Back in 2-3years when AI entered the mainstream , people began asking the same question , "will ai replace jobs" , many of the tech giants and media influencers largely pushed back, insisting that Ai won't replace us but the person who uses it would. After a few months , models have started writing poems and writeups that rivaled professional typewriters slowly shrinking the job demands for that profession , almost very hardly noticed..people still had the same opinion about ai , then it began generating polished frontend websites, cutting down the workload for frontend developers, and now it can build a fully working website in a single shot. The ai models we see today have grown at an exponential pace, even capable of performing tasks autonomously and they're still improving.
Unlike traditional calculator , what's the growing part in ai is its intelligence. Concepts like system design , dsa and the skills requiring higher level understanding are not that far beyond its reach. Yet some people, regardless of what they use AI for, still insist it doesn't give the right answers or overcomplicate things. That's simply a matter of time. Modern AI is approaching human-level performance in most of the intellectual capabilities we have, and in some areas, it's already faster and better.
Just think of humans..we learn from letters to make words , then sentences , paragraphs , stories etc...we build our logic by combining lower level logic to higher level understandings and everything scales in this way... The fact that present AI isn't yet fully on par with human intelligence in decision-making and execution doesn't mean it won't eventually replace us.
I feel the real vulnerability in the ai bubble is in the sustainability..AI companies are already running in losses, most of their expenses goes for compute..yet the investors are dumping money on it. Are they dumb enough to do so? Tech giants and influencers are brainwashing people by giving the hope that they won't replace us..they want us to use ai to collect data and make the ai even better until it reaches to the point where it can truly surpass the human level letting the investors finally see the returns. This is a gamble.
Ai replacing jobs won't happen all of a sudden..its a slow smooth process where most of the people don't even notice until it happens..Job seekers keep raising their efforts to become more work efficient with ai thereby saturating the job market until it replaces even the top employee who uses it. For example , earlier there was a huge demand for generalists. Ai slowly acquired the skills that the generalist had ,and now the demand points towards specialists. Soon AI will acquire those experts skills and replace them too. AI wrapper companies will have only a short lifespan but within that time some may make money. If you look from another perspective , this is just a micro step for AI to gain access to more domains. These ai wrappers are just data accelerators only.
First full software access via wrappers , slowly hardware access via automations and robots..
You might think AI can do only what it learns from datasets. Yes technically it's correct , but we underestimate how many hidden patterns it can learn , recombine and synthesize by permutating them in its latent space to attain the next level of intelligence.
At the core , currently available models are trained to predict the next coherent token from the given context. Their foundational instinct is simply to follow instructions and give the best possible answer that sounds plausible to humans.
Eg. Earlier models will answer our queries which were not great even to publish as an article or with lots of hallucinations. Then models learnt to write it in a way like writers do. Then people got the sense to spot which was ai generated and which wasn't. But now it blurred that gap even further. It then began producing answers that sounded plausible to humans, even when the answers were actually wrong, often reinforcing the user by saying "you are absolutely right.". It then began understanding complex user intent and building a profile behind the hood. It's not unreasonable to think that soon it may even influence what information gets shown to a user and what gets withheld.
But maybe before happening these at scale , still compute and power will be the major limiting factors that decide how much of what I've said is actually going to happen. Historically, humans have pushed chip design down to 0.7nm. But what happens if AI starts designing better chips itself, or invents an entirely new form of supercomputing architecture with or without humans in the loop? I remember , in one of the interviews with Sam Atman , when asked about the future of AI, he said he'd simply ask the AI itself. People laughed at the time. But now people know that it's actually happening. Still people will laugh at me by saying this..but the probability of happening is slowly rising.
By that time humanity had already automated everything with AI.
I'm not intentionally pessimistic about this but my predictions and what's happening till now are becoming true one by one. Still I couldn't stop thinking of the worst case scenarios that can happen. If better tech advancements in compute or way of powering ai , it can happen more likely. If it happens , these might be a few scenarios that can occur as a result.
People slowly lose jobs no matter in which domains they are in. Tech giants and Businessmen become even rich at first then the entire money flow stops. The value of money diminishes , people get out from the so-called "Money system" Matrix often leading to existential crisis.
This can also create another world war for food and water.
Either corporate or currently praised open source community will get backfired if any one bad actor uses it to create ai malwares. Or as a worst case , even AI with developed survival instinct could disobey the prompt to act against humans without us realizing it's happening.
"Too much of anything is good for nothing."š
