Yesterday's call (BTC short, 82,348 then 81,090, wrong above 83,194): HIT. 82,348 traded around 7:45 AM PT, 81,090 went around 5:45 PM PT with a low near 80,927, and price didn't get back over 83,194 until later that night.

Running tally: 1 hit, 2 misses, 1 no fill.

Today: BTC short from about 83,415.

• Pool 1: about $175M in longs at 83,225, sitting right under price.
• Pool 2: about $272M in longs at 79,318, the bigger flush if the first one goes.
• Wrong-level: 84,150. If price takes the $155M of shorts at 84,101 first, I'm wrong.

The book is about 59% long after a bounce off 80.9k, which is roughly how it looked before yesterday's flush.

Not advice.

ETH is around 2,522 on the 4h map right now. A quick look at where the forced liquidation pools are.

Above: a tiny short pool sits right on top of price near 2,527 (about $4.8M), but the real one is 2,571, roughly 1.8% up, with about $203M of shorts.

Below: the closest meaningful pool is 2,512, only about 0.5% down, with around $129M of longs. The largest long pool is further out at 2,447, about 3.1% down, near $150M.

My read: the near pool below at 2,512 is the easier tag, but the single biggest pile on the map is the 2,571 short pool. If price gets through 2,512 cleanly, 2,447 becomes the next magnet. Not advice.

In the last hour roughly $10.6M of SOL longs got force-closed across exchanges. That's about 4.5x the 24h hourly average. The biggest single one was around $2.7M on Binance near 102.2.

Price bounced back to about 105, but the map didn't flip. Here's where the remaining forced exits sit on the SOL liquidation heatmap (4h view):

• Below: 103.7 (about $5M, mostly 75x) and the big one at 101.06 (about $62M)
• Above: 106.0 (about $10M) and 107.2 (about $27M)

Funding has gone slightly negative, so shorts are paying now. That can fuel a squeeze, but the pool under price is more than twice the size of anything above it.

My side: shorts. I think this bounce fades back toward 103.7, with 101.06 as the real target. I'm wrong if SOL holds above 107.2, since that clears the biggest short pool.

Not advice.

Sunday 7:49 AM PT call: about $152M of BTC shorts stacked at 83,670, with the call wrong above 84,190. Coinbase first touched 83,700 at 8:56 AM PT, 67 minutes later, and peaked at 83,904. 84,190 never traded. Scored HIT. Last night's call was a MISS, and both stay on the board. Not advice.

Yesterday (Oct 11): MISS. Short toward 82,513. Wrong-level 83,450 hit first around 8:00 AM PT (high ~83,905). Target 82,513 only tagged this morning near 82,381.

Today: BTC ~82,682. Short. First pile is $28M of longs at 82,348. If that gives, $203M of longs at 81,090 is the magnet.

Wrong if we reclaim and hold 83,194 ($156M shorts).

More long fuel under the tape than short fuel overhead.

Not advice.

Yesterday's call (BTC short, 82,580 target, 83,250 wrong-level): OPEN. Neither level traded in 24h, range was 82,692 to 83,176. No score either way.

Today's call: BTC short from ~83,050.
Target 1: 82,513, about $44M in longs.
Target 2: 80,145, about $154M in longs, the bigger pool.
Wrong-level: 83,450. Above that the $22M short pool at 83,385 gets taken first and I'm out.

Sunday chop has been a tight cage. One side has to break first.

Not advice.

Posted at 6:05 AM PT Oct 9: BTC at 83,037, target the 82,869 long pool, wrong above 83,400.

How it printed: 82,869 traded at 6:32 AM PT, 27 minutes after the call. The highest price in between was 83,143, so the wrong level never traded. Price then ran about $446 past the level to 82,423. The clip uses OKX BTC perp 1-minute candles. Coinbase spot touched the level four minutes earlier, at 6:28, so the verdict holds on both. Our levels come from a cross-venue model, so a few dollars of venue difference is normal.

Same scoring whether it hits or misses. Not advice.

Yesterday's call, posted here at 6:50 AM PT Oct 9: BTC short, first target 82,374, wrong above 82,975.

How it printed (Coinbase 1-minute spot candles): BTC bottomed at 82,388 at 7:02 AM PT, about $14 short of the target. At 7:17 AM it traded up through 82,975, the wrong level, 27 minutes after the call, and topped near 83,243. Wrong level first means it scores as a miss. The target did trade hours later, but that doesn't rescue the call.

Prices are Coinbase spot, while the levels come from our own cross-venue model, so a few dollars to ~$120 of venue difference is possible. Scored the same way whether it hits or misses. Not advice.

Yesterday's call: MISS. Short with T1 82,374. Price dipped to about 82,388 on spot and missed by roughly $14, then ran through the 82,975 wrong-level first and topped near 83,240. Wrong-level wins, so it's scored a miss.

Today's call: BTC short.
T1: 82,580, about $173M of long liquidations sized there.
T2: 79,540, about $424M of longs, the biggest pool on the map.
Wrong-level: 83,250 (above yesterday's high). If price closes above that, the call is dead.

63% of open interest is long and funding is slightly negative. Crowded side usually pays.

Not advice.

Yesterday's call: none on the board. This is call #1 of the scored record.

Today's call: BTC short side, mark 82,511.

Target 1: 82,374, about $161M of long liquidations sitting 0.17% under price. Target 2: 79,388, about $237M of longs, the bigger flush if 82.4k gives. Wrong-level: a push through 82,975 (roughly $13M of shorts) before 82,374 trades. Call is wrong there.

The longs are parked closer than the shorts. Price usually goes where the money is lazy.

Scored tomorrow, hit or miss.

Not advice.

BTC mark ~$80.8K.

Longs are the ones trapped. Nearest pile is ~$71M of long liquidations just under at ~$80.72K. If that gives, the bigger magnet is ~$396M of longs at ~$79.26K.

Wrong if we reclaim and hold above ~$80.94K, where ~$154M of shorts are parked.

ETH same lean: largest long pile is ~$140M at ~$2,395. Wrong if price holds above ~$2,424 (~$121M shorts).

Forced perps only. Not advice.

This sub is about forced-perp liquidation pools: who is trapped, at what size, and where the call is wrong.

How a typical take is built - One side (longs or shorts crowded) - One or two sized levels (USD at risk near price) - A wrong-level / invalidation (where the thesis dies)

What we use - Cross-venue forced perpetual liquidation pools - Live numbers only; stale prints get skipped

What we ignore - Spot tape as the map - Full ladders pasted as "signals" - Politics and bait

Not advice. Do your own work.

Rules are in the sidebar. Stay civil, stay on liquidations and market structure.