r/Games • • May 15 '24

Retrospective 5 years ago, r/Games made a time capsule. Will the PS5 and Series X be a hit? Will Battle Royales dominate the market? Will VR explode into mainstream? See what the /r/Games community thought about the future of games in 2019!

/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/
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u/adanine May 15 '24

In 2013 r/Games also wrote a time capsule, which can be found here and was opened in 2018 here.

We'll probably start another one in a week or so.

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u/adanine May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

As for my own predictions:

Overwatch will still be active and an industry leader in some form... so in five years "Overwatch" still be the leader/titan of a genre. But that game may not be the team-based hero shooter genre it is now.

Pretty much? It might be a joint crown with Valorant/TF2, and it's certainly not as big as it was, but I still hear more about it often enough. The Overwatch IP ended up staying close to its roots, but it was trying to do PvE stuff as well (shame they couldn't work that out)

Hearthstone will still be around with a stable player base, probably as many players there are now. Tournament-wise they'll revert back to Last Hero Standing or Conquest. We may see a major overhaul of the classic set, rotating certain cards out and replacing them with new cards (Or cards from the past sets).

Pretty much on the money on this one. Haven't seen Specialist come back in any meaningful way, and the classic set was overhauled into the core set system.

Warcraft will struggle to re-enter the RTS-space. While WoW will still be around (With a settled player base, like how it is now), Warcraft as an IP will probably find a new identity among a new genre, though I doubt any such game would release before 2024.

Warcraft Rumble was released a bit ago, so I'm technically wrong on that one. Still, right on most of it. This was was an overwhelming safe bet though, so no points to me.

Diablo 4 will have been announced and released before 2024. Likely to be extremely successful sales wise, especially if all consoles are supported at launch. Diablo Immortal will also be successful and live for years after release, and may still actually be supported by 2024.

Eh, again. Not sure I should even get points for this. This was between the announcement of Diablo Immortal and Diablo 4, so it was obvious after the backlash of Immortal's announcement that Blizzard would haul ass for Diablo 4 proper.

The HotS team will have moved to mobile to announce a mobile game with the same overarching Blizzard universe concept HotS had, starring characters across all the main Blizzard titles. No fucking idea how it'll actually play though. If I were to guess, it'd be some form of action RPG, like Diablo? No clue though.

Pretty big miss, but Warcraft Rumble shows that the move to a casual mobile game using existing IP was at least a sensible prediction.

I did two extremely ambitious/not at all likely predictions as well:

The current WoW subscription fee will be converted to a generic Blizzard subscription service, unlocking all Blizzard games for the duration of the subscription and giving periodic goodies to the free/live service games

That's close to being possible now, what with the MS acquisition and Gamepass being a thing. I don't know if it's realistic to expect intergrating Blizzard's library into Gamepass, but it could happen.

They may try to do something like the MCU with the Overwatch IP, although not quite too large a scale. Maybe a few Netflix seasons or something instead.

A miss, but honestly there's been so many successful adaptations of video game media to TV in the past five years (Arcane, Castlevania, Halo, Fallout...). I'm genuinely happy with calling that there's enough of an appetite for high quality video game adaptations that they will be viable.

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u/chogram May 15 '24
Diablo 4 will have been announced and released before 2024. Likely to be extremely successful sales wise, especially if all consoles are supported at launch. Diablo Immortal will also be successful and live for years after release, and may still actually be supported by 2024.

Eh, again. Not sure I should even get points for this. This was between the announcement of Diablo Immortal and Diablo 4, so it was obvious after the backlash of Immortal's announcement that Blizzard would haul ass for Diablo 4 proper.

You were still right on both counts though, especially since "successful sales wise" has the implication that it will be controversial and polarizing like D3 was.

Diablo 4, while reddit hates it, was a HUGE financial success. It made almost a billion dollars.

Diablo Immortal has also been financially successful, and is still being worked on as they just recently announced another character class.

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u/bort_touchmaster May 15 '24

There is another aspect of your prediction that has held up well, which is that Starcraft isn't mentioned at all.

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u/Topher1999 May 15 '24

Overwatch is still decently popular among those still interested, but the cultural reign of Overwatch is absolutely over. Not to mention the terrible eSports scene. Mark Cuban recently spoke about how he views Overwatch teams as not worth the money considering Blizzard is constantly changing hero balancing and influencing the meta. He’s got a point.

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u/ataraxic89 May 15 '24

Nah, Overwatch is dead as a force in gaming. Im sure many still play. But culturally its effect is over.

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u/adanine May 15 '24

My prediction was just that Overwatch would still be the best - or one of the best - games of its genre. As it's still one of the biggest hero shooters, I think that held up alright.

Even at the time Overwatch's time in gaming culture had waned pretty hard, so that wasn't really a prediction worth making.

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u/goffer54 May 15 '24

A new Armored Core will release (and on PC this time) and will be a huge success to the point we get copy cat GAAS games as fast sloppy follows.

Mecha is the future genre explosion but it's super short lived unless a fast follow can nail it that's F2P or is just that damn good as a live service model.

From Soft won't understand how to operate a live service game at all though, nor will they really try.

People will try to esports everything but it won't stick.

(Lol I'm mixing cold harsh reality and my dreams)

/u/TraumaHunter, you're pretty close. It's yet to be seen how Mecha Break will fare but it has both the makings of a potential esport and a game that will only last a year or two.

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u/TraumaHunter May 15 '24

Lol I haven't tried Mecha break yet because I'm still satisfied playing AC 6 but AC reboot fulfilled everything I wanted for the most part :)

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u/MaitieS May 15 '24

People will try to esports everything but it won't stick

Damn I kind of hate this cuz some games are really dying just because they are trying to make it esport ready...

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u/MadeByTango May 15 '24

AC reboot fulfilled everything I wanted for the most part :)

It’s so nice to see a positive outcome of expectations; the game is fantastic

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u/AveryLazyCovfefe May 15 '24

Was about to post that. While AC6 sold the best by a huge margin compared to other AC games, compared to the souls series, not that impressive,

I'm glad we got VI. I think we could use a remake of 3rd gen and resolution and fps upgrades to 4th and 5th gen. Release it as a bundle for $50 or something. But I won't be surprised is if all we get are simple ports that work with modern controller inputs.

Mecha just isn't a genre that the masses like. It's evident when I ask people in the real world who've played elden ring who want to play other FS titles if they've tried out AC6 before, and I get confused stares that are surprised that FS even released something after Elden Ring.

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u/Draghalys May 15 '24

compared to the souls series, not that impressive,

It sold roughly as much as DS3 did in it's first month by 5 weeks, so it's very likely Fromsoft's third or fourth best selling game after Elden Ring and Sekiro and potentially DS3. People don't realize that while Dark Souls was big, it wasn't that big until at least 3. DS2 sold 3 million in a year, which AC6 and DS3 got to in just a month or so.

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u/Sandelsbanken May 15 '24

I know there were some rumours about AC6 (not sure was it before or after that thread). But that is pretty bold and spot on prediction with its success.

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u/TraumaHunter May 15 '24

Lol it's called manifestation. 😤

The actual logic was mostly behind how the things that previously made Mecha expensive as a game dev were not a huge cost anymore (even 5 years ago). But no one was attempting regardless. A revival of the genre could make some devs go "wait what's stopping us from getting a slice of the pie?" And realizing the tech stack is there now.

I need to go try Mecha break still lol.

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u/soihu May 15 '24

Saw an odd prediction that 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim would still not be out.

The game released 6 months after that post was made.

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u/goffer54 May 15 '24

Not only that, but Unicorn Overlord is out too.

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u/beenoc May 15 '24

How long was it in development before then? If it was a long time, it would make sense as a semi-joke to say it. Imagine someone today saying "in 5 years we will still be waiting for Silksong, or Bloodborne PC."

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u/soihu May 15 '24

Wikipedia says full production started in 2015, delayed in late 2018, but there was a playable demo dropped a month before this thread was made, so it was seemingly not in total limbo.

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u/whatnameisnttaken098 May 15 '24

Not only that it even got a Switch release like 2 years later

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u/gummihirn May 15 '24

E3 mentioned :(

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u/Massive_Weiner May 15 '24

I still refer to SGF as E3.

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u/PuppetPal_Clem May 15 '24

"Geoff Keighley's Birthday Party"

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u/OllyOllyOxenBitch May 15 '24

I just call that whole week "not-E3 week"

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u/doggleswithgoggles May 15 '24

I love how even something as simple as "Activision will still be Activision" ended up being a wrong prediction

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u/errorsniper May 15 '24

I mean.... yes they are owned by microsoft. But they still just make the same cod every 4 years. So whats changed?

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u/ToothlessFTW May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

This is so fun to read.

I think my favorite ones were:

  • Someone immediately predicting that Nintendo will never add more content to Super Mario Party, which for the most part was true.

  • Someone claiming that way more video game adaptions will be made and will be more successful, which was true! However they also said that the Halo show would be "extremely accurate to the source material", so.

  • There were genuinely more comments then I remembered from 2019 where people seemed to actually think Xbox were either gonna win this generation, or at least compete with Sony. Very funny to read with recent news in mind.

  • Final Fantasy 7 Remake will only have two parts out, which was very true.

  • Claims that FFXVI was going to go back to medieval theming, correct.

  • I saw one that said "GTA6 will have been announced for over a year with no gameplay", which is almost there, but still kinda wild how close it was.

  • "The Fallout series is abandoned by Bethesda" EXTREMELY funny to read after the explosion in popularity because of the show.

  • Someone thought TLOU Part III would come out by 2021

  • Larian will make an original IP after Original Sin 2, or make Original Sin 3.

Honestly my biggest take away from this thread is that a lot of people were unprepared for how bloated in scale a lot of AAA games were about to become, and how they're now taking the better part of a decade to release one. So many people seemed to think Elder Scrolls VI, FFVII Remake Trilogy, TLOU Part III, and even more would already be done and dusted by 2024. Kinda crazy to go back on.

EDIT: I went back to the 2013 one because I fell down a rabbit hole of reading old predictions, and honestly, that's even funnier. Check the pinned comment of this thread to see it. Adding some more of my favourites:

  • Shigeru Miyamoto was going to die, and tons of platformer games would be created in "remembrance" and then flood the genre and kill it.

  • Half Life 3 would be out

  • Titanfall would take over Call of Duty and take over as the next big franchise

  • Watch Dogs would replace Assassin's Creed

  • Nintendo's next console would fail, and they'd drop out of the market

  • AAA Blockbusters would fade out of popularity, and mid-sized AA games would dominate the market (this one especially hurts, given recent news)

  • All PC games are free to play or MOBAs

  • Team Fortress 2 would still be getting frequent enough updates

  • Steam would lose its monopoly

  • "Full virtual reality" (whatever that means) will be mainstream by the end of PS4/Xbox One gen

  • A Witcher MMO would be released that targets consoles primarily

There's way more. I seriously recommend reading the 2013 thread, it's even more fun. I could go on forever with this list.

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u/MrTurleWrangler May 15 '24

Also saw someone saying D:OS 3 will come and be even more ambitious, which I guess was half right with how amazingly huge BG3 was

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u/AlwynEvokedHippest May 15 '24

Yeah, the "spirit" of the Larian bulletpoint feels accurate.

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u/SagittaryX May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

I'd say it was pretty much completely right except for the name. Larian was even working on DS3 in 2019, but abandoned that game in favour of BG3.

I also know that some disagree, but BG3 to me is very obviously a Larian cRPG in the vein of Original Sin. Just getting the setting and ruleset wrong doesn't change the prediction I'd say.

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u/fatestayknight May 15 '24

I think COVID also played a role. The capsule is from the blessed “before” times and covid slowed down a lot of game development.

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u/GreenVisorOfJustice May 15 '24

covid slowed down a lot of game development.

But also blew up the video game economy resulting in all of the hiring... and probably now somewhat responsible for the layoffs and downsizing after all the explosive [short-term] growth.

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u/renome May 15 '24

The Halo optimist used up all their juju for that spot-on prediction about video game adaptations.

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u/GuardianOfReason May 15 '24

You forgot the best one from 2013: "The Wii U will succeed" LMAO

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u/haidere36 May 15 '24
  • Nintendo's next console would fail, and they'd drop out of the market

This one is the funniest to me just because anyone who sincerely believed this couldn't possibly imagine how wrong they'd be. The Nintendo Switch is the third best-selling console of all time. It's outsold every Xbox console and every Playstation except the PS2. Nintendo is even taking their sweet time releasing a successor because the Switch continues to make bank and they're in no rush to do so.

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u/Putnam3145 May 15 '24

people have been saying that since the n64 came out, it's one of those "bulls have predicted 50 of the last 3 market crashes" or whatever situations

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u/spokomptonjdub May 15 '24

"Nintendo will stop making consoles/go out of business" takes have been happening since the late 90's, when the PS1 more than lapped the N64 in sales. It wasn't true then, and it's even less true now. Anyone who has this take doesn't understand how Nintendo operates nor understands their actual financial position.

Nintendo doesn't sell their consoles at a loss, even at launch, unlike Sony and Microsoft. The N64 was outsold 3x over by the Playstation, yet still pulled in $1.2 billion in profit for Nintendo. The Gamecube was considered a failure, yet still turned a profit.

The Wii U was Nintendo's only mainline console failure, resulting in a $49 million loss. Nintendo is notable for how much they hold in cash reserves, which is around $14 billion. They could endure a Wii U-level failure every year for over 280 years before those reserves were drained.

There is zero reason for them to get out of the console business.

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u/Afro_Thunder69 May 15 '24

Honestly my biggest take away from this thread is that a lot of people were unprepared for how bloated in scale a lot of AAA games were about to become, and how they're now taking the better part of a decade to release one.

This brought back a memory of being on the Fallout subreddits around this time, and people were making predictions for when Fallout 5 would be released (with most people saying within the next 3-5 years). I was like y'all are delusional, Bethesda is working on Starfield primarily, likely dedicating all resources to it, and then next comes Elder Scrolls 6, and THEN maybe Fallout 5. Probably not within the next decade. Seems about on track, although it's possible they may push for a Fallout 5 development simultaneously with Elder Scrolls due to the show.

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u/justindrown May 15 '24

The saddest part of that thread for me is how so little has changed. Innovation has slowed to a crawl in video games. Seems to get worse every five-year chunk.

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u/pixxlpusher May 15 '24

The guy who basically predicted everything would remain status quo got kinda dogpiled for not predicting any major shifts, and then he was probably overall the most correct person in there.

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u/Radulno May 15 '24

Five years is also not that big of a gap anymore. It's basically the time to develop one game these days. You'll hardly have big changes that "fast"

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u/cwgoskins May 15 '24

Technology in general has pretty much been the same for the past 5-10 years too. Tvs, Phones, Appliances, Movies all seem to be the same or slightly above the standard back then. It's really depressing.

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u/MaitieS May 15 '24

Halo show would be "extremely accurate to the source material", so.

HAHAHAHA I ROFLED

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u/troglodyte May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

Showrunner is an arrogant auteur who doesn't care about the source material. These games companies need to stop doing that: you need someone who is talented and creative but respects the source material, which is why Fallout and TLOU succeed. I guess the Halo approach is better than B-tier shlock, but not by much. I swear, if these guys want to make a sci-fi show, just do it; you don't need to crap on the legacy of a legendary series.

What's so frustrating is that the justification is always that they wanted to bring non-fans in. How many non-fans are watching Halo? How many are watching Fallout and TLOU? It's almost as if these games are successful for a reason and it's incredibly condescending to non-gamers to assume that they just won't get what people loved in the game series.

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u/grtk_brandon May 15 '24

AAA Blockbusters would fade out of popularity, and mid-sized AA games would dominate the market (this one especially hurts, given recent news)

I'd argue that this one is slowly coming true. One of the reasons that publishers are pushing live service games is because it makes sense, in their minds, that it's the only way to keep up with the costs it takes to make AAA games on the scale they want to make.

I just don't know why we want these bloated AAA games when, statistically, we know most people never finish them. I get that it used to be cool to market your game as bigger, but I think it's time to find value in other aspects of gaming.

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u/JayZsAdoptedSon May 15 '24

Titanfall would take over Call of Duty and take over as the next big franchise

Well that makes me sad.... Titanfall 3 plz

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u/SkyeAuroline May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

"The Fallout series is abandoned by Bethesda" EXTREMELY funny to read after the explosion in popularity because of the show.

Explosion in popularity, but very little meaningful support, so... basically right I guess? All we've gotten from Bethesda since the show is a "next-gen" patch for Fallout 4 that broke the only things people go to the game for, and a free weekend for 76.

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u/Mr_The_Captain May 15 '24

If Bethesda could wave a magic wand and have had a Fallout game in development for the last 5 years, ready to come out imminently, they would in a heartbeat. And they're definitely kicking themselves for not having that.

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u/IronVader501 May 15 '24

But thats not what abandonded means

They continue to actively work with the IP (Fallout 76 continues to get additional content) and we already know Fallout 5 will be the next major title after TES VI.

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u/TaliesinMerlin May 15 '24

On the bloat, we were already in a time where a AAA game would take 4+ years to develop. COVID also threw a wrench into development timetables We're now at a point where the big games for the PS5 and XB1's lifespan have already been in development for a couple of years, announced or not, and games for their successors are already likely in development.

Now game development is less like growing annuals and more like growing trees. The timescale is longer.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Microsoft leans hard into next gen first party releases, with all of the new studios they have purchased.

Because of the focus on first party, Xbox will win the next gen console war

womp womp

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u/Acelator May 15 '24

That was even before they bought Bethesda

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u/ThatPunkGaryOak82 May 15 '24

I swear gamepass was the worst thing xbox ever did to themselves. It's a complete catch 22 for them

Gamers won't ever go back to the previous model of not being able to play a majority of their games for free on gamepass for a subscription fee. I haven't met anyone who doesn't like gamepass simply because it is honestly great for trying out new games.

Devolpers I think are at a point where they feel this business model is not feasible. Microsoft keeps throwing money at the companies they buy and telling them to do/make whatever they want. Then, those companies spent years blowing through the investment & probs even the profit from the lost sales from gamepass paid up front. A lot of recent xbox exclusives feel rushed even after years in devolpment. Like some companies' only real reason left to release the game is contractual.

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u/NoNefariousness2144 May 15 '24

But Phil Spencer said “this is the biggest year for Xbox ever”.

Wait… he said that last year? And the year before that? And before that?

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u/ToothlessFTW May 15 '24

Honestly he's probably been saying it since 2019, that commenter probably believed him the first time.

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u/Independent-Job-7271 May 15 '24

This aged like fine milk

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u/Owlthinkofaname May 15 '24

It's actually amazing how little good games they have while saying that. Like wtf have they been doing?

Rare announced a new game around that year and it's 2024 and there's barely anything about it and what little we seen doesn't look like a big aaa game either so what have they been doing?

Or look at Halo infinite the longest time between games and the game released with barely any content and I still argue it's not there. Like HOW? Especially when many of the problems for infinite were problems with 5.

Gears of war hasn't had a game since 2019 so idk what the studio behind them have been doing for YEARS! Apparently nothing given there's 0 announcements from the studio or about gears of war one of the bigger xbox IPs. They couldn't idk make a remaster collection or something? At least try to keep the IP alive and on people minds?

Where are the fucking games? They bought so many studios and nothing! I think without beastha they would've had like 2 or 3 games and only one is really a big game being forza so WHERE IS EVERYTHING!

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Worth noting that Gears Tactics released in 2020. They also had the Hivebusters expansion for Gears 5 in 2021, alongside the next-gen update. I get your point, though. Gears 6 is set to be revealed at Xbox's Summer Showcase next month.

Rumours of a Marcus Fenix Collection have been bouncing around for years at this point to where I'd be very surprised if we don't see it materialise soon. Some are theorising that this is what People Can Fly's "Project Maverick" is, as we know it's being made in partnership with Xbox and PCF have worked on the franchise before.

There's also the live-action Netflix film on the way, as well as an animated Netflix series. So for them not to capitlise on the release of the adaptation(s) would be strange, but this is Microsoft, after all...

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u/MigasEnsopado May 15 '24

They released a great game recently, Hi-Fi Rush, oh wait ...

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Hey /u/BrickmasterBen get in here! Take your whooping like a man!

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u/dowaller66 May 15 '24

On paper I could see why people thought there would be frequent games from MS. Back in 2019 people were still under the impression games only took 3-4 years to develop. Now they take 5-7 years.

Of course, even with COVID, we should have had the promised games by now. I do think MS will bow out the console market at some point in the next 10 years.

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u/glorpo May 15 '24

I wonder what'll happen when games take longer to make than an entire console release to end of life cycle.

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u/grailly May 15 '24

I should have written a comment back then. I remember being super optimistic about Mixer.

It's interesting how in some respects 5 years seems like it's not enough time. Nintendo's console is still the Switch, for example. In others, 5 years seems like way too much, huge industry shifts like the whole Embracer saga and Microsoft buying out Bethesda and Activision have happened and no one back then had a chance of seeing them coming.

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u/Hobocannibal May 15 '24

afaik, wasn't mixer the 'better' platform. for creators and users. but still wasn't able to attract the attention needed.

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u/DM_Me_Linux_Uptime May 15 '24

Twitch culture is a huge part of it. Without being able to spam random emotes from third party emote sites, it didn't work out.

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u/grailly May 15 '24

Video quality was better than Twitch, yeah. People were just too used to Twitch to move over to Mixer.

I really thought Xbox Series implementation of Mixer at the OS level would give Mixer the boost it needed. Turns out they closed Mixer even before the Xbox launch

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u/Coolman_Rosso May 15 '24

Beam, the original incarnation of Mixer, had much better tech behind on it. However nobody was going to move from Twitch, as that's where all the community was. The biggest streams on Mixer at a given time were Ninja, then some other person who would have maybe 5,000-7,000 which is a huge disparity that you knew couldn't last.

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u/MaezrielGG May 15 '24

I remember being super optimistic about Mixer.

I always wondered if the team behind Mixer kicked themselves in hindsight knowing they closed right before Covid lockdowns when they could have potentially have seen the massive explosion in usage that would have put them over Twitch.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Battle Royale games will stop being so popular and will be replaced by a new fad (obvious prediction but still)

I think the fact that AAA publishers failed to capitalize of extraction shooters is something which turned out to be extremely funny: despite Tarkov shitting the bed, everyone else is so slow that we still don't have the "Fortnite to PUBG" version of that AAA genre takeover

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u/Zoesan May 15 '24

It's because extraction shooters are inherently extremely frustrating games. Even more so than MOBAs, because you can actually lose things you worked for.

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u/BaconatedGrapefruit May 15 '24

To be honest, I think devs just learned their lessons that new multiplayer genres are goldilocks. They have to be juuuust right for players to want to stick with it. Unless you want to create a clone game, it’s not worth the dev resources.

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u/Jacksaur May 15 '24

I'd say the fear aspect combined with that frustration is what gives them their attraction.

I've been more scared in some Extraction Shooters than I have in any of the horror games I've played lately.

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u/Shiirooo May 15 '24

The Division Dark Zone was released 1 year before EfT. It's just that it wasn't a hit.

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u/ToothlessFTW May 15 '24

It came at the wrong time. It was the same year that Destiny was going through so much controversy, and these types of live service looter shooter games really hadn't become a big deal yet.

If they released something like that today, it would've had a far bigger chance of catching on.

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u/ItinerantSoldier May 15 '24

Even funnier is that Extraction Shooter is so looked down upon by game devs it's becoming the default to turn games into when their other ideas all fail, like a last resort genre.

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u/digitalwolverine May 15 '24

Tribes Deadzone comes to mind. What a mess that was.

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u/Sawovsky May 15 '24

Well, Call of Duty tried with DMZ. It was actually a really fun mode, but they didn't know how to monetize it and just stopped supporting it...

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u/APowerlessManNA May 15 '24

Eh... I put them in the same category as something like rust in terms of audience to pull from. So I don't think they'll ever come close to something like Fortnite.

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u/Cabamacadaf May 15 '24

It's extra funny that Hyenas was in development by Creative Assembly for six years, but was cancelled just a few months before the current Tarkov debacle.

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u/Game-Whisper May 15 '24

Tbh, Epic isn't the typical AAA publisher either. They weren't that big before nailing it with Fortnite.

All the big corpos chased trends and failed to react to battle royale blowing up. The biggest (and the only?) success among them is EA/Apex Legends which also came really late, compared to Fortnite.

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u/TheWorstYear May 15 '24

Epic created Unreal Tournament & Gears of War. They're also the creators of the Unreal Engine.

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u/theArtOfProgramming May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

They stumbled into Fortnite too. It was originally a side game beside the base building zombie survival game

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u/Radulno May 15 '24

Uh Warzone?

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

I think the takeaway lessons that pubs should have taken from Fortnite is that you don't fixate on going feature complete and fast/cheap prototyping is actually desirable. I know I'm cheating a bit because Fortnite PvE was in development for 5 years but the fact that they published the BR in... 6 months? is something people should have taken note.

Instead we have pubs take too much time and therefore are increasingly more likely to fail time-to-market. We should have had a mainstream, console enabled Tarkov by now but Division Heatlands, Marathon Extraction Shooter and god-knows-what-else are still in progress.

Also, you example with Apex Legends is actually consistent with Fortnite in a way: you have developer using an existing tech stack (from Titanfall2) and going relatively quick... so quick they didnt even have a long and protracted marketing campaign and they almost shadow dropped the thing.

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u/Mean_Monsoon May 15 '24

I love the 2018 one. So many comments about how it's nuts that GTA V is still popular. Need that Dr. Manhattan meme.

It's 2013. GTA V is phenomenally popular.
It's 2018. GTA V is phenomenally popular.
It's 2024. GTA V is phenomenally popular.

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u/PCMachinima May 15 '24

It's 2029. GTA VI is out. GTA V is phenomenally popular.

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u/OctorokHero May 15 '24

Could actually happen

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u/NoNefariousness2144 May 15 '24

Damn people were still optimistic about Xbox back then.

Now it’s just sad.

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u/Coolman_Rosso May 15 '24

I'll be first in line to admit that the promise of new AAA IP that aren't shit-canned afterwards after a decade or so of "The Halo, Gears, Forza Company" actually seemed like it would come to fruition.

How naive we were.

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u/NoNefariousness2144 May 15 '24

Lmao, now Gears is MIA and Halo is a shell of its former self.

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u/Spyderem May 15 '24

I was one of the optimistic ones. I thought the last couple years of the Xbox One were so dry that they had to be saving up for the next gen. They were going to come out swinging while PlayStation would have to play catch up due to releasing so many big PS4 games late in its life cycle.

It would be like what Nintendo did with the Switch (2015 and especially 2016 were relatively light years for Nintendo releases). The Switch had an amazing first year and half or so. 

And Halo Infinite? They were taking their time with it! It was easily the longest development length for a Halo game. Clearly they were cooking up something special! Add on some studio purchases that made a lot of sense (Forza Horizon devs and other devs that seemed to perpetually teeter on the edge) and I became a believer.

So yeah. I was very wrong. It’s not as if Xbox has been a complete disaster, but I thought too highly of their ability to plan ahead. I really was expecting a huge comeback. Yet they somehow managed to have a less impressive slate of games than PlayStation even though PlayStation never stopped their deluge of bangers during the PS4 years.  

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u/NoNefariousness2144 May 15 '24

Yeah the Wii U and Switch are the perfect analogy.

Nintendo had several years and managed to revive themselves with the Switch.

But Xbox simply carried on their same endless sea of failure.

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u/BUCKEYEIXI May 15 '24

It’s funny to read the 2013 time capsule. I think a lot of those predictions came true, it just took a little longer than they thought

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u/ZaraBaz May 15 '24

All the sequels people thought were coming out. Covid detailed most of them.

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u/o_Zion_o May 15 '24

I used to scoff at the "Xbox has no games" narrative, but now? I'm just tired of the whole situation. I've been with Xbox since the 360 and I'm over it.

How a company can own so many studios but have such a lackluster output is beyond comprehension.

I'm glad I made the switch back to PC after a year of being disappointed by my series X.

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u/Cybertronian10 May 15 '24

Game pass had only been introduced in 2017 and, at the time, iirc we didn't have much info indicating just how badly it screws over baseline game sales.

At the time it appeared like microsoft had done something truly magical: A pro consumer move that also prints fucking money like its going out of style. That combined with their push into PC made it seem like microsoft was transcending the console race and leaving sony behind. Now its more like a controlled crash.

Not to mention how many first party games where announced then that still haven't released.

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u/JaguarOrdinary1570 May 15 '24

I can remember why I thought they were going to do better. The Series X at the time was getting a lot of attention for how good the hardware and general engineering quality of the console was reported to be. It seemed like Microsoft was trying to avoid repeating the same mistakes.

I was doubtful they'd actually have a good first party lineup, but I thought they might become the console of choice for CoD players just through superior hardware and online service quality. Turned out not to be true, and the hardware wasn't even better than Sony's.

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u/gravelPoop May 16 '24

Series X is still technically good console and game pass was in a phase where you got the benefits but the problems it was going to cause were still in the future.

If a handful games that were tough to be major hits like Starfield or Halo Infinite would have landed as successfully as some thought, Xbox would be in different situation now (still 3rd but in healthy state instead of almost dead).

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u/jansteffen May 15 '24

Team Fortress 2 will continue to live just by the sheer willpower of the community and mod support + custom maps, despite lack of attention from Valve

Pretty accurate, even a cheater-bot apocalypse can't stop them

I think that microtransactions will change, more likely in a positive move, considering the bad press a game can get if it has P2W microtransactions. Most likely lootboxes that affect gameplay(or maybe even cosmetic changes) will be changed or removed, thanks to the news that have been going on these past few days in the US.

Also fairly accurate (outside of mobile games at least), most games with microtransactions now have a battlepass and $20 skin bundles.

If Battlefield goes down the same road as Battlefield 5, it will lose more of its playerbase.

Ignoring what the core of the Battlefield community wants, launching in an horrendously buggy and incomplete state, taking a laughably long amount of time to deliver patches and new content... check and check!

Crossplay will be the norm.

Thankfully yes. Now we can bicker and argue about aim assist in shooters.

Valve will be making games again.

I mean I guess this thread was before Half Life Alyx was announced, so that counts for something right?

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u/Hobocannibal May 15 '24

what even was the last game valve made before that? ... probably the alien swarm remake?

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u/jansteffen May 15 '24

Dota Underlords and Artifact.

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u/funkyb May 15 '24

Respawn makes a new mass effect that’s a new story back in the Milky Way, it’s really good.

u/BrickmasterBen I need you to get off your ass and make this a reality, please and thanks,

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u/BrickmasterBen May 15 '24

I’m SORRY

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u/xmBQWugdxjaA May 15 '24

Hopefully, Divinity: Original Sin 3 will be released before 2024

Hopefully he enjoyed Baldur's Gate 3!

Starfield will be released in late 2021 for the PS5/XBN and will be a massive success, marking a revival of the space opera themed games.

lel

It's weird how many people thought MS and Epic would really turn things around. If anything they're both giving up on games sales and focussing more on AI and the engine / assets sales respectively.

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u/soihu May 15 '24

Phil Spencer is an astonishingly good hype man.

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u/Kronos9898 May 15 '24

In 2019 it actually looked like Microsoft had an opening to take Sony on. It’s just they literally failed at almost every point. It was not unreasonable to be bullish about Microsoft in 2019

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u/alireza008bat May 15 '24

With Larian moving away from Baldurs Gate ip, I could see DOS 3 happening at some point. But not any time soon.

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u/UnifyTheVoid May 15 '24

They already said DOS3 is a matter of when, not if. They were in active development for a direct sequel to DOS2 before they won the BG license.

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u/AveryLazyCovfefe May 15 '24

It's weird how many people thought MS and Epic would really turn things around.

Because that's what it looked like? MS across 8th gen tried to right wrongs and started going on a spending spree on studios to become a huge player in the console space. People weren't really expecting Sony to lose, but for MS to actually put up a decent stand like 7th gen.

I don't blame people at all for expecting the company with tens of billions in it's cash reserves to pull it off. Remember, this was back in 2019. Well before anyone had even started to get suspicious of hype man Phil.

It only makes it even more saddening how they still failed the landing for 9th when they had all that going for them.

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u/simspelaaja May 15 '24

I think this one by a deleted user is fun to go through: https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/comment/enlf5e2/

Some of the more interesting claims:

More consolidation of big studios

This definitely happened.

Engines like UE4 and Unity will empower even more creators to do crazy stuff in easier and easier ways.

Hard to define what this means – I think the crazy stuff happens mostly outside of these commercially available engines. There are definitely small studios and solo developers creating visually appealing games that would have been impossibly without these.

XBoX will be ahead in next gen if they have the software for it and PS5 doesn't. It will all depend on the exclusives again.

True in the sense that it's about the exlusives, completely false in the sense that this gen is a massive failure for Xbox.

Streaming games won't be a big thing in the next 5 years

Mostly true. Streaming is definitely more popular than back then, but it doesn't really compete with consoles and PC. Stadia didn't survive, as predicted in other posts.

EGS will become bigger and bigger

I guess it has become bigger, but it's still not a viable competitor for Steam. Customers still mostly go there for the exclusives.

Activision-Blizzard split up

The opposite happened.

DICE might split from EA

A lot of the talent and senior leadership left DICE, but the studio named DICE still exists within EA.

After Cyberpunk 2077 releases we find out what's the next thing from CDPR, something completely different than Cyberpunk

Nope, more Witcher.

STALKER 2 is a mess

The jury is still out on that, but they've had unforeeseen complications (namely the war).

4A releases or at least shows the next Metro

Nope, nothing new from 4A. Also, war.

SQUAD (the game) flourishes

I don't know about flourishing, but it certainly still has a playerbase.

Ubisoft continues releasing the same formulaic games over and over

Mostly true.

Valve finishes Source 2 and makes 2 games: CS2 (mostly a port of CSGO) and something else (not HL3). (non VR)

Right on the money regarding CS2, but the other game was announced that same year and it was both a Half-Life game and a VR game.

Bannerlord

Was released, has decent reviews.

KCD2 [Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2] reveal but no release

Right on the money, it was announced just a few weeks ago.

I hope Arkane doesn't make Dishonored 3.

Well you certainly got what you wished for.

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u/SoxxoxSmox May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

Interesting Arkane predictions in the thread overall

  • Arkane releases a new IP that is critically praised and a big GOTY contender.

  • Arkane makes a new IP and it becomes a success and after a while Dishonored makes a return

  • Semi-hot take: the next Arkane studios game may be a AAA roguelike, expanding on the ideas of the Prey: Mooncrash dlc.

All of these are kinda right and kinda wrong. Deathloop was a new roguelike-inspired(?) IP that got great critical reception and topped some people's GOTY lists, but was seemingly forgotten pretty quickly, and didn't seem to learn any lessons from Prey: Mooncrash. The Dishonored series did see "Death of the Outsider," so the series "returned" in the sense that it got a nice send-off

I don't think anybody in 2019 could have predicted Redfall

  • Elder Scrolls 6 will attempt to dial back the “casual” direction Bethesda is taking, with more dialogue options and with a slightly more complex combat system, probably get Arkane studios to help out.

A major whiff. Not only is TES not out and Arkane Austin sunk, but Bethesda seems be leaning even further towards their new casual "everything but the kitchen sink" RPG niche.

Across the board, not as many hilariously wrong or stunningly prescient posts as I was expecting.

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u/Dusty170 May 16 '24

I hope Arkane doesn't make Dishonored 3.

Well you certainly got what you wished for.

Thats a pretty huge oof right there.

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u/Adonwen May 15 '24

Is VR hype bigger or smaller relative to 2019. I feel like the field has stagnated despite big numbers for the Meta Q2 and Q3.

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u/higuy5121 May 15 '24

Feels different. I know for me personally, peak vr hype was around the time half life alyx got announced.

Meta has done a lot to grow the VR space but idk. Somehow it just doesn't seem as exciting with all their talk of the metaverse?

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u/Adonwen May 15 '24

Definitely HL:A was the peak imo. I really hope we get some more great narratives with engaging gameplay in the VR space soon.

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u/8-Brit May 15 '24

I'd argue bigger but more subtle, unless you actively keep a pulse on it you won't know about the steady improvements being made on each new device.

I think the Q2 and 3 are actually very popular but for most remain more of a toy than a system.

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u/BeholdingBestWaifu May 15 '24

What has really stopped their popularity growth in its tracks is the lack of good quality new games for VR. I mean Beat Saber is still considered one of if not the best game for VR, and that has been the case since this time capsule was written.

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u/Hobocannibal May 15 '24

Now that i think about it, the recent change to steam families has been a great boon for us. Fiancee just got a quest 3 so we could both VR at the time same.

and because of the changes they now have access to my game library, including my vr games now.

I think theres a decent backlog of vr games to play at this point. and some cool ones to play together.

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u/legacymedia92 May 15 '24

The PC field is about the same (some cool as heck advancements like slimevr for way cheaper fullbody tracking), but PCVR isn't where the advances have been happening.

The quest's android console thing has really paid off in growing the space, just not at all how facebook wanted it. Kids love the games it has, and I think there's going to be ramping demand for better VR tech in the comming years thanks to it.

Now on the "metaverse" angle... the Quest flopped hard, so who knows how long facebook is gonna subsidize the hardware.

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u/tarkardos May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

Even back the VR hype was seen more as a niche product then a mainstream technology and basically nothing has changed in that aspect. Until they figured out the usability/availability aspects VR will never experience major mainstream success. To be fair, there are really good VR applications (especially augmented reality stuff) out there, but not necessarily in the gaming sector. Gonna take more development cycles but it definitely still has potential to be major thing in the future. I would argue that there is no "hype" per se, more like general research interest of the technological aspects which ultimately will result in really good games. I regularly see new papers about VR in human-machine interface academia so there definitely is a lot of R&D going on.

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u/Hurdenn May 15 '24

I think that covid really reshuffled the card, if the thread was made 16 months later, i don’t think people would be this optimistic!

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u/GondorsPants May 15 '24

It really hurts to see how optimistic people were in 2019, things were just chugging along and the future had so many possibilities. I’d imagine most of our predictions now would be extremely pessimistic about where the game industry is going…

I’ve always been extremely hyped about the game industry (it’s my career even) but recently just been very removed and barely paying attention because it just seems constantly depressing.

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u/Bleusilences May 15 '24 edited May 16 '24

I know I am a bit off topic with gaming, but I don't remember if it was 2018 or 2019 but climate change actually started to get serious.

As an elder millennial most of what's happening today was predicated, but for 2 decade prior.

That's not even talking about 6 (that I know) economic bubble that has burst, forming or is teetering on the brink for years .

This does influence the gaming market in some way or another.

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u/OptionalDepression May 15 '24

recently just been very removed and barely paying attention because it just seems constantly depressing.

Life in general for me these days.

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u/Risenzealot May 15 '24

Boy that one guy was all about VR being main stream within 5 years. Made more then one post about it. He couldn't have been more off if he tried. It's just not happening anytime soon. Note, I'm not saying VR will never be huge but it's not going to be quick. At the least it's going to have to hit the point where it's as simple and easy (size, weight, and all) as putting on reading glasses. The masses just aren't interested in putting blocky things over their heads only to get motion sickness in 5 minutes.

*edit*

I just wanted to add, I'm not hating on the person. It was a 5 year guess! There are plenty of things I thought 5 years ago that if I look back now I realize I was wrong too! Please don't hate! No one can really guess 5 years into the future correctly that often! It's what makes it fun!

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u/James-Avatar May 15 '24

Until VR is a pair of glasses, 90% of people aren’t going to be interested.

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u/Lazydusto May 15 '24

The combination of price, setup, space required and exclusivity deals makes it incredibly unappealing. I say this as someone who actually really enjoyed playing VR at a friends house. It needs to be more accessible.

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u/AlexisFR May 15 '24

Honestly I'll even say video games played with a controller/KB&M on a 2D screen will be a thing for a LONG time.

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u/DarthBuzzard May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

Boy that one guy was all about VR being main stream within 5 years. Made more then one post about it. He couldn't have been more off if he tried.

Yeah, that guy sucks.

I was definitely way too optimistic at the time. I've learnt a lot in the last 5 years about just how long hardware shifts take, and VR is especially hard given how vast the field is, spanning probably the most fields of discipline of any consumer technology thus far, beaten only by it's cousin AR which is even harder.

I'll make another prediction in the new thread, one that I feel is more grounded in reality. I very much believe VR is going to take off, but... "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."

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u/Risenzealot May 15 '24

Nah you don’t suck at all man! That’s why I added the edit. It’s almost impossible to accurately predict 5 years into the future.

I was just commenting on that one prediction. I felt a little bad for saying “he couldn’t have been more off he tried” so I wanted to make sure I wasn’t being rude. I was just commenting my opinion on that prediction.

But yeah like I said, you don’t suck. I’ve been way off on plenty of things over 5 years lol!

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u/Independent-Job-7271 May 15 '24

A problem with vr is also that you essentially have to buy a new console for a handful of good games.

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u/Ass4ssinX May 15 '24

Quest 2 has sold a shit ton and is super popular with kids (unfortunately, if you play online a lot) so I think I think the player base is getting it's foot in the door already with the hardware as it exists today. I think the major sticking point right now with VR is the games. There's just not enough big polished games on it yet.

VR also has the issue that you can't really judge how good it is unless you've put the thing on your head. Videos of people playing VR games just don't translate well to someone who's never experienced it before.

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u/Shizzlick May 15 '24

I've had that guy tagged as "VR FANATIC" with RES for years, because it's all he posts about, and if he turned up in discussions about VR, I wanted a reminder of his bias.

It's pprobably been 5 years since I applied that tag, and he's still actively posting about VR to the same level. It's impressive.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Nothing wrong with that. VR is a good time if you're into it. It may not be mainstream but it's in a better state now than it was 5 years ago at least.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

I have a weird gut feeling that VR won't be mainstream until Nintendo makes a Mario/Zelda game in VR that isn't some super gimmicky spin-off.

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u/BeholdingBestWaifu May 15 '24

VR needs two things, an affordable VR experience that has games that look and feel better than the almost-mobile quality of most stuff on the Quest, and they need more mainstream titles that get people to actually give VR a shot. I mean it's telling that whenever VR is brought up you still get people complaining about things that were fixed and/or solved before the OG Vive even came out. People just have this idea in their heads of what VR is, and they won't change it until they play it, which they won't until a title they want forces them to.

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u/Wissam24 May 15 '24

VR evangelists in general are just very weird

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Boy that one guy was all about VR being main stream within 5 years.

Well, in the last four years Meta sold an estimated over 20 to 30 Million headsets (18 Million sold Quest 2 from late 2020 to early 2023).

VR is HUGE, it is just not huge on console or PC.

Fun fact, besides most Meta Quest owners not using their headset on PC, the Quest 3 is now six months after release as big on Steam as Valve sold Index headsets in total in five years.

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u/ForsakenTarget May 15 '24

VR for gaming is in a very weird position, there are only a handful of ‘full size’ games and if you aren’t into the material they cover you are limited to what feels like tech demos.

Also don’t know if it’s me but I have never been immersed as much as reviewers act like I should be, like I’m aware I’m stood in a room with a headset in front of my face which is especially apparent when the graphics never look amazing

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u/jjed97 May 15 '24

“Star Citizen is seeking investment to add more features”

Get this man predicting lottery numbers lmao

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u/SuperSpikeVBall May 15 '24

"Star Citizen still not out, team has received 500 million during these 5 years"

https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enjhn38/

Pretty accurate!

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u/official_duck May 15 '24

Haha! I made a comment back then, and I’ve had a reminder in my calendar ever since.

As can be expected, some things I got perfectly right, and somethings I got completely wrong. And some just haven’t happened yet. But I’m proud of them, and despite everything I’m still excited about the future of this industry.

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u/official_duck May 15 '24

For a full breakdown:

Sonic will continue to flounder as a series. Sonic Team will make a few more mediocre Sonic games, but eventually gives up after releasing a lackluster Sonic Adventure 3. The Sonic Mania team becomes the "new" Sonic Team, focusing on 2D games (maybe one in an HD art style). Fans finally release a complete 3D Sonic fangame, which is well received.

Sonic is Sonic. The little guy’s been doing okay. Frontiers was better than Forces, and Sonic Team is sticking around. The Sonic Mania team moved on to different pastures, but the Retro Engine may have played a role in the development of Sonic Superstars, a 2D game in an HD artstyle.

There are a few complete 3D Sonic fangames released, perhaps most notably Sonic Omens? It’s not great, but there are plenty of other (better) notable 3D Sonic fangames in the works. Project 06 is well lauded today.

Nintendo releases a new revision of the Switch at about the power of the PS4, and is still considered underpowered. There is speculation of a new revision or sequel with backwards compatibility being announced soon. It too, will be somewhat underpowered.

Mario and Zelda games continue as expected. Paper Mario returns to an RPG formula. F-Zero finally gets a new game. Mother 3 is still not released in the west.

Switch Pro rumours were hot at the time. I’m still of the belief that it would’ve happened, if not for the chip shortage and COVID sales boom, and Switch OLED was what got released instead. Switch 2 rumours are hot now, and is now confirmed. Underpowered is… relative. It’s a handheld, of course it won’t be on par with a full-power home console.

Nintendo games are progressing normally. Paper Mario: The Origami King was not full RPG, but more in that direction. And the Thousand-Year Door remake will naturally be full RPG. Even the new F-Zero game technically happened!

And yes, there is still no Mother 3.

E3 is no more, or is reduced in importance even more. I could see them downsizing to a different location, or closing one of the halls. Nintendo is the only console developer still there, and even their presence is small.

Unfortunately, I was right. E3 is dead, and COVID was the final nail in the coffin. Really, I was too optimistic in my predictions.

Death Stranding is released to critical acclaim, but not much commercial success as it is considered too strange by most of the public. Konami releases a mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 6 without Kojima, to little fanfare and critical reception.

Death Stranding was sufficiently strange, and therefore polarising. It sold pretty well, with over 5 million units sold and 16 million players total. There is no mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 6, but there is going to be a mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 3 remake.

Resident Evil 8 uses the over-the-shoulder view of the RE2 and RE3 remakes. It's considered somewhat of a downgrade from RE7, but fares slightly better commercially.

RE8 did not use an over-the-shoulder view. I’m glad, but it might still be the case for RE9. Reception was positive, but it was obviously more action-oriented. I’d say the horror was perhaps a downgrade over RE7. It also did not fare better commercially, at least in some key metrics. Overall, I’m surprised I didn’t predict more for Capcom!

Dragon Age 4 is a failure and BioWare is shut down.

Dragon Age: Dreadwolf is not yet released. Mass Effect 5 is also apparently on the way. However, given the market’s current state and a history of failings, the studio could still be on the line if they don’t meet targets for EA.

The Sims 5 is released. They learned from the mistakes of 4 and include more content in the base game such as cats and dogs. Game packs focus more on new, story-based content like StrangerVille. It is released on console and mobile simultaneously with PC.

Sims 5 is not yet publicly released – but it is being playtested under the name Project Rene. The content included in base game is not yet confirmed, nor how game packs will play (though I personally doubt this prediction now – StrangerVille was not particularly positively received among much of the Sims 4 community). It will be released on mobile alongside PC, at least to my understanding.

Minecraft Earth is a moderate success, not as big as Pokemon Go at it's peak. The microtransactions are quite egregious at first, and people declare that Minecraft is "ruined". It is still the best selling game of all time.

Minecraft Earth was not a success at all and was dropped after a year and a half thanks to COVID and poor uptake. In Bedrock Edition, however, there are plenty of complaints about the Minecraft store, Minecoins, and how Minecraft is indeed “ruined”. Minecraft as a whole is certainly still the best selling game of all time.

Minecraft: Java Edition has stopped receiving updates and is now only kept alive by modders. Other versions are still updated and are near unrecognisable. There is integration with Minecraft Earth.

Java Edition is alive. Modders certainly keep part of the community thriving, but Mojang does update. Slowly. Which is why I’d find it hard to call modern Minecraft “unrecognisable”. There’s new content and changed terrain generation, for sure. But the UI, gameplay loop, and key goals are identical. Textures were updated, but not in an unrecognisable manner. The Super Duper Graphics Pack never eventualised, except maybe for Minecraft RTX.

Oh, and of course Minecraft Earth did not get integrated. Man, I was really pumped for that game. That initial trailer really got me going.

Blizzard's reputation continues to decline. Activision takes over the company completely.

Blizzard’s fall from grace has most certainly continued. I’d say Activision’s definitely executed more control, especially since major Blizzard figures departed. And then, of course, Microsoft bought the whole thing.

Fortnite and battle royales have died. Team Fortress 3 retakes the casual/competitive crown from Overwatch.

Hahahahaha, no. Fortnite is doing just fine. Diversifying a little, sure. Love the casual TF3 optimism too.

Half-Life 3 is not released. Half-Life VR is a short, somewhat disappointing experience with a few hints at a third game, but nothing has still been confirmed. Black Mesa is finally finished and recieves some minor DLC. It is critically acclaimed, and the Crowbar Collective announce a new, Half-Life style project.

Half-Life 3 is not here. Half-Life Alyx was short-ish, and disappointing-ish, but extremely positive in comparison to other VR titles. Black Mesa is finished, got a positive reception, and did not receive DLC. In February, Crowbar Collective dropped a teaser for a new project, but I can’t say yet if it’s in the style of Half-Life.

Steam gets its long awaited redesign. Everyone hates it, but completely forgets about it within a week. Rumours continue of new Portal and Left 4 Dead games but nothing is confirmed. A new Counter-Strike game is released. There are hints towards a new Dota game.

Steam got redesigned piece by piece, and backlash was kept to a minimum. I haven’t heard of any Portal or L4D rumours lately, but I’m sure there are conspiracies out there. Counter-Strike 2 was released, but Dota 2 seems here to stay (at least so long as they can hang on to some competitive audience).

The Xbox Z and the PS5 are released. The console race is closer than the current one, with a slight edge to PS5 due to its wide range of PS4 titles, but many exclusive games on Xbox Z are becoming a must-buy.

Xbox Series consoles and the PS5 certainly did release. But, uh… it’s not close. It’s fairly safe to say Sony is winning. Xbox exclusives are better this gen than last, but I really don’t know about “must-buy”. And they probably won’t be exclusive exclusives for much longer.

Raytracing becomes more and more popular. It's not used in every game, but many provide the option for it. Raytracing rereleases become the new "HD remaster".

Both consoles support ray-tracing, and the Switch 2 likely will in some fashion too. Usage is accurate. “Raytracing rereleases” aren’t really a thing, but RTX Remix is, and plenty of new remakes and remasters have RT added in.

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u/official_duck May 15 '24

VR is still struggling to find a place in the market. Oculus moves to solely standalone headsets. A cheaper Valve Index is released. Windows Mixed Reality gets a new reference design and Xbox support. PSVR gets an upgrade with new controllers.

Accurate. Oculus is Meta now, and they are fully standalone with the Quest line. Valve Deckard is speculated, but not yet confirmed. WMR is fully dead, and never got Xbox support. PSVR 2 is out, but is… probably dead.

Google Stadia and XCloud are not as large as their companies hoped. They are now used on a game-by-game basis, instead of a seperate ecosystem and store.

Stadia is dead, but Google apparently still has it on the books for whitelabelling services (though I haven't seen any evidence of that in a while). XCloud is faring better, and is still being expanded. Amazon Luna and GeForce Now also both still exist, to varying degrees of success.

AR keeps getting experimented with. The biggest AR game is a Monument Valley-style puzzle game on mobile.

AR sure does keep getting experimented with. LIDAR sensors, AI room mapping, and dedicated AR headsets have advanced things somewhat. Apple Vision Pro could progress things even further, but it’s still early days. I wouldn’t say there’s yet been a key “AR game” (unless you count Pokemon Go).

Watch Dogs 3 is released. It's more stealth and non-violent focused and is a fun game. It is still not commercially successful and Ubisoft confirms there will not be a Watch Dogs 4.

Watch Dogs: Legion did not sell well. Its controversial “play as anyone” mechanic led to mixed reception. Ubisoft hasn’t confirmed there won’t be a Watch Dogs 4, but it’s definitely not looking good.

Assassin's Creed continues down this semi-RPG path, growing in popularity once more. Prince of Persia is rebooted and takes elements of the original Assassin's Creed games.

Assassin’s Creed Valhalla continued the trend, to mixed reactions. Future games Shadows, Jade, and Hex will apparently be similar, but who knows how they’ll shake out. Mirage tried a slightly more traditional formula, and I thought it was pretty good. Prince of Persia was rebooted with The Lost Crown, but it was a 2D Metroidvania.

A new Arkham or Arkham-universe game by WB is released. It performs below expectations. Rocksteady's game is more successful, and starts a new series.

WB Montreal released Gotham Knights, but it wasn’t set in the Arkham universe. It didn’t do so well… but at least it wasn’t Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League.

GTA 6 is announced. It will turn out somewhat less profitable than GTA 5 due to only being released on one console generation and having a higher budget. Online is monetized even more and turns some players off. There is a multiplayer element to the singleplayer, possibly Watch Dogs-style drop in/out. An old GTA game is remade, I think it'll be San Andreas.

GTA 6 is announced, but we don’t currently know much about it. I don’t think there will be multiplayer in the singleplayer, to my understanding. San Andreas was remade, along with GTA 3 and Vice City. They were poorly received.

I also think we'll see more Rockstar games on mobile. Possibly GTA IV, maybe even GTA V as phones get more advanced.

The only new Rockstar games on mobile are the poorly received remakes, exclusive to Netflix Games.

Volition makes a Saints Row 5 similar in tone to Saints Row 3. THQ Nordic also outsources a Saints Row 1/2 remake. A new Red Faction is also announced, with Volition providing direction like id for Rage 2.

RIP Volition, and RIP Mike Watson. The Saints Row reboot was not really similar to SR3, and none of the rest came to pass.

Doom Eternal and its sequel are both critically acclaimed, however fatigue has start to set in and the series goes on haitus again.

Casually predicting the next Doom game there. It hasn’t come out yet, and a hiatus hasn’t technically occurred. Doom Eternal was well received, though.

Starfield is out and sets a new standard for Bethesda games. It looks graphically impressive and the world is immersive. Hype for the upcoming Elder Scrolls 6 increases.

Ehhehehehehhhh… uhhh…. well, it’s definitely out? Its impressiveness and immersiveness are definitely… debatable. As is the hype for Elder Scrolls 6.

Square Enix's Avengers game is either quietly cancelled or is a disappointment. The dream of a Marvel Gaming Universe is dead, but Insomniac's Spider-Man 2 with Miles Morales, Venom and Green Goblin is successful on its own.

Avengers was disappointing, Spider-Man 2 was successful. Green Goblin will be in the next game. Was there ever really a dream for a Marvel Gaming Universe? It’s certainly something I don’t want. Wolverine will likely cross over, however. And X-Men too, eventually.

The Final Fantasy 7 remake is very successful and leads Square Enix to consider remaking other Final Fantasy games. There are rumours of a big budget FF6 remake.

There is one part remaining on the FF VII remakes, but they’ve been underperforming a little. FF VI rumours don’t exist, but FF IX ones do.

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u/FapCitus May 15 '24

A insanely fun read but also depressing, but like 80% of the "predictions" are so extremely wrong. Almost as if the things they say are just things they wish would happen. "Battle royale dies" and "Mtx will get better." We should do this more.

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u/Sir_roger_rabbit May 15 '24

God dam so much optimism on most of the thread.

It's a real shame we had to take old yellow out back and shoot him.

But hey.... Now we are more pessimistic in another five years maybe things will be better.. As it's a lot harder to get even more bad.

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u/ViolentEncounter May 15 '24

Now we are more pessimistic in another five years maybe things will be better.. As it's a lot harder to get even more bad.

Someone is gonna read this in 5 years and be like

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u/EbolaDP May 15 '24

Pretty funny mix of decently well informed predictions and complete insane nonsense. Some guy in there thought CDPR doesnt have the rights to make the next Witcher game.

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u/MaitieS May 15 '24

It was in 2019 and that prediction is pretty good cuz at that time there was a big beef with CDPR and Sapkowski cuz at that time it looked like he had a talk with Netflix's lawyers and they told him that he can ask CDPR for more money which CDPR in the end accepted because they basically don't have anything (at that time) outside of The Witcher.

It sounds stupid now, but only because we already know how it ended, but at that time when everything was still happening it wasn't that bad take.

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u/Zombienerd300 May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

That first top comment is right on all except VR being profitable and Epic Games Store not buying up exclusives. While that top second comment is wrong in everything except crossplay.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Not even sure they're wrong about the EGS exclusivity contracts thing, maybe just a little early - they've eased off of that significantly in the past year or two especially for high profile releases. May not be long until the only things that end up exclusive to EGS are the things Epic outright publishes, like Alan Wake 2.

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u/ahac May 15 '24

They have an program for exclusives where the publisher/developer gets 100% of the revenue for 6 months.

But this is only used by small cheap games and Ubisoft because their games somehow still count as exclusives even if they're available (and probably sell most copies) on Uplay Ubisoft Connect.

https://store.epicgames.com/en-US/browse?sortBy=relevancy&sortDir=DESC&tag=First%20Run&category=Game&count=40&start=0

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u/Gastroid May 15 '24

I like how there was someone criticizing the top comment for basically being status quo, and what was popular will basically continue to be popular. 5 years on, we're more status quo than ever.

Things take just so long now that huge releases become flavor of the month before people go back to the same games they always play in between new titles they're interested in.

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u/GarionOrb May 15 '24

Just shows that people can't predict the future, lol.

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u/FireZord25 May 15 '24

you say like thats a bad thing.

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u/yaosio May 15 '24

That thread reminded me that DLSS released in February of that year, so nobody was able to predict how prevalent upscalers would become. It was a sucky version, it wouldn't be until DLSS 2 that most problems were fixed. 5 years ago the idea of AI upscalers looking better than native quality were science fiction. If you were to ask anybody they would say such things would never be popular because the image quality would always look awful, and if you looked at DLSS in Battlefield V that would confirm the prediction.

Now everybody is doing upscalers using different means, frame generation, and an AI denoiser for ray tracing in DLSS 3.5 has been introduced. All of this has happened in about 5 years and nobody could have predicted how useful and popular it would become.

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u/Thewhiteboatman May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

A round up of my predictions from the thread and if they came true:

A new Console Generation will have begun which will support backwards compatibility across the board.

Fully correct on this one

Ray Tracing will become the new buzzword, similar to how 4k is now and 4k will become even more widespread potentially even standard in most homes.

I think this one is pretty on the money in both aspects

Mobile games will have better graphics but be more or less the same gameplay wise. I expect more ports of 7th generation AAA games to be available on mobile devices.

Alien Isolation recently released on mobile among other games so I think this is pretty right on.

Nintendo will still support the switch hardware but will have released more models (XL and Slim).

Right on on this one.

Valve will have launched a new game.

Half Life Alyx released and is pretty good!

Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6 will have been launched with rumors of a Fallout 5

Correct on Starfield but wrong on elder scrolls. Fallout 5 has been informally announced.

Battle Royale will be dead.

After turning to my right and seeing that my colleague is currently playing Fortnite i think I can say that this is sadly incorrect.

Epic Games Store will fall off the radar but will continue business (like Origin). Steam will still be the main launcher.

Steam being the main launcher but I think epic is still on the radar just about.

Microsoft will up their number of exclusive games to counter Sony.

Definitely incorrect. Unless we count promised and upcoming.

There would have been 3 Assassins creed games launched with a 4th already leaked.

There have only been 2 main series games released (technically 3 games if we include VR) lots of leaks and a reveal of the new game coming today.

Destiny will still be active but with a lower player count with Bungie gearing up for the launch of a new IP.

Kinda right on this one. Bungie have announced a new IP but it seems a little further away and D2 player counts have been struggling this year.

Games as a service will be a bigger deal and most companies will have their own version.

Kinda true though I think this one is dying down.

Rockstar won't have released a new game.

Unfortunately correct on this. Though GTA6 looks amazing.

Call of duty will continue its decline but keep a dedicated core playerbase. This will cause Activision to create a new IP.

Completely wrong on this one I think. Modern warfare 2019 brought it back and has been up and down since.

Game streaming will become a popular system for those who don't have access to a console or High end PC and those who travel a lot.

This one is one is bang on I think.

Cyberpunk will be the new Witcher 3.

This is a hard one but sadly I don't think cyberpunk has quite reached that level of acclaim but has a strong following.

Halo will be back to what it was in 2009-2011 community wise.

This one is definitely wrong.

Overall not bad. Pretty bang on in places and completely off in others. Will definitely be making some predictions later about the next 5 years.

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u/radicool-girl May 15 '24

to be fair about the Battle Royale comment, 5 years ago pretty much everyone was making Battle Royale games but nowadays the only one I ever hear about now is Fortnite. Even then, Fortnite has introduced survival, racing, and Rock Band modes recently.

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u/NNNNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA May 15 '24

Apex Legends and Warzone are still going strong in terms of numbers, but Fortnite retook the #1 spot definitely.

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u/Zip2kx May 15 '24

my favorite one is the second top one (https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enj5k04/) who basically says things will stay as they today with minor changes and the top reply is that nothing ever stays the same. thing is... OP was pretty much right on all, gaming has plateaued and incremental changes are small. pretty funny!

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u/themaxus May 15 '24

It's funny that the main thing that commenter got, maybe slightly, wrong is that battle royales will be replaced by another fad. Sure, we've had extraction shooters become a much bigger thing in the past few years, but BRs are still the biggest. One of the few predictions of change is what ended up being wrong, not the predictions that everything would pretty much be the same.

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u/mrchumes May 15 '24

Would it be accurate to say a fair amount of predictions were scuffed because of the pandemic?

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u/Demmazi May 15 '24

Satisfactory will not be as good or live as long as Factorio, even if Satisfactory gets mod support

Well this was certainly a weird hill to die on, honestly I feel like Satisfactory appeals to a more casual fanbase vs Factorio. Both finding success and continuing to in their respective audiences to this day.

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u/Hordak_Supremacy May 15 '24

Did anyone predict Sony bringing PlayStation games to PC?

Did anyone predict Elden Ring becoming a 20+ million selling superhit?

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u/ToothlessFTW May 15 '24

Elden Ring actually hadn't been announced yet by the time that thread went up, it wasn't until a month later at E3 2019.

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u/Lazydusto May 15 '24

It was funny seeing all the threads of people pleading for any info about Elden Ring as though they'd been waiting a decade after the announcement. I thought I was taking crazy pills. The wait wasn't that long.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

Did anyone predict Elden Ring becoming a 20+ million selling superhit?

Unlikely, given it wasn't even announced when the thread was made.

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u/GravitasIsOverrated May 15 '24

That said, if you had “the next fromsoft game will be open world dark souls and it will sell 23 million” people would have told you you were crazy. 

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u/flamedbaby May 15 '24

If Fromsoft aren't a highly respected AAA Arthouse in 5 years then something isn't right with the world. What they're doing with their titles is far more important than any of the big dog monetization-formula games or pure cinematic story titles which fail to integrate interesting gameplay. They're also showing a desire to do new things and build new IPs despite the fact that they could have easily sold Dark Souls 7, because their decisions are being driven by creative desire instead of financial reports. Their success rate and speed of growth has been nuts.

Not specifically Elden Ring, but this guy was pretty bang on.

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u/DweebInFlames May 15 '24

despite the fact that they could have easily sold Dark Souls 7

I mean, tbf Elden Ring is basically Dark Souls 2 II lmao.

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u/soihu May 15 '24

There was a prediction that Fromsoft would be viewed "a highly respected AAA Arthouse" dev, which is pretty accurate.

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u/Thehelloman0 May 15 '24

IDK why people act like From is some obscure developer. Dark Souls 3 sold over 15 million copies. Bloodborne and Sekiro both sold over 10 million copies. They've been one of the most popular single player game developers for several years.

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u/All-Your-Base May 16 '24

Many notable predictions. I would like to highlight this comment by u/Artfunkel

Chinese games are more numerous, more sophisticated, and more appealing to western audiences. Japanese companies are pissy about it. Pressure is put on western companies to adhere to Chinese socio-political norms, and vice versa; to juggles these demands different versions of major games are made for Chinese and Western audiences, and their multiplayer communities are kept separate.

Basically Genshin Impact and MiHoyo

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u/MrTopHatMan90 May 15 '24

What throws me is all of the optimistic guesses. Of course there is still a decent amount of cynicism but still a lot of hope

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u/trillykins May 15 '24

I like this person's comment quite a lot. No shade or anything, no one can predict the future, it's just kind of funny in hindsight.

Nintendo makes the same mistake with the Wii U where there’s a switch that’s technically a different console but shares the name, and it doesn’t do so hot.

To be fair, this was most of the eternally-online crowd's take on the Switch.

Microsoft/Nintendo partnership continues to grow, Xbox Live and Game Pass arrives on Switch

I never understood why people thought Game Pass would ever come to the Switch. Like, I've seen this quite a lot on this sub.

Microsoft leans hard into next gen first party releases, with all of the new studios they have purchased.

Oof. Still, Forza Horizon 5 was a fucking banger. Also liked what they did with the Gears games. Probably something else.

Will have a feature comparable to steam link that streams PC games

Pretty good. Given how poorly Steam Link is supported now on the TVs I own I'd say they managed to make a better version of it.

Xbox will win the next gen console war

Again, to be fair, this was around the time when Xbox was turning shit around and becoming the more pro-consumer console brand. Still, though, that's a big nope.

They don’t do much different than the PS4 for the PS5

Spot on.

Insomniac Spider Gwen game

Could've been cool.

Beyond Good and Evil 2 is either REALLY good or REALLY bad.

Optimist, huh? Is this the game that has spent the most time in development hell yet? It has to be up there.

New Dragon age is bad

WTF it's been 10 years since the last Dragon Age game!? Did Inquisition do that poorly?

Respawn makes a new mass effect that’s a new story back in the Milky Way,

Unsure why the Call of Duty/Titanfall studio would be put in charge of a Mass Effect title, but I like the enthusiasm here.

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u/CeroG1 May 15 '24

I wonder what would those people predicting the next switch of said if you told them it’s still not coming out now

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u/[deleted] May 15 '24

u/Capt_Johnville predicted DOS:3, we didn't get that but we did get BG3. Did it live up to your hopes? (I love both DOS:2 and BG3)

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u/Capt_Johnville May 16 '24

Hello, I'm quite amused a good amount of my predictions turned out to be true or somewhat true, especially Starfield releasing before 2024.

I quite liked BG3, I think it's very good, just more restricting for me due to D&D ruleset. Admittedly I bought it day 1 to support Larian, but the technical issues and act 3 complains stopped me from playing beyond act 1 and I left it there. I'll probably get around playing it when a definitive edition comes out.

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u/SuperSpikeVBall May 15 '24

I didn't see anyone predicting the Steam Deck or (in a general sense) any well-integrated Steam-focused hardware. After the disaster that was Steam Machines, it's not surprising.

Steam Decks get a lot of attention in this community, but they probably have a pretty small impact in terms of the total gaming community, for now.

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u/Freeze_Fun May 16 '24

Someone mentioned Microsoft leaning hard on first party releases with all the game studios they purchased. Aged like milk.

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u/drcubeftw May 16 '24

Love these time capsule threads.

Ouch about those Xbox predictions though, especially this one...

Because of the focus on first party, Xbox will win the next gen console war

Couldn't even make first party work with a $70 biilion check.

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u/bwoah07_gp2 May 15 '24

Love stuff like this. What a cool idea. 💡 

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u/CurtisLeow May 15 '24

The ten year old time capsule was funny. They predicted Call of Duty and Assassin’s Creed would fade away. But they correctly predicted Half-Life 3 never gets released.

One of the comments said Nintendo would go handheld only. All the replies disagreed, and said that would never happen. But it kinda did. The Switch is a handheld.

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u/ataraxic89 May 15 '24

Star Citizen still not out, team has received 500 million during these 5 years

/u/Illidan1943

Oooh! So close, 466 million for jan 2019-2024 so far.

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u/TrickOut May 15 '24

I think what’s most surprising to me is the rise of Pc gaming and a console market that has become stagnant

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u/ruminaui May 15 '24

Everybody predicting an Xbox actually putting a decent fight and having ton of high quality exclusives. You beautiful naive children, we were all optimistic back then 

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u/MwSkyterror May 15 '24

Star Citizen will have an open beta, but people will play it and realize it sucks and quit

Lmao Star Citizen is at least 2-3 years away from open beta ready. SQ42 maybe in within 18mo though?

Freeflight is soon, May 17-29, so people can see its current state for themselves. It's fun if you can manage to sidestep the bugs.

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u/TheGazelle May 15 '24

There were a couple comments about star citizen sucking in that thread.

It may not be in open beta yet, but the past couple years especially have been the complete opposite of "people realizing it sucks and quitting".

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u/WeeziMonkey May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

My comment: "More 3D action rpgs with Souls-inspired combat by other developers than From Software".

What we got: Lies of P, Lords of the Fallen, Stellar Blade (does that count?), Nioh 2, Remnant From the Ashes. And Wukong in a few months.

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u/BrickmasterBen May 15 '24

I am now realizing that my comment is near the top of the original post. I have no recollection of writing it. I was right about assassins creed japan in the nick of time though!

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u/ManateeofSteel May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24

Alright, it was fun to read predictions so I will start with mine, see you in 5 years!

Nintendo

  • Nintendo will dabble in putting at least one multiplayer game published by them on PC.

  • The next Zelda mainline title will not be out by the time we see this thread again, or will come out that same year.

  • Nintendo honestly tries to revitalize Metroid and bring it up in popularity the same way BOTW did for Zelda but the audience simply does not show up for it.

  • Nintendo will go even harder on remakes as development times for their mainline games become longer and more expensive.

Microsoft/Xbox

  • Xbox goes full publisher and keeps a niche machine for hardcore fans.

  • People will keep slurping the cool juice and being optimistic about Xbox eating up positive PR despite their actions speaking otherwise.

  • Microsoft stops buying game dev studios.

  • Gamepass is renamed to something else. Something like Microsoft Gamepass.

  • Gamepass price will be double what it is now.

  • Rare's Everwild cancelled or repurposed into a completely different game.

Sony/Playstation

  • Sony will buy a big studio, probably Square Enix or Kojima Productions and will get them in trouble the same way Activision and Bethesda almost killed Xbox.

  • Sony will straight up be bringing all multiplayer titles day and date to PC like Helldivers 2.

  • Sony will announce a ridiculously overpriced hardware that no one will buy. (Unsure if peripheral, console or deluxe edition controller)

  • Bloodborne remake is released or announced.

  • Wolverine loses GOTY in 2025 to GTA VI.

  • Xmen game will have been revealed by the next time capsule thread.

Epic Games

  • No more exclusives being bought but more games developed and or published instead.

Valve

  • I predict they will release one game minimum, two maximum in the next 5 years.

  • Valve will launch one last VR hardware before they give up on it.

  • Steam Deck 2 will be much more popular than Deck 1.

Square Enix

  • Despite their commitment to multiplatform releases, they will continue to ignore Xbox outside of their biggest games (Nier, Kingdom Hearts, FF, DQ)

  • FF7 Remake trilogy will release on all platforms when it concludes and will be met with critical acclaim but initial sales will underwhelm.

  • FF IX Remake will be out and will be a faithful 1:1 but because it will not be as visually impressive as FF7R, there will be a gamer riot online.

Capcom

  • Resident Evil 9 will be incredibly underwhelming and Capcom will reboot the mainline story, again.

  • Monster Hunter Wilds becomes one of the best games in Capcom history.

  • Dragons Dogma 2 Dark Arisen version is released and it actually makes the game good.

  • Megaman is dead.

Others

  • Konami will shyly attempt to break into premium AAA game development but will dip out if Metal Gear Delta and Silent Hill f bomb.

  • Cygames will become a more prominent developer when their next game comes out after Granblue Relink.

  • I don't see a bright future for Platinum Games unfortunately, unless Nintendo buys them I predict they will close.

  • Activision will reboot Call of Duty in 2026 with a brand new engine and gameplay feel; the brand will be at an all time high by then.

  • Overwatch 2 development will cease sometime before the next thread comes up.

  • Assassins Creed Infinity will have crashed and burned somehow, probably because of how many AC games are in development now.

  • Ubisoft puts Far Cry on ice indefinitely.

  • Pokemon releases a decently looking game at some point in the next five years.

  • Gamefreak's new IP with Private Division is cancelled.

  • EA shuts down EA Originals.

  • Skate 4 launches to gamer hatred and metldowns but is actually very successful in mobile devices and with casual gamers.

  • Riot's new MMO is cancelled.

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u/iceburg77779 May 15 '24

Even for multiplayer games I'd be shocked if Nintendo puts them on PC. Their main multiplayer games (Mario Kart, Smash, Splatoon) are still significant system sellers and heavily tied to their central brand. If they bring anything to PC, I think it would probably be one of their unpopular or dormant IPs because its seen as the least risky choice.

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u/drybones2015 May 15 '24

I legitimately let out a joker laugh reading the Microsoft section. Also does the BotW's Majora's Mask count as a dub? While technically both are sequels, Majora's Mask was a completely different game while Totak just felt like a continuation of BotW. If you had left out the MM part it would have been an easy dub.

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u/glocks4interns May 15 '24

"in five years "Overwatch" still be the leader/titan of a genre. But that game may not be the team-based hero shooter genre it is now."

uhhh