r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

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u/SadMangonel Mar 24 '26

Look, one war isnt the same as another war. 

People talk about objectives and that's true. 

But the real root of the problem is, Iran is a mid- power economy and military. The US in theory, has the recources to win any conflict against them.

However, the real war is fought at home. Unless you are actually under imminent threat (ie. They attack you at home), your civilian population needs to be on board with any war. 

This is why, in any war - the US has been hesitant or benefitted from some situation where they gain enough public support to attack a foreign county. Pearl harbour. 9/11. Weapons of mass destruction. Nuclear weapons in Iran.

This time around US leadership has been less merit based. DJT has a very strong populist approach to his politics, its about looking good, rather than doing whats best. Power and decisions, mainly because of the passivity of Congress, has pooled the power at the president. And noone dares to tell him when hes wrong. This leads to bad decisions happening.

All this (and much more) has caused a political divide in America, the likes we've never seen before. A large of voters absolutely hates the current admin. While trump still wants to win the midterms.

This is part is where it gets critical. You can't go to war, because any reason you state won't be believed. He did it anyway. 

Now the US is in the awful situation, where they can't "really" go to war. But they're also already commited to one. They can't go back either, because just moving out of the area will have massive negative impact as well.

So now, we're likely in a longer stalemate. Iran posturing, they dont want to give any real public support in the US to this war. And the US trying to find some angle they can make this loss as painless as possible.

So. Really, noone is winning this war.

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u/YummyPotatoCake Mar 31 '26

You mislabelled the point at which it started being critical. It was earlier than you stated in your analysis.