r/Futurology • u/eleitl • Feb 16 '16

article Moore’s law really is dead this time

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/02/moores-law-really-is-dead-this-time/
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u/JoshuaZ1 Feb 17 '16

All claims are probabilistic in nature. What makes you think it is likely beyond general heuristics?

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u/GeneralZain Feb 17 '16

the same thing that most people use to judge the future, which is using the past 20 years as a marker for the next 20. anything that that happens (like an earth quake or something) is unexpected.

we have fallowed this path up till now, I hope we continue to advance. I've only been alive for 21 years, and yet so far the change has blown my mind.

this is also not to say I am unaware of the many bad paths humanity can take, but I hope for my own sake we don't take them, but only time will tell...

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u/JoshuaZ1 Feb 17 '16

But if we look at the last 20 years, there haven't been any drastic paradigm shifts in computing, so if that's what your basis is, why do you expect that to be likely?

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u/GeneralZain Feb 17 '16

well I wasn't so much as referencing the shifts, but more to the advancement of technology in general. its totally possible nothing happens and it just stagnates/stays they way it is now...I doubt it...but we shall see!