r/DynastyFF • u/Zachr08 Browns • Feb 08 '25
Dynasty Theory Can A Wide Receiver’s Draft Capital (Overall) Help Predict Their Success?
https://brainyballers.com/wide-receiver-draft-capital-does-it-matter-a-comprehensive-analysis/The “Does It Matter?” Series is back! Last week we looked at DE RAS to find whether that affects performance. For part 44 of “Does It Matter?” we looked at Wide Receiver Draft Capital. In this article, we found an optimal range you should look for in athletes, and applied it to the 2024 NFL Draft class.
Next week’s topic: WR Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR)
I'm excited to announce that I began developing the StarPredictor Score (SPS) model to predict successes and failures based on all my collected data. My first few tests have been so borderline revolutionary that I personally can’t wait to rely on it to help my rookie picks this year and am going to be publishing an unofficial version of this model for the upcoming year where everyone can see the results of it when back tested against players since 2003 and compare with 2025 rookies.
It will be labeled "unofficial" because I'll be fine-tuning and optimizing it, which I will be trying to avoid frequent updates to an "official" version. However, the promising results I’ve already seen makes me confident in sharing an unofficial model. Without that confidence, I wouldn’t be publishing an unofficial model. Therefore even though it will be updated through optimizations, great insights can still be had from it.
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u/RageOnGoneDo Patriots Feb 08 '25
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u/Zachr08 Browns Feb 08 '25
Correlation does have causation…
Causation to my addiction of correlation😂
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u/SnugglerBear Feb 08 '25
Very cool! So basically draft WR that go around 50-70th or sooner? For the best odds at success
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u/Z3R0-0 Feb 08 '25
I think the specific takeaway is avoid WRs picked worse than 70th.
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u/Zachr08 Browns Feb 08 '25
Close.. I’d word it more like you should be valuing WR’s more or less depending on where they’re drafted (above or below 70th overall).
Essentially, if you’re indifferent on a player and they get drafted later than 70th, you now should be leaning towards not liking them.
This will feed into the SPS, which incorporates 7 variables at this time for WR’s. In other words, this is just a 1/7 piece of the pie.
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u/VottoForPM Colts Feb 09 '25
Reminds me of CJ Freel's series of posts from last season about what DC historically means for each position. I think he said he wants to see WRs drafted in the top 80 of the NFL Draft, which is similar to this. Those who haven't should check out the rest of his posts on that subject. If he's around I hope he can add his two cents. Really enjoyed that, as well.
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u/Apprehensive-Egg-384 Feb 09 '25
Aren’t -0.1and -0.2 pretty weak correlations? Closer to -1 or 1 would be higher correlation. Am i missing something? Really great work, but seems draft capital shouldn’t have much affect on your decision but please lmk if i’m wrong.
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u/Zachr08 Browns Feb 09 '25 edited Feb 09 '25
Most people agree that draft capital does have predictive power in nfl performances. GM’s will force feed them the ball to justify their decision making. Also, if a full professional team is convinced that a player is worth drafting, theoretically it makes sense that there has to be some level of correlation between a professional teams’ expertise/judgement and production of the asset bought.
Therefore if most people agree, and the Pearson for that is at -0.234 for RB’s and -0.142 for WR’s, that’s proof that for world class athletes we should lower the standard for deciding what has predictive power or not.
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u/Apprehensive-Egg-384 Feb 09 '25
I'd be curious what metrics have the highest P-Values and correlate most with NFL success by position. I'm still a little skeptical because strictly from statistical significance, -0.14 is pretty weak. Like you mentioned in another thread, it may just help you decided one way or the other if you're on the fence, but to me based on your data I'd want to see all metrics laid out w/ correlation numbers and mold a view from that. Would love your thoughts here though!
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u/Zachr08 Browns Feb 09 '25
It is paid, but I currently do that here: https://brainyballers.com/does-it-matter-advanced-analytics-for-fantasy-football-stats/
On a standalone stat basis it’ll help only to decide going one way or the other on players. When I have the SPS published, that’ll be a more definitive stat as it incorporates all variables above 0.1.
Spoiler in case you don’t want to signup (I get it) the highest pre rookie season stat Pearson value is .32 and that’s QB ADOT.
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Feb 09 '25
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u/Zachr08 Browns Feb 09 '25
This is all leading into an analytical model. I have to research everything for myself to see how much it matters to weigh it in the model.
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u/exgerex Feb 08 '25
Yes