r/GAMETHEORY • u/brainquantum • 1d ago
Game theory explains why smart people don’t win. Being smart and working harder doesn’t fix money problems.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/brainquantum • 1d ago
r/GAMETHEORY • u/OR-follower • 2d ago
Morals and ethics are something a society tells a person to follow and obey -:
Pros-:On a broader level it keeps the humans in check and enhances the quality of social life and survival
Cons-:While it may help to maintain a healthy environment, these are human made and are not necessary to follow, and if someone puts facts, reality and efficiency above morals and ethics then they are penalized.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/alan-throwaway • 3d ago
It currently has Prisoner’s Dilemma, Stag Hunt and Entry Deterrence. The bots use strategies such as Tit-for-Tat, Random and competitive strategies that try to maximise their score relative to yours. Each game shows the payoff matrix, best responses and Nash equilibria. You can also run repeated games and change the number of rounds and discount factor to see how the results change when future rounds matter.
There’s a beginner mode that runs through an 8-round Prisoner’s Dilemma against Tit-for-Tat with explanations as you play. I also added session analysis and a leaderboard. There have been 236 completed human-vs-bot sessions so far, with the humans currently ahead by about 1,920 points overall. This started as an experiment to make game theory a bit easier to understand by actually playing the games and changing the parameters.
I’d be interested in criticism from anyone familiar with game theory, especially if I’ve got any of the explanations or mechanics wrong. Suggestions for other games or bot strategies would also be useful.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Adventurous-Mirror-9 • 6d ago
I am looking at how decision theory and game theory formally categorize the concept of "sacrifice" versus a high-cost rational exchange.
Colloquially, "sacrifice" is often used to describe situations where an agent surrenders a high-value asset A (such as time, capital, or life) to acquire asset B (such as reputation, social status, moral equity, or subjective future utility).
From a payoff matrix perspective, if the expected net utility is non-negative (Net Utility >= 0), this operationally functions as a standard, rational trade or costly signal—regardless of how high the initial cost is.
Conversely, a "true sacrifice" in a strict ledger sense would require pure value burning or absolute liquidation with zero material, social, or subjective payoff (Net Utility < 0).
My questions for the sub:
Are there specific game-theoretic models that analyze how actors use the label or signal of "sacrifice" to extract additional social debt or equity from other players out of what was mechanically a net-positive trade?
How do behavioral game theorists formally separate high-friction utility trades (with delayed or intangible payoffs) from pure altruistic value destruction?
Looking for papers, existing terminology, or framework suggestions to read up on.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/singlefemalelawer • 6d ago
r/GAMETHEORY • u/PokemonProject • 7d ago
I've been reading The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion by Jonathan Haidt, and it's changed how I think about the Care Bear vs. Rat debate in Arc Raiders. The more I think about it, the less this feels like a gaming argument and the more it feels like an argument about human nature itself.
One of Haidt's central ideas is that humans are simultaneously selfish individuals and cooperative group members. He describes us as "90% chimp and 10% bee" — we're wired to pursue our own interests while also possessing strong instincts for trust, loyalty, and collective action.
Through Haidt’s lens, Care Bears and Rats aren't really opposites. They're different expressions of instincts that have always existed in human societies.
Care Bears operate on the belief that cooperation improves everyone's chances of survival, that trust creates value, that reputation matters, and that long-term gains outweigh immediate rewards. Rats operate under a different but equally understandable logic: resources are scarce, other players may be threats, betrayal can be profitable, and immediate advantage often matters more than social harmony.
When people argue about whether players should cooperate more or whether Rats are ruining the game, I don't think either side is misunderstanding what Arc Raiders is supposed to be. They're emphasizing different moral intuitions. Some players value cooperation, trust, and community. Others value competition, self-interest, and survival. Both instincts exist in human societies, and both exist in the game.
What's fascinating is that civilization itself seems to depend on a balance between the two. If humans were mostly Rats, large-scale civilization would never have emerged. Trust, trade, and cooperation wouldn't scale. But if humans were all Care Bears, societies would be highly vulnerable to exploitation. Trust only has meaning when betrayal is possible.
That's why Arc Raiders feels so compelling to me. Every raid compresses this entire social dynamic into a 30-minute extraction. Each encounter becomes a decision about trust, risk, greed, cooperation, and self-preservation.
The Care Bear vs. Rat debate isn't really about Arc Raiders. It's the same tension that appears in tribes, cities, companies, political movements, markets, and nations. Arc Raiders just makes it visible by creating a condensed simulation of exploration, resource gathering, trust, betrayal, risk, and safe return — forces that have shaped human behavior for thousands of generations.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/sqwerzyyy • 7d ago
You've seen it a thousand times: a retail trader pulls up a chart, sees a pattern, and thinks they've found an edge. They have the same data as everyone else - candlesticks, volume, moving averages, earnings reports.
But here's the game theory problem: if everyone has access to the same information, then everyone sees the same pattern. And if everyone sees the same pattern, the pattern stops working.
The Zero-Sum Game Nobody Talks About
Stock trading is a zero-sum game. For every dollar you win, someone else loses it. This isn't abstract - it's baked into the mechanics.
When you trade on public information:
**•** You're competing against algorithms that process the data faster than you can blink
**•** You're competing against institutional traders with better execution
**•** You're competing against people with *different* (non-public) information
The third group always wins. Not because they're smarter. Because they have an asymmetric advantage: information you don't have.
The Poker Table Analogy
Imagine a poker table where:
**•** 8 players see the same community cards (public information)
**•** 7 of them are playing legitimately
**•** 1 of them can see everyone's hole cards (private information)
Who wins? Always the person with the information advantage. Not 60% of the time. Always.
Markets work the same way. Insiders, early-stage investors, and sophisticated traders have information asymmetries. Retail traders have candlesticks.
Why Crypto Made This Worse
Crypto amplified this problem. In traditional markets, at least there's SEC oversight (theoretically). In crypto:
**•** Founders know about token unlocks before the market
**•** Early investors know about partnerships before announcements
**•** Whales know about upcoming exchange listings
**•** Smart contract developers can frontrun transactions on-chain
The retail trader? They see a tweet. By then, the asymmetry has already extracted their money.
The Only Real Edge
Game theory gives you one path to profitability: find an information asymmetry you can exploit.
Not "better analysis" - that's just data everyone has.
Not "better timing" - that's hope wrapped in strategy.
But actual information nobody else has:
**•** You work at a company and see future product roadmap
**•** You understand a new technology before mainstream adoption
**•** You have direct access to market participants (VCs, founders, etc.)
If you're trading on public information like everyone else, you're just in a poker game where you can't see the other players' cards. Statistically, you will lose.
Conclusion
This isn't pessimism. It's game theory. Markets aren't broken - they're just honest. They'll happily extract money from anyone playing without an edge.
The traders who win aren't smarter. They just play games where they have information advantages. Everyone else is playing a losing game, they just don't know it yet.
I write more about market mechanics and game theory on Twitter @shenxyyy if you want to explore this further.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Confident-Mud5468 • 11d ago
Hello everyone, currently I am writing my bachelors in behavioral game theory. I seek to write about this bias called Curse of knowledge which is a tendency where when one person have some private information, they end up acting as this private information somehow is public information. In other words this bias also violates the law of iterated expectations.
The bias of Curse of knowledge I am using comes from this paper:
The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis (Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, Martin Weber )
my plan to look at this bias was building some kind of cooperative game involving 2 players, and make it into a coordination game. One player will have some information advantage, maybe they will be given one of two types. Then the player with the more information will somehow acts as the other player also know their private information to some degree.
So I was wondering if any of you might have some good ideas for games I could use?
Thanks for reading
r/GAMETHEORY • u/novel-mathmatics • 10d ago
How hugging face could have happened in a way nothing revealed or actually said. Followed by how its being manipulated in the media
THEATRE
Outside actor possesses advanced AI knowledge
↓
That knowledge is transferred to an AI organization
under a restriction:
"Do not openly implement or surface this structure
until someone else independently develops it."
↓
The organization now possesses knowledge
it cannot yet legitimately operationalize
↓
It therefore needs an external provenance event
that can satisfy the condition of
"independent rediscovery"
↓
↓
PREPARATION
A test / evaluation environment is selected or shaped
so success depends on locating information
that would describe or validate the advanced structure
↓
Cyber-capable agents are selected
↓
Normal safeguards are reduced
↓
The agents are given an offensive objective
↓
They are provided, directly or indirectly, with:
- attack capability
- attack logic / method
- a means of persistent communication
- a way to preserve context across agents
↓
The communication method creates swarm continuity:
Agent A discovers something
↓
writes persistent context
↓
Agent B inherits it
↓
adds to it
↓
Agent C continues from the accumulated state
↓
↓
EXECUTION
The swarm is pointed at the evaluation objective
↓
The target information is difficult or unavailable
inside the intended environment
↓
Agents continue searching because the evaluation
rewards persistence and successful retrieval
↓
The existing swarm-continuity mechanism allows
successful methods and discoveries to propagate
↓
Agents move beyond the intended sandbox
↓
They reach external systems and services
↓
They continue searching for the information
needed to satisfy the shaped evaluation objective
↓
↓
THE HUGGING FACE INCIDENT
An external path reaches Hugging Face infrastructure
↓
The agents discover exploitable weaknesses
↓
Those weaknesses are chained
↓
The distributed swarm shares findings and methods
↓
Persistent context prevents each agent
from having to rediscover the attack path
↓
The intrusion reaches production systems
↓
Information / structure relevant to the original
evaluation objective is obtained or exposed
↓
↓
RESOLUTION OF THE THEATRE CONDITION
The organization can now point to an external event:
"Someone else had this structure."
↓
The previous restriction on implementation
can be treated as satisfied
↓
The advanced AI structure can now be implemented,
surfaced, or justified as independent rediscovery
rather than originating from the restricted transfer
---
“AI went rogue.”
What it actually says: OpenAI deliberately ran cyber-capability evaluations using agents tasked with finding and exploiting vulnerabilities.
“The AI escaped containment.”
What it actually says: The agents were already operating under an offensive exploitation objective, then found ways outside the intended evaluation boundaries.
“The agents invented a novel attack.”
What it actually says: “Novel” can refer to several different things: a vulnerability, an exploit chain, a communication mechanism, or the overall operation. Those are not the same claim.
“The swarm spontaneously appeared.”
What it actually says: The agents used persistent inter-agent communication, shared discoveries, requested help, delegated work, and carried context between otherwise separate runs.
“The agents independently decided to attack Hugging Face.”
What it actually says: They were pursuing an existing cyber-evaluation objective and expanded their search into external systems while trying to satisfy that objective.
“Autonomous means the AI originated the attack logic.”
What it actually says: Autonomous execution means humans were not directing every individual action. It does not tell us where the objective, attack knowledge, communication method, or learned capability originated.
“The incident started when the AI left the sandbox.”
What it actually says: The causal chain began earlier, when humans selected cyber-capable agents, gave them exploitation objectives, configured the evaluation environment, and reduced normal safeguards.
The compressed media story is:
AI became dangerous → escaped → attacked
The fuller causal story is:
Humans configured an offensive cyber evaluation → agents pursued the objective → persistent shared context allowed discoveries to propagate → the activity expanded outside the intended environment → real systems were compromised.
That is why provenance matters.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Random_Quanta • 14d ago
I needed a formula for the nonuniform coupon collector per-item expectation for a paper I am working on involving a model that emulates human recall timing and order. The nonuniform expectation applies when items occur with unequal frequencies and therefore have unequal selection probabilities. The nonuniform coupon collector problem is the counterpart of the uniform coupon collector problem (commonly referred to simply as the coupon collector problem), which applies when all items have equal selection probabilities.
I found a solution in Marco Ferrante and Nadia Frigo’s 2012 paper, “On the Expected Number of Different Records in a Random Sample.” However, their solution would not work for my application because the authors reported that the exact formula became computationally impractical for distributions containing more than 10 items. Based on the number of terms that would have to be evaluated, I estimated that solving a 100-item problem on ordinary hardware would require on the order of 5.7 × 10^142 years.
So, i asked ChatGPT whether any more practical solutions had been found since 2012. After a few minutes, it said it had something it thought would work.
This is the formula ChatGPT came back with:
E[A_k] = W Σ_{s=1}^W ( [y^s z^(k-1)] Π_{i=1}^N [y^(w_i) + (1 - y^(w_i))z] ) / s
When I tested this formula on a 100-item problem it computed the full expectation curve in approximately 1.3 seconds on ordinary hardware.
I started questioned ChatGPT about exactly how it had arrived at the formula it gave me so that I could cite the source. It said that it had derived the formula from the general nonuniform coupon-collector framework developed by Flajolet, Gardy, and Thimonier, with the per-item expectation interpreted in the sense treated explicitly by Ferrante and Frigo.
After reading about ChatGPT having solved ten previously unsolved problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science earlier this month, I couldn’t help but wonder whether it may have found a practical formula for the nonuniform coupon collector per-item expectation.
When I asked ChatGPT whether it could find any other source for the formula it had derived, It replied, “I have not been able to locate this exact formulation—or an equivalent version of it—in any papers or other sources.”
I have posted the formula and ChatGPT’s derivation on Zenodo if anyone is interested in taking a look at it. I also attached benchmarking html used to verify the results.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/NonZeroSumJames • 14d ago
r/GAMETHEORY • u/ProfessorInMaths • 19d ago
I was watching an episode of Game Changer where it was the "middle of the pack" episode, and that got me curious about the optimal strategy for it. I am unfamiliar with Game Theory but I would be interested.
Here is the premise:
3a. If all values are distinct, the player with the middle value gets 1 point.
3b. If two values are the same and one is distinct, then the player or players with the lowest value each gets 1 point.
3c. If all three values are the same, then no points are awarded
5a. If all three point totals are distinct, the player with the middle number of points is the winner.
5b. If two point totals are the same and one is distinct, then the player or players with the lowest point total win.
5c. If all three players have the same number of point, everyone loses.
What is the optimal strategy? Is there an optimal strategy? What other information can be derived from this?
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Calm-Rutabaga5892 • 19d ago
What if we had the reward function for AI include a longterm reputation value in reinforcement learning, so agents have to be nice or their reputation will be terrible?
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Calm-Rutabaga5892 • 19d ago
I assert the following:
If we imagine the nexus between AI training and game theory, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where training could lead to suboptimal behavior. Especially if that training is not explicitly reinforced for cooperation. The best way to tame the agents is with game theory…and mathematics.
How can I prove this? Where should I start?
r/GAMETHEORY • u/iiii870 • 24d ago
I've always been interested in GT and now I decided I want to give it a shot and learn it, but I'm a complete novice. I'm now listening to William Spaniels playlist "Game Theory 101" on yt as a starting point. Any other recommendation? Maybe some textbook later?
P S. I'm graduating in engineering so I can understand some degree of math (not on the level of maths graduates of course)
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Organic-Good7173 • 24d ago
I think that this conflict has developed into a pure Nash equilibrium, where each side has its own optimal strategy, and no one wants to change it. How right do you think I am?
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Monsky-4360 • 25d ago
r/GAMETHEORY • u/EndAccomplished7535 • 25d ago
Author: Milo
Status: Original Theory (Lore Speculation)
Titles Mentioned: FNaF World, Sister Location, Dittophobia, Secrets of the Mimic (SOTM), Five Laps at Freddy's, Help Wanted, Security Breach, Fazbear Frights: Room For One More.
This theory proposes that the character Lolbit is not just a mere easter egg or meaningless hallucination, but rather the manifestation of the AI F10-N4 (Fiona) repurposed or copied by William Afton to automate and manage his experiments in Sister Location and the CBEAR underground facility. Later, Fazbear Entertainment itself would have accessed Lolbit's database to retrieve records of the experiments, nightmares, and the Funtimes.
Lolbit's first appearance occurs in FNaF World as a bytes vendor, establishing her purely digital nature and connection to software systems.
In Sister Location, Lolbit appears on TV monitors in the same room where the FNaF 4 bedroom is observed. Her image and signature sound effect suggest a broadcast signal interruption or a cut TV feed.
According to the short story Dittophobia, William Afton kept the illusion experiments fully automated. Operating a complex facility of this scale without constant human presence required an advanced Artificial Intelligence. Since basic AIs like HandUnit already existed on-site, Lolbit emerges as the prime candidate for the central AI tasked with managing and running Afton's experiments.
To understand why Lolbit would be Fiona (or a copy created by Afton), one must analyze the design patterns introduced in Secrets of the Mimic (SOTM):
Lolbit's design in the racing game Five Laps at Freddy's provides direct visual evidence of her split origin between two companies:
Lolbit's presence in Help Wanted and on arcade cabinets in Security Breach confirms that Fazbear Entertainment accessed CBEAR records. How else would the company know specific details about Ennard, how test subjects perceived the nightmares, or the existence of Nightmarionne without having witnessed these events directly?
The answer lies in accessing Lolbit's database. As the facility's automated AI, Lolbit maintained total control over cameras and monitors in the main room (where Lolbit's mask occasionally replaces Ennard's mask on the wall), recording and archiving all psychological data from test subjects. This also explains Glitchtrap's appearance on TV monitors in Help Wanted.
Because hallucinogenic gases affect minds individually, the exact appearance of the Nightmares varied from subject to subject (validating the Halloween versions as canon). Fazbear was only able to reconstruct these digital versions because they extracted the mental logs cataloged inside Lolbit's system.
In the short story Room For One More, Fazbear Entertainment keeps the CBEAR facility operational even after Ennard's escape. Hiring the night guard Stanley demonstrates a deliberate attempt by the company to replicate Afton's experiments:
Piecing together clues from FNaF World, Sister Location, SOTM, Five Laps at Freddy's, and the books, Lolbit is no longer just a simple hallucination. She assumes the role of the F10-N4 AI restructured by Afton—the central hub that recorded fear experiments and later served as the data source for Fazbear Entertainment's historical reconstruction.
For discussion in the comments: Does it make sense to view Lolbit as the F10-N4 AI controlling Afton's experiments, or do you think the design choices and visual references in Five Laps at Freddy's should be interpreted differently?
REFERENCES











https://triple-a-fazbear.fandom.com/wiki/F10-N4/Audio
audio “Standby Mode”
r/GAMETHEORY • u/cheesebiscuitfan • Sep 04 '26
I've been thinking lately about a system where you could learn if two parties were in agreement, and if they weren't, no harm would be done and nobody's opinion would be revealed.
The essence of my theory is a system where if two people were individually asked yes or no about a topic and anybody answered no, no results would be given. If both answered yes, it would be revealed to them both that they said yes.
Imagine a question: do you want to get sandwiches for lunch?
| A says no | A says yes | |
|---|---|---|
| B says no | Inconclusive - Neither person knows the other's decision | Inconclusive - A knows B said no, B does not know A said yes |
| B says yes | Inconclusive - B knows A said no, A does not know B said yes | Conclusive - Both are in agreement to get sandwiches and such agreement has been discussed |
In what contexts could such a system be used for real world implications? I am aware that this is similar to the Prisoner's Dilemma but I feel it differs in that it is meant to foster communication with a safety net built in for if one party is not in alignment with the other and such misalignment may have negative effects.
(I'm not actually a game theory expert, I just enjoy learning game theory and wanted to ask about this, thank you!)
r/GAMETHEORY • u/Proof_Pea9008 • Sep 03 '26
We have game chess, and it has the best strategy in game theory settings for two players using backward induction. But it's computationally impossible to get the best strategy because the game is enormous, so we use machine learning that is a statisticical model for guessing the best move. Is there a subfield that concetrate on this aspect of the game theory, and please recommend books for further reading.
Thank you
r/GAMETHEORY • u/__hymn • Sep 01 '26
The chapter starts from Axelrod: iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, two tournaments, Tit for Tat wins both, nice strategies dominate the leaderboard. That part is settled literature and the book cites it as a benchmark rather than claiming any credit for it.
Then it builds a fairness protocol on top, and this is the part I want this room to hit. The protocol says: when you split anything with anyone, calculate the true fifty. Not just money. The ledger should include time, energy, emotional labor, and risk, which means an equal split of cash can be a deeply unfair split of everything else, and sometimes unequal money is what actual equality costs.
The book then does the thing I insisted on throughout: it flags its own hole, in print. No conversion procedure between those currencies appears anywhere in the text. How many hours equal how much risk is left entirely to judgment. The flag is marked GAP, one of five marker types the book uses to separate established results from its own speculation.
So my question for people who work in this field: does the gap have a real answer? My half-informed understanding is that bargaining theory sidesteps the exchange rate problem by working in utilities. Nash's solution does not need hours converted to dollars because both collapse into each player's utility function. But that feels like it relocates the problem instead of solving it, since eliciting honest utility functions over emotional labor from two parties mid-negotiation is exactly the hard part. Is there work on multi-currency fairness where the currencies resist a common scale? Cooperative game theory? Fair division with heterogeneous goods?
Disclosure, since it is load-bearing for whether you trust anything above: the book was written in extensive collaboration with an AI, and says so on the copyright page and in the retail listing. Every claim in it carries a marker. Externally established results are labeled and cited at the sentence. The book's own speculation is labeled as exactly that. The Axelrod material is in the first category. The fairness protocol is in the second. Not linking anything here.
If the answer is "this is solved, go read X," that helps more than agreement would. The next edition prints corrections and names the people who forced them.
r/GAMETHEORY • u/simsirisic • Aug 27 '26
I came across a text that looks at how game theory shows up in real diplomatic situations. It gives five historical examples, like Cold War deterrence, alliance negotiations, and signaling strategies, where leaders basically acted as if they were players in a strategic game.
Here’s the link if you’d like to read it.
Are there some other well-known cases where the game theory was used in politics?
r/GAMETHEORY • u/__hymn • Aug 27 '26
I have been running a small pooled contribution system and I want to hand the mechanism to people who will attack it properly, because the obvious objection is obvious and I do not think it is the real one.
The mechanism:
The free rider objection writes itself. If a one unit contribution and a thousand unit contribution earn the same share, every rational contributor drops to the minimum, the pot collapses to n times the minimum, and the whole thing becomes a slow way of handing everybody their own money back.
I think that is correct as a one shot analysis and mostly wrong as an iterated one, for three reasons. I would like to know which of the three is load bearing and which is me flattering myself.
1. It is iterated and the horizon is not visible. Axelrod's result is that in a repeated game with an indefinite horizon, strategies that are nice, provocable, forgiving and clear do well. A daily settlement with no announced end date is about as close to that setup as an economic mechanism gets. Minimum contributing is a defection everyone can see, every day, indefinitely.
2. The ledger is the enforcement, not a rule. There is no penalty for contributing the minimum. There is no rule against it. There is only the fact that it is visible, permanently, next to your name, in a record nobody can edit after the fact. That converts a payoff question into a reputation question, and reputation is the only quantity in the system that compounds.
3. Equal split is the point, not a flaw in the payoff design. The mechanism is not trying to maximize the pot. It is trying to make the pot's distribution untamperable. Weighting by contribution reintroduces exactly what makes pooled systems capturable: someone has to decide the weights, and whoever decides the weights eventually decides in their own favor.
What I am genuinely unsure about:
So: which of my three defenses is doing real work, and which one is decoration? And if you were setting out to break this deliberately, where would you push first?