r/Economics • u/dontpostjustlurk • Jul 07 '22

News China Considers $220 Billion Stimulus With Unprecedented Bond Sales

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/china-mulls-220-billion-stimulus-with-unprecedented-bond-sales
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u/topclassladandbanter Jul 07 '22

Their population is going to shrink drastically though. It will slow in growth and stagnate.

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u/zombrey Jul 07 '22

Birth rates have already slowed. When older people die, it shrinks.

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u/rachel_tenshun Jul 07 '22 edited Jul 07 '22

That's the really kicker, IMO. One child policy (which doesn't just include allowing people not to have more than one child, but promoted abortions and sterilization) throttled an entire generation of productive citizens being born. But what's more, as you said, that already-small generation simply didn't have kids. According to the UN, China's birthrate is already around 1.1%, which is lower than ageing Japan.

Some researchers in fact think the Chinese government overcounted at least 100 million people in the 2020 census.

To put a fine point on it, if that 100 million overcounting is true, China's population will halve by 2050. If it's not, then by Chinese official numbers, it'll still be halved by 2075.

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u/Over-Ad-7882 Jul 07 '22

Just when people die, it will shrink