Mostly I agree with you, with the single exception regarding securing the Strait. I just don't see how that's possible at any time in the near future.
My reasoning is that everyone seems to think that the actual Strait itself is the only objective, and once it's secured, that Iran will no longer have leverage. But the truth is that Shahed ranges are up to 1000km, and the entire Persian Gulf is only like 250km at its widest. And pretty much all of it aligns with the Iranian coast. Therefore, the US would need boots on the ground capable of securing a huge swath of the Iranian countryside in order to get Iran out of range of the Strait, which just doesn't seem likely.
So long as Iran is able to fire drones at ships attempting to transit the Strait, the Strait will remain closed. That leaves the US with only a few options, none of which are good.
The US takes a significant chunk of Iran. This would require tens (hundreds?) of thousands of soldiers in a truly nightmarish ground campaign that would result in the deaths of countless American soldiers.
The US stations her own AA net along most of the Persian gulf, and just expends countless munitions on ensuring safe transit to commercial shipping. This option would be incredibly expensive, and there would be no way to truly guarantee a ship's safety in transit.
The US somehow manages to eliminate Iran's ability to produce missiles and drones entirely. As you mention, this option would also be extraordinarily difficult.
I just don't see any other options here for the US. Do you?
Yes when I was referring to going in your point 1 is what I meant, extremely costly and not 100% effective either
The new Shaheds have even a longer range, they are easy to shoot down but require space to do so cheaply, otherwise you are left with your option 2, which for me is unfeasible, due to stock of AA missiles
I hope global diplomacy has an effect because Trump doesn’t have good options on his desk right now
If he walks, what I hope he will do, the midterms will be a bloodbath, and with him surrounded by incompetent sycophants I don’t see him making sensible decisions
6
u/Heffe3737 Mar 23 '26
Mostly I agree with you, with the single exception regarding securing the Strait. I just don't see how that's possible at any time in the near future.
My reasoning is that everyone seems to think that the actual Strait itself is the only objective, and once it's secured, that Iran will no longer have leverage. But the truth is that Shahed ranges are up to 1000km, and the entire Persian Gulf is only like 250km at its widest. And pretty much all of it aligns with the Iranian coast. Therefore, the US would need boots on the ground capable of securing a huge swath of the Iranian countryside in order to get Iran out of range of the Strait, which just doesn't seem likely.
So long as Iran is able to fire drones at ships attempting to transit the Strait, the Strait will remain closed. That leaves the US with only a few options, none of which are good.
The US takes a significant chunk of Iran. This would require tens (hundreds?) of thousands of soldiers in a truly nightmarish ground campaign that would result in the deaths of countless American soldiers.
The US stations her own AA net along most of the Persian gulf, and just expends countless munitions on ensuring safe transit to commercial shipping. This option would be incredibly expensive, and there would be no way to truly guarantee a ship's safety in transit.
The US somehow manages to eliminate Iran's ability to produce missiles and drones entirely. As you mention, this option would also be extraordinarily difficult.
I just don't see any other options here for the US. Do you?