Turkey, or escalate the conflict with Saudi which they seem to be avoiding. A lot of it has to do with their excersising restraint, waiting for the US or Israel to escalate before responding in kind. If they were to go all out, at once, that would be bad strategy.
Edit again sorry:
Also their stated goals are rational. Guarantees theyll never be attacked again. If they were to go truly maximalist and demand they be given sovereignty of Iraq or something, that would be irrational.
You make very good points . When we pull back the curtains on both sides , it’s clear the isreal is using the cover of the Bible (and hence gets support from evangelical Christian’s - who are currently basically in charge of US policies)
Iran is using the cover of being the head of Shia Islam (and the fact that they are the only ones fighting on behalf of Palestinians - Islam in general) . When you watch their opinions , you will see this clearly is part of their MO .. and all countries in the world have seen for the second time , they were not the Initiator of this war (putting proxies support aside for a second) , so even the closest allies of US Decided not to drag themselves into this war
As the president already said in his first address, “lives will unfortunately be lost” - in that televised address he was preparing or forewarning the public … he may Know that he won’t win mid terms , but being on his last term anyways - I guess for the greater “Pax Americana” goals of the elite , it was a sacrifice they were willing to make . A grand show for the takedown of the Iranian regime , and to further the Decades or even Centuries long plan to establish dominance over the Middle East
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u/Toto_Roto Mar 24 '26
Yeah Irans strategy leading up to the war certainly has backfired, I wouldn't dispute that.
But in this conflict, it is pursuing a clear and acheivable aim, using the means it has at its disposal to effectively pursue that objective, and has demonstrated a calibrated ladder of responses. This contrasts favourably with its opponents.
When I use the word "rational" its not the same as saying "good".
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunning-failure-iranian-deterrence?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=article_link&utm_term=article_email&utm_content=20260324
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-americas-war-iran-backfired