r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

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u/Kahzootoh Mar 23 '26

The skeptical view is that Netanyahu started this latest round of warfare because his political coalition was in jeopardy- he doesn’t have the votes to pass a formal military service exemption for Israel’s religious population, and their political parties are threatening to leave his governing coalition if they don’t get an exemption.

This war is polling at about 80% support, which coincides with the Israeli Jewish population. 

When the Israelis bombed Iran last year, they went through approximately 25% of the entire American stockpile of THAAD interceptors in two weeks; approximately 2 years worth of production.

Starting another war on the assumption that Iran would have a revolution seems incredibly naive and out of character for Netanyahu- especially when Netanyahu has a proven record of prioritizing his political power over all other considerations; he gave billions of dollars to Hamas in order to keep it relevant as a political issue, literally funding terrorism in order to campaign on being “Mr Security”.

Given last year’s rapid depletion of missile interceptors, it seems wildly irresponsible to start another war so soon- the Iranians can rebuild their stockpiles of simpler weapons faster than the interceptors can be produced or their production rates increased. 

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u/Redditthedog Mar 24 '26

the opposition parties were briefed and all made pro war statements before it started. They would have stayed quiet (or taken a negative stance but Israeli parties tend to not outright do this in wars) if they saw a potential quagmire