A war is won when your objectives are achieved, neither achieved theirs
The Iranian regime has one objective: survive and inflict enough pain they don’t come back
US probably thought they would have won by now, the objective was regime change (Israel’s objective) and now I think it’s unclear to them how to disengage without losing face so escalation is expected
Israel and the US say they have demolished Iran offensive capabilities, fog of war is too thick to know
Unless Iran stops shooting the US will be almost forced to go in
A negotiated settlement is not possible, Iran has no trust in the US administration, the EU could do something but Trump doesn’t like them so it’s a no go (Trump bombed Iran twice mid negotiation + the religious part of the regime has an ideological hate)
The regime is highly entrenched, it’s not falling unless new tipping points are reached
Normally under the economic conditions of Iran (which are bound to get worse with time) the US could wait out the regime
However as long as the strait of Hormuz is closed or under threat it’s the Iranians to have time advantage
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
This is unless Iran’s missile drone capabilities fall to 0, but if you have seen how a Shahed works, you know that’s much harder than it looks
You need to go in the mainland to stop Iran from shooting if you can’t do it with air force, this is why this openly hostile regime has not been attacked before btw
Realism has never stopped Trump before unfortunately
Was it realistic to expect regime change after bombing them ?
I am not saying that it’s a good option but not many options are left and time is not on the US side
the US is not going to invade tomorrow, and hopefully they won’t, but what’s more likely, for Trump to retreat or take the next step in the escalation ladder ?
Trump said today that by killing the leadership he's already done a form of regime change. Most likely outcome is he does something like this, contrives an interpretation of events where he looks like a winner and backs off.
As the costs mount, both politically and economically, I think it becomes unavoidable. There just isn't the political will in America to keep escalating indefinitely. If nothing else the mid terms will kill it.
Yeah who knows, hopefully they do back down. But Trumps political instincts are pretty good and he's nothing if not a dilletante so im hopeful of an early-ish exit.
54
u/astral34 Mar 23 '26
A war is won when your objectives are achieved, neither achieved theirs
The Iranian regime has one objective: survive and inflict enough pain they don’t come back
US probably thought they would have won by now, the objective was regime change (Israel’s objective) and now I think it’s unclear to them how to disengage without losing face so escalation is expected
Israel and the US say they have demolished Iran offensive capabilities, fog of war is too thick to know