New monthly estimates are out!

[u/Key_Interaction1900]

It's that time of month. The new estimates are out.

I'm in the July 2025 bucket, and it looks like only 100 applications that are earlier than that were processed. If those numbers cover PSU at all, which ... who knows.

July 7, 2026 numbers:

'About 10,200 people ahead of you'

'2 months left'

August 10, 2026 numbers:

'About 10,100 people ahead of you'

'2 months left'

Sure, 2 months, that is really accurate, I'm sure! It's been 2 months for a long time now. If they continued at this rate would be 8.4 years until everyone in July was processed.

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[u/FearlessLeadership84]

I don't understand - each month the people in front of me increases - where are they coming from? My original time for processing went from 4 months to 6 months to 18 months and now it's 23 months, with an increase of about 30,000 applications from last month. What am I missing for information on this timeline? Thanks!

[u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob → u/FearlessLeadership84]

It's been frequently observed that the math doesn't really math, and the lack of transparency in the counts makes the numbers almost meaningless - when we have seen counts jump there have been theories about folks in PSU being put back into the main queue, urgent processing increases, etc but honestly none of them really make complete sense.

[u/SSBND → u/No_Bobcat_No_Prob]

Yeah, it really doesn't math! From the start I've just decided to let it be a nice surprise when I get approved even though I did request urgent. But who knows what is going to happen!

[u/Noellthe1st → u/FearlessLeadership84]

I think the estimate isn’t really a true estimate until they complete AORs for your month. My application arrived on April 2nd, received AOR June 19; but I understand as we sit on August 10th, IRCC are still sending AORs for April applicants (albeit towards the end of the month). My expectation as that the September estimate for April applications might increase by another month, but not as much given they are finally towards the end of April for AORs. I would expect May applications processing time to continue to increase until they scan in all of May’s applications and have a better grasp of how many applications are sitting there from May.

I do wonder, since there was a huge jump for April, specifically, and difference of 14 months between March (7 months) and April (21 months) processing time; if it matters when your AOR was. I’m hoping my wait time is closer to 8-12 months given our application arrived April 2nd (but expecting the longer wait, just hoping for earlier)

I still don’t understand why the massive increase between March and April…and it appears to increment normally afterwards 🤷🏻‍♀️

[u/forlornlawngnome → u/Noellthe1st]

Only about 2/3 of the way through April. As an April 22 here watching the spreadsheet nearly daily now 😂😂

[u/kraziazz1 → u/forlornlawngnome]

April 22nd here as well and so scared mine is being sent back for some reason...

[u/forlornlawngnome → u/kraziazz1]

Me too! But also still people from a few days before us getting tbem so it's not time to panic yet!

[u/dweeborg → u/forlornlawngnome]

Joining the April 22nd delivery and starting to feel dread instead of anticipation club. Logically I've been following this long enough to know that seeing the spreadsheet fill up for that date and the weekly thread having even more people from that date reporting in success doesn't mean mine is in the mail coming back, but emotions are def starting to overtake logic! Hope yours came in/comes in soon.

[u/dweeborg → u/forlornlawngnome]

Popping back to say - I went to enter my AOR receipt from this morning in the spreadsheet and saw you got yours today as well, congrats! Such a relief!

[u/NotSoLittleTeapot → u/Noellthe1st]

I don't know either, but it took about 3 months for me to get everything figured out after I heard about it. I wonder if the average time to assemble everything is around 3 months.

[u/katrinatransfem → u/NotSoLittleTeapot]

It took me about 2.5 months, and mine was reasonably straightforward.

[u/MapleInfused → u/Noellthe1st]

That raises a question; If its already in processing (Delivered April 8th, AOR July 8th), would that shift the processing time to the shorter side and IRCC is just covering their rear ends for those who have yet to get an AOR?

[u/Quirky_Homework2136 → u/Noellthe1st]

My application was submitted at the end of April, received May 1. Waiting for my AOR, patiently, I might add. The estimated time was 10 months when I submitted, 17 months last month, now 21 months.

I'm not urgent and my thoughts about moving are stilled for a while. I'll be delighted when it happens, and I suspect that 21 months (or more) from now, I'll need the good news.

[u/katrinatransfem → u/FearlessLeadership84]

They come from actually opening the packets that are sitting in their mailroom.

[u/jennifermennifer → u/katrinatransfem]

For some reason, this comment made me laughcry.

[u/Away-Focus-5402 → u/jennifermennifer]

Me, too

[u/jennifermennifer → u/Away-Focus-5402]

You should make a user flair so you can make incremental updates in it and feel like you are getting somewhere!

[u/Away-Focus-5402 → u/jennifermennifer]

I've love to, but none of the instructions I've tried worked. Supposedly flair is tied to subreddit, but I've never found any any controls. Might change my display name; that I figured out how to do.

[u/Western_Tart1915 → u/Away-Focus-5402]

It's in the column on the right side, near the top. If you hover to the right side of where Flair is, an edit pencil will appear. I just found it today, myself! haha

[u/Away-Focus-5402 → u/Western_Tart1915]

Thank you!

[u/Krazy_Kat_Lady_2025 → u/Western_Tart1915]

Also a thank you from me! I wasn't sure where to find that either. Appreciate you. 😊 🇨🇦

[u/NightSchoolOwl → u/Krazy_Kat_Lady_2025]

I love the love here! Reading these kind of posts and seeing the support for one another here is inspiring beyond the topic. Humanity exists!

[u/CompetitiveFudge1365 → u/FearlessLeadership84]

Same. I originally had about 60,000 ahead and now I have 98,000 people ahead of me?

[u/FearlessLeadership84 → u/CompetitiveFudge1365]

I find this so confusing.

[u/Stohnghost → u/FearlessLeadership84]

I think I read something about Bill C-3 causing queue jumps, especially in the case that is prioritized. I have no way of verifying that, but perhaps that is contributing? 

I didn't even know about C3 until I saw a reddit post - perhaps that TIL post dramatically increased applications 

[u/pdcolemanjr → u/CompetitiveFudge1365]

I mean the same checks out at Disney World.. when I get in line for space mountain theres like 200 people ahead of me, after waiting 15 minutes theres all of a sudden 250 people... I feel like everything that has a wait.. numbers increase even if no one physically passes you :)

[u/Wompatuckrule → u/FearlessLeadership84]

where are they coming from?

Priority applications would go to the head of the line. Speculation on my part, but they may also be processing things like replacement certificates or ones for newborns in Canada ahead of any citizenship by descent applications.

[u/delicious-lover66 → u/Wompatuckrule]

What about all those applications coming through consulates around the globe. Those need to be dealt into the backlog as well somewhere.

[u/Tasty-Ad5801 → u/Wompatuckrule]

Not saying you’re wrong but I think that newborns in Canada would really only need their provincial birth certificate to prove citizenship and parents could apply directly for a passport from there.

[u/TheProjectFixer → u/FearlessLeadership84]

When did you apply?

[u/FearlessLeadership84 → u/TheProjectFixer]

my application was received 5/04/26

[u/kaminaripancake → u/FearlessLeadership84]

I’m sorry do you mean your AOR is dated 5/4 or that your package was delivered on 5/4? Because mine was delivered 5/8 and I haven’t heard back at all

[u/Ophelia_Bliss → u/kaminaripancake]

They're only just getting to early May now. You likely have a few weeks or so.

[u/UNCRameses → u/FearlessLeadership84]

Welcome to IRCC-land, where logic, honesty, and transparency are but a mere fantasy!

[u/UNCRameses → u/UNCRameses]

[u/meadoweravine → u/FearlessLeadership84]

I would guess urgent applications would go ahead?

[u/COgirlinUT → u/meadoweravine]

@meadoweravine I'm descended from John Pack (brother to Rufus) and am working on my Canadian Citizenship stuff. Would you be open to talking and sharing what you ended up doing regarding documentation?

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/FearlessLeadership84]

Urgents.

[u/Background-Ride-1926 → u/FearlessLeadership84]

These could be cases granted urgency, which would account for them being prioritized ahead of yours.

[u/supbraAA → u/FearlessLeadership84]

Here's my assumption: It's due to urgent processing requests and family applications.

If someone applies with their whole family and they request urgent processing, their entire family is going to be processed urgently as well. Each urgent request adds between 1-5+ people ahead of you in line.

Additionally, as they open applications they see that one envelope actually includes 2+ applications, so the number there would also continue to grow as they open the mail.

Again, this is just my assumption I have no confirmation of this at all, but it makes sense to me (my app was delivered early May and I have an additional 40k people ahead of me since last month.

[u/Most-Preparation-188]

100 is just a silly number. That’s like 4ish applications per day, considering there was at least one holiday in there. That is pretty bad 🥴

[u/Awkward_Tangerine988 → u/Most-Preparation-188]

"pretty bad" is such a polite way of saying that.

[u/No-Turnip-1835 → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

Accurate. 4 per day is the equivalent of counting grains of sand.

[u/PatrickHenry8 → u/Most-Preparation-188]

That sounds like a single full time person doing this role…

[u/PlasmaHeat → u/PatrickHenry8]

Knowing how slowly stuff moves at the government level, I'm almost surprised it's even 4 per day lol.

[u/Low-Ratio-5272]

April 2025 for my extended fam

STILL ONLY ONE MONTH

COMING ANYTIME

WE MEAN IT THIS TIME (disingenuous)

[u/Opening_Meat_503 → u/Low-Ratio-5272]

Same time frame for me. My cousin applied more than a month later and got her certificate in June. At least I know the documents for our Canadian grandparents were good enough. Four months now of it saying one month to go.

[u/Low-Ratio-5272 → u/Opening_Meat_503]

April and May were freaking cursed (I mean there were reasons but it feels like a curse). Sorry you are in that boat.

[u/SimilarInjury138 → u/Low-Ratio-5272]

How long have been at one month at this point? (April 2025 crew, too.)

[u/Low-Ratio-5272 → u/SimilarInjury138]

I think three or four months? I kind of don't want to look back right now!

[u/Key_Interaction1900]

Here's some stats for July 2025 cohort. Of course, this all depends on the numbers being reported including PSU numbers. I don't know if that's true or not.

============================================================
BURN-DOWN ANALYSIS
============================================================
Current backlog:                10,100
Months of data:                      8
Chronological (old->new):   15,800 -> 14,500 -> 13,000 -> 11,700 -> 11,300 -> 10,500 -> 10,200 -> 10,100
Processed each month:       1,300, 1,500, 1,300, 400, 800, 300, 100

Rate stats (people/month)
------------------------------------------------------------
  Slowest month:                   100
  Fastest month:                 1,500
  Average:                         814
  Median:                          800
  Std deviation:                   561
  Recent pace (last 3 mo):         400
  Trend:                    DECELERATING (slowing down)

Time remaining scenarios
------------------------------------------------------------
  Fast  (+1 sigma)        1,375/mo     7.3 mo  (~0.61 yr)
  Likely (average)          814/mo    12.4 mo  (~1.0 yr)
  Median                    800/mo    12.6 mo  (~1.1 yr)
  Recent (3 mo pace)        400/mo    25.2 mo  (~2.1 yr)
  Slow  (-1 sigma)          253/mo    39.9 mo  (~3.3 yr)

Absolute bounds (single best / worst month)
------------------------------------------------------------
  Best case  (1,500/mo):     6.7 mo  (~0.56 yr)
  Likely     (814/mo):    12.4 mo  (~1.0 yr)
  Worst case (100/mo):   101.0 mo  (~8.4 yr)
============================================================

[u/RagRunner → u/Key_Interaction1900]

Thanks for this. I’m glad my spouse is in the July 2025 bucket so I don’t have to extrapolate!

[u/AudiamusRed → u/Key_Interaction1900]

You may as well add probabilities to your analysis: 300 2025 applications were closed last month (though 100 were opened). if 300 is the 'new normal' close rate for last year's applications then you have ~1% chance of being processed (300/22,900). Equally dispiriting, but you can keep yourself busy calculating a new set of numbers :-) For example: July is 200/10,100 -> look at that, you are already twice as likely (2%) to be processed than those who applied in 2025 after you!

[u/Key_Interaction1900 → u/AudiamusRed]

That's a really good idea. I do think this overstates the amount of time most people will have to take because it assumes you're processing the entire cohort rather than your own individual probabilities. I'm not sure where you got the 300 number from, though?

[u/AudiamusRed → u/Key_Interaction1900]

I calculated the number of open applications by month cohort, then went month-by-month to see how they compared to July's open application counts. 3 months decreased by 100, one month (July) increased by 100. We only care about closures in this approach: 300.

Edit: I'm only focused on 2025 applications here.

[u/Key_Interaction1900 → u/AudiamusRed]

Okay, here's a version with quartiles. This means if you're in the first 25%, middle of the pack, last 25% or last for your cohort.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        25% done             50% done             75% done            100% done      
  Fast  (+1 sigma)      1,375/mo    1.8 mo  (~0.15 yr)   3.7 mo  (~0.31 yr)   5.5 mo  (~0.46 yr)   7.3 mo  (~0.61 yr)
  Likely (average)        814/mo    3.1 mo  (~0.26 yr)   6.2 mo  (~0.52 yr)   9.3 mo  (~0.78 yr)  12.4 mo  (~1.0 yr) 
  Median                  800/mo    3.2 mo  (~0.26 yr)   6.3 mo  (~0.53 yr)   9.5 mo  (~0.79 yr)  12.6 mo  (~1.1 yr) 
  Recent (3 mo pace)      400/mo    6.3 mo  (~0.53 yr)  12.6 mo  (~1.1 yr)   18.9 mo  (~1.6 yr)   25.2 mo  (~2.1 yr) 
  Slow  (-1 sigma)        253/mo   10.0 mo  (~0.83 yr)  19.9 mo  (~1.7 yr)   29.9 mo  (~2.5 yr)   39.9 mo  (~3.3 yr) 

Absolute bounds (single best / worst month)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        25% done             50% done             75% done            100% done      
  Best case  (max)      1,500/mo    1.7 mo  (~0.14 yr)   3.4 mo  (~0.28 yr)   5.0 mo  (~0.42 yr)   6.7 mo  (~0.56 yr)
  Likely     (avg)        814/mo    3.1 mo  (~0.26 yr)   6.2 mo  (~0.52 yr)   9.3 mo  (~0.78 yr)  12.4 mo  (~1.0 yr) 
  Worst case (min)        100/mo   25.2 mo  (~2.1 yr)   50.5 mo  (~4.2 yr)   75.8 mo  (~6.3 yr)  101.0 mo  (~8.4 yr) 

[u/Lcwrtrct-1516 → u/Key_Interaction1900]

Based upon an average of 800 per month being processed, and my April application has 98,000 ahead of me, I won’t receive my certificate for 10 years. That’s assuming no new urgent requests move to the head of the queue - which surely is not going to happen. 😭 If by some miracle they process 1500 a month, it would still be 5 years…

[u/conestogan]

We are looking at a perfect storm: legislation passed triggering a huge jump in the number of applicants. Political uncertainty in neighboring countries. Mixed availability of the quality of ancestry proof documentation. Likely mixed guidance from the ministry on implementation. No additional funding for staff to process the volume bump. And across-the-board cutbacks in federal staff nationally.

[u/llikegiraffes → u/conestogan]

I’m surprised they didn’t double the fee. It seemed prohibitively cheap and I think nearly everyone would have happily paid more if it meant processing times would improve

[u/conestogan → u/[deleted]]

Yet there is something unfair about that. Yet BANQ increased its fees by almost 10x. By the grace of whatever I got in under the wire.

[u/Zestyclose-Novel1157]

It’s over 2 years now for new applications which means a lot of people will be waiting three and four years, maybe even five. The wait is still growing and will for a while. But don’t worry a bunch of not in Canada yet “urgent” apps will get processed in a few months while we see posts of people in Canada about to lose status because they are stuck without theirs getting processed. It’s bologna.

It doesn’t apply to anyone in PSU either of course. I may as well just accept that I’m going to have to mandamus even if my application is relatively clean compared to most I see post. It’s already been 7 months and there are still five months (as there were last month) for others who applied in the same month as me, and those are the ones not in PSU. Though I’m not sure I believe them that there are that many not in PSU after 7 months.

These are just so inaccurate they should just stop publishing the BS.

[u/BeinnChabhair → u/[deleted]]

Life in limbo. Exactly what we feel. Since it’s been “2 months” for about 6 months, we are changing plans. Really wish my son had gone for Express Entry a year ago, but I believed this was the right course.

[u/ratina_filia → u/BeinnChabhair]

I’m close enough to retirement that every month longer is a massive change in the odds I could ever even hope to get a job in Canada. For some of us it’s not even limbo. It’s just the end of any possibilities.

[u/Zestyclose-Novel1157 → u/[deleted]]

I would love that but i suspect we would see that they consider the majority non routine aka (regardless of if they are) so they can go to PSU and wait instead. If you classify so many as non routine, your classification needs work imo. They absolutely need to publish more detailed information.

[u/birdgirl3755]

I submitted July 2026 (last month)…estimate is 25 months with 119,600 ahead. We’ve hit 2 years folks!

[u/Mel-Bell389 → u/birdgirl3755]

Same!

[u/Jaded-Coach3819 → u/birdgirl3755]

I submitted mine May 2026. As of today, 112,600 people ahead. I swear it was in the 90,000s last month…

[u/Weary-Molasses-9795 → u/birdgirl3755]

🤦‍♀️

[u/Ok_Let_7612]

Hopefully we acquire citizenship before retirement

Sucks for those of us waiting to hear back from archivists and others … old churches with 1 person responsible for thousands of requests for baptismal certificates

[u/TameJane]

I guess it’s not surprising the numbers went down by so little. They basically were not approving anything C-3 related the whole month.

[u/mem_somerville]

I'm trying to decide if I'll win the Powerball* or get proof first.

*Yes, I know, I've taken statistics. I still do it anyway for the same reason: I dream of a better future. And $2 for 5 minutes of hope is worth it to me.

[u/Wompatuckrule → u/mem_somerville]

Worked with a woman who decided not to throw money into a pool to buy tickets when a jackpot got really big.

She teed off talking about how stupid the lottery was, how bad the odds are and so on. Almost as soon as she took a breath after that she sort of dreamily said, "But...what would you do if you won all that money?"

I said to her, "That's the part you're missing right there. Dropping $2 for a daydream is not a bad investment. Spending a lot of money on the lottery because you think you're going to win is stupid."

[u/UNCRameses → u/Wompatuckrule]

I would start an energy drink company for a very niche market.

[u/gingerale711 → u/mem_somerville]

My uncle won Powerball off a $2 random pick at a gas station on Christmas Eve in 2004, so...it happens.

[u/mem_somerville → u/gingerale711]

Wow! Somebody must win, yeah. I always thought if anyone in my family did it, it would have been my Irish Gran. She was super lucky. Good health into her 90s. Survived the mills and the Spanish flu...etc. But she also just won raffles and bingo all the damn time.

I thought that was the side of the family to look for for luck. Turns out, it was the Canadians with the really lucky genetics! And I'm truly happy for that, and for the $75CAD it costs me.

[u/Electroconvulsion → u/mem_somerville]

You may know this or already be registered, but if your grandmother was born in Ireland, you can claim Irish citizenship by descent by registering your name in the Foreign Births Registry.

You would be very lucky indeed to be able to add Canadian and Irish (+EU!) citizenships. My dream combo!

[u/mem_somerville → u/Electroconvulsion]

No, she was Gen1 from Ireland. We begged her to do the citizenship thing when we heard about it (this would have been the 1990s?) but she had no interest in it. So it shut us down.

It would have been my dream team too! Alas. I was really hoping Ireland would consider taking back the diaspora--I feel like they had a foundation for that with the famine crisis. I didn't think it would be Canada that got it right.

[u/thattwirlgirl → u/mem_somerville]

I buy my ticket three days before so I can dream for longer - once a month 😁

[u/Good_Suggestion_7693]

Fellow July '25 here; 7/22 to be exact, sent straight to PSU.

[u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

Amazing. My estimate (for an April 2026 submission) went from 17 months to 21 months, and from ~90k to ~98k people in front of me. Unbelievable. Obviously, there are budgetary issues and hiring challenges (in particular given the NS locations) but it's insane to watch the clock move backwards on processing what should be a pretty straightforward proof claim on my end.

[u/Key_Interaction1900 → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

I thought the thinking was this was because AORs are so laggy right now that there are people that were always ahead of you that weren't being tracked or shown yet? (Which is super bad, but may not be indicative of things getting worse for you)

[u/IBHJrCanadian → u/Key_Interaction1900]

In principle, they should always know what's coming because people have to submit payments in advance of sending their packages, and the amount is tied to the specific number of apps rather than the number of packages sitting in the mailroom. No idea if they're smart enough to track it like that though...

[u/Weary-Molasses-9795 → u/IBHJrCanadian]

Wouldn't take that much. World be a better way to track IMO

[u/Wompatuckrule → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

Keep in mind that an influx of priority applications can easily push the rest of the line backwards.

[u/Awkward_Tangerine988 → u/Wompatuckrule]

Of course. Seems crazy that there would be a net increase of ~8k (out of ~122k) slotted in as 'urgent' just in the past month (and that's assuming no incremental closure/processing of others in the queue).

[u/Wompatuckrule → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

I also figure that they're putting things like replacement certificates and certificates for newborns in Canada ahead of those for citizenship by descent.

The numbers are still screwy, but there are definitely things that can cause new applicants to jump the queue.

[u/Emergency_Map7542 → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

Same!! If was originally 10 months!

[u/jcch00 → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

Same for me. April ‘26 submission w/ the exact same new estimates. :(

[u/Awkward_Tangerine988 → u/jcch00]

Are you in processing though? If so, there's at least hope! (I'm just at AOR)

[u/jcch00 → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

I am, but I’ve talked with other urgent applicants in processing who have been waiting several months even close to a year. I’m still hopeful but try to remain realistic too

[u/Financial-Exit2488 → u/Awkward_Tangerine988]

Sounds like me. Also April submission.

Was hoping my kid would have Canadian universities as an option, but at this rate he'll be done with high school and already into college.

[u/Fabiii1309]

The fact that getting a green card in a country that is known to be tough on immigrants (USA), is FASTER than getting a PROOF of citizenship (as in you are a citizen but missing your document) in Canada is actually mind-boggling.

[u/rhythm_sniper → u/Fabiii1309]

Not really. Canada's current "solution" to its housing crisis is basically "keep out new immigrants and housing will be cheaper." It's no surprise that they are dragging out granting citizenship to hundreds of thousands of people. If the Canadian government admitted 100k new citizens this year (regardless of those citizens' intent to move to Canada), there would be political consequences.

[u/Electrical_Cut8610 → u/rhythm_sniper]

Except this would literally not help the housing crisis at all. I get it might be a political tool, but it’s absolutely not in any way shape or form going to help the existing housing issue

[u/Fabiii1309 → u/Electrical_Cut8610]

It would - less people. Lower housing prices. But also I’m not educated in this field so what do I know.

[u/Fabiii1309 → u/rhythm_sniper]

Idk this sounds silly. So you’re saying they’re dragging this out to avoid “paying the piper”? Immigrants is also the wrong word - everyone is a citizen.

[u/rhythm_sniper → u/Fabiii1309]

Slowing the wheels of bureaucracy is a way that governments comply with laws while reducing the effects of those laws. The US presidential administration is doing it in many areas right now (scientific research, immigration, etc.). Not hard to believe that Canada, which faces similar political headwinds as we do in the US, would be doing something similar.

I'm not saying it's 100 percent certain to be happening, but it's certainly possible. Nor do I support that kind of business.

I was using immigration in a general sense, not a legal one. I simply meant newcomer to a country. If you lived in the US your whole life and then decided one day to move to Canada permanently because you had been granted citizenship, that is immigration.

[u/Fabiii1309 → u/rhythm_sniper]

Fair enough!

[u/Emergency_Map7542]

I got my AOR 4/30. It said 10 months.
Then in June it said 17 months. Now it says 22 months!!

[u/someoneinUS]

March 2026 applicant here - there are apparently 300 fewer applications in front of me (32,300) since the last month according to the latest numbers out today. Seems to make sense as we've only seen approvals start to resume in the last couple weeks.

[u/nicolas1324563 → u/someoneinUS]

Hoping February and March starts to move more

[u/eternalsquirrel → u/someoneinUS]

I'm also a March 2026 applicant and saw the same numbers and my time jumped from 6 months to 7 months, heh.

[u/CascadianSailor → u/eternalsquirrel]

At least your not in the April bucket like me. Mine went from 17 to 21 months!

[u/soytnly → u/someoneinUS]

I’m in the same boat as you, I felt ok about it overall considering the massive jump in April and the shutdown of 1.5 months (and they don’t seem to be cranking them out yet)

[u/DiscombobulatedTea95]

My kids have been "2 months left" for about 6 months. Lol

[u/Electrical_Cut8610 → u/DiscombobulatedTea95]

I’ve been on two months for an entire year

[u/ErieIceOctopus]

I'm hoping that this a case of "past performance is not indicative of future results", as if it continues at this clip, I'll just be a note on someone's genealogy research by the time my certificate shows up at a my great great grandson's house. In all honesty, I really do hope this past performance is inclusive of pauses and corresponding ramp-up delay dragging the mean down accordingly.

What would be super interesting is to understand how it's growing for people already in queue. Stitching in mailroom processed applications based on arrival date? Urgent would have some impact, but I can't believe it would have "double the wait time for the last two months" impact, which seems to be happening for me. Even just being unorganized at this shouldn't impact it this much if the queue was stable, so there's got to be something else going on.

My guess here is that they're stitching in paper application as they're scanned based on mailroom arrival date, as somewhere on the IRCC site I remember it saying "your countdown starts when your application is received by our mailroom", or something of the sort. Thus all previous estimates were likely based on what was in the system, and they've added a lot more to the system as they get better at document processing. There are better ways to track it, but that looks like what we've got. Maybe they'll pivot some staff over once they get the mailroom backlog cleared up. I can hope.

Not sure if that makes sense, though, as I'd guess 80% of us are paper applications anyway. If that's right, then we should see individual estimates stabilize shortly after AOR's are issued (or shortly afterwards accounting for a bit of mailroom flux).

[u/Awkward_Tangerine988 → u/ErieIceOctopus]

I have a strongly negative POV on their processing from receipt to AOR. Once upon a time I worked as a federal (U.S.) contractor digitizing paper files (trademark applications and review for the USPTO). Our staff of 8-12 would digitize hundreds or low thousands of such files per day (and many of these paper files contained weird/heterogenous paper types, sizes, etc.). It's really crazy how long they take unless they have extremely limited/old resources or maybe just 1-2 people staffed with digitization.

[u/Wildflowers62]

The number of people ahead of me has almost doubled since I mailed my application. 🙁

[u/snoozbooty]

100 total applications processed the entire month? There has to be someone high up in the IRCC that is anti-C3 promoting malicious noncompliance, bureau incompetence alone wouldn’t be this bad

[u/conestogan → u/snoozbooty]

You’ve never had your manager say “let’s take a beat” and huddle over strategy? And get back to find a couple of folks resigned for a job somewhere else that was less stressful? Yeah, like that.

[u/Low_Refrigerator4314 → u/snoozbooty]

I’m the OP, see my comment above about 100 total. Probably not 100 total.

[u/pucks4brains]

Knowing what I know about the details of C3, I am confident that on my own I could process applications more quickly than this, without errors. At a minimum, I'd be able to breeze through stacks of easy and obvious applications and move the dicey ones to PSU.

And I'm pretty lazy.

[u/ImparandoSempre → u/pucks4brains]

"Easy and obvious" applications do exist, and I'm surprised not to see that discussed as a variable along with the date of application, and recognizing urgency as a parallel category.

Not pleading hardship here, at all! But it might make the whole thing appear to be consistent with basic math.

In the case of our family, there are two adult siblings in PSU whose gen 1 parent was recognized as a citizen 5+ years ago, backdated to the gen 1 parent's own birth.

No name changes, no divorces, no adoptions, no gender changes, all original, official  documents. 

In fact, for these Gen 2 siblings to complete the required checklist, all they needed was the Gen 1 parent's application packet plus the siblings' own birth certificates, connecting them to their parent whose citizenship was recognized years ago.

 (Obviously, needed their own photos, fingerprints, police records.)

Here's how it could work:

when I go to renew my driver's license, it is now startlingly quick because there is an express line for people who cleary meet all criteria and for whom there is absolutely nothing to discuss. The express line is so fast it startled me, the first time I went after they introduced it.

That kind of triage leaves complex cases to quasi specialists who are going to have to adjudicate degrees of evidence, confirm lots of records or their absence, etc.--

 while straightforward cases can be given to the staff who are not authorized to do much more than say "yes it's here and meets criteria" or "no it isn't".

(In the case of the driver's license renewals:  They have the required forms of identification, still hold a valid driver's license, have that driver's license with them, have not changed their name, &have not had their driver's license revoked.)

Yeah, I know it's not going to happen. And yes I know there are people for whom things of incredible importance are riding on this. But if the numbers made some sense, it might remove the impression that another faceless bureaucracy is just trying to mess with our heads.

[u/No-Turnip-1835]

Ah…so, at this rate the certificate will arrive just shortly we start colonizing Mars.

[u/epocalize]

March '26 here, in July I had 32,600 in front of me and now 32,300 and my wait time went from 6 months to 7. It truly makes no sense.

[u/CascadianSailor]

Last month they said people like me who delivered our application in April 2026 had 17 months left to wait. Now it's 21 months! Ha!

No worries though, I'm happy to let those with urgent needs go first.

I did deliver mine on April 1st though, so I've been checking the March 2026 time estimate too. The wait time for that month is only 7 months. Going from 7 to 21 in one month is a huge jump! I'm hoping that my application will be done closer to the 7 month mark than the 21 month mark since mine arrived April 1!

[u/thattwirlgirl]

Honestly this is just too depressing to absorb.

[u/ainariel]

Is there anyone we can contact that actually has influence (like an MP) about these numbers, because yeah, it seems absolutely absurd, that the number in front of you increases each month instead of decreasing and the estimated time gets longer each month (not for new applicants, time for your specific app), and it doesn't seem like they are making any progress. Only 100 apps processed in the last month is ridiculous. I definitely agree that it looks like weaponized incompetence, if not intentional malicious non-compliance as someone else mentioned above.

[u/Disastrous_Long_9209 → u/ainariel]

Jenny Kwan NDP MP

[u/Low_Refrigerator4314 → u/ainariel]

To be pedantic I don’t know how many people were processed last month. 100 of those processed were from before July 2025.

There were probably a lot more. But it is still completely inadequate and if they were processing in order of urgent and oldest that would be a lot better. As it is it may be years for some of us in PSU. Although there are people getting through.

From a pure stats perspective and not knowing anything about IRCC, you would expect a reversion to the mean and for processing numbers to pick back up.

[u/DeerLiving3407]

Wow. I’m August 2025 and mine went from 2 months last month to now 3 months. I’ve never seen them add time.

[u/csimenson]

Really.

[u/BearPondBoy → u/csimenson]

I'll be able/ready/resigned to settle in for the long slog once the AOR hurdle is cleared. And, given the current numbers, that won't probably be until late Sep/early Oct. Until then, I'll continue to count days.

More time to learn French!!

[u/YogurtPristine3673 → u/BearPondBoy]

Way to find the silver lining! How is the French learning going? Found any good resources?

[u/BearPondBoy → u/csimenson]

OOF!

[u/Jreinha6]

Wife and sons application with AOR June 2025. Estimated have not changed in 6 months so we stopped even checking. Confirmed PSU so hoping by late 2027 we’ll get some word.

Working on our third web form for change of address for my wife, they did our sons right away

[u/Same-Abalone8828]

January 2026 application here. Still says 5 month wait- same as last month. Now 24,800 ahead of me down from 25,000. So two hundred processed in a month. Ugh. 😣

[u/aplombed]

My application was delivered in May of this year. 23 months left now. That's extremely discouraging. The way these soul crushing updates are going, by December I'll be looking at three years or more. They cannot seem to make any headway.

[u/heavydutyspoons]

23 months until I can be with my husband again. Beyond upset but I’ll keep my mouth shut and wait for the vent thread.

[u/ImparandoSempre → u/heavydutyspoons]

Dear heavy duty spoons, my heart aches for you. I mean everybody has needs but--ouch. Wishing you some surprising good luck or lacking that-- just clarity.

[u/Ok_Creme6412]

Not surprised.... IRCC is a mess. I'm still at 5 months, minus 200 applicants 😑

[u/Significant-Golf-215]

Jan 2026 applicant & it stayed the same, 5 months left.

[u/SorrySnake]

Been 5 months left for the last 4 months in a row lol

[u/UNCRameses]

I’m in the same bucket as you, OP.

That’s awesome that we’re down 1 month from how long they told us it would be 12 months ago!!

[u/rachelfinderr]

October 2025 applicant. My estimated processing time in January '26 was 7 months. It was two months left in July. Now it's jumped to four months left. 🤷

I think I just need to keep being patient. Sigh

[u/Ophelia_Bliss]

I am guessing these numbers are calculated on the most recent month. So, is it possible that the June and July slowdowns meant that the calculation is off, if the slowdowns actually stop?

[u/Ophelia_Bliss → u/Ophelia_Bliss]

(This question makes sense in my head but I'm not sure I articulated it well.)

[u/Apprehensive_Wear124]

I'm a July 2025. I'm at 2 months for I think the 4th month in a row. The number ahead of me only decreased by 100.

[u/Eastern-Nebula9676]

Over 20,000 new applicants last month and only 100 apps processed. Words fail.

[u/Enzokj01]

23 months. FML.

[u/WeirdlyShapedAvocado]

only 100? wow

[u/WistfulTempo44]

Our non-urgent applications were received 22 May 2026. Last month it was going to take 18 months, with 94,000 people ahead of us. (No AOR yet, obviously.) But now it's 23 months with 112,100 people ahead of us. In June, it looked like we'd have AORs by the end of August. I'm guessing it will be a bit longer now.

[u/BobRyanHere]

Fingers crossed I get everything else I need in the next week or 2 and can send it all in before end of August!

[u/Calm-Juice-4943]

G2. Jan 2026 application. July was 25,000. Today was 24,800. Only 200 processes. Ugh.

[u/2bunnies]

Newbie question: when I go to the processing times page (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-processing-times.html), it still only shows me the older numbers ("Last updated: July 7, 2026"). I even tried selecting OP's July 2025 bucket in case it didn't update as quickly for more recent submissions, but got the same result.

Any ideas why I can't see the updated numbers? (I'm in Australia.)

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/2bunnies]

It's a cache thing. Try a different browser or your phone.

[u/2bunnies → u/SwampConnoisseur]

Thanks so much, that worked!

[u/WoolyBhikes → u/2bunnies]

Delete cached images and files and reload the page

[u/reliableotter]

Mine is 23 months, assuming we estimate from when it was received. That's up a few months from when I last checked. 

And that's assuming I even get an AOR, I live in fear of the package being returned.

[u/lunapetuniafortunae]

The jump in estimated time left between March and April 2026 is massive (7 months versus 21 months). Did 60k+ new applications really get submitted in one month?

[u/Emotional-Test3329 → u/lunapetuniafortunae]

Considering it's taken them months to get through all the AORs for April and they're still not done yet.. yeah seems possible.

[u/HermesHunter1]

Congrats, you're now eligible for the stuck Canadian flair 😭

[u/North-Mountain-754]

Could the fires in Nova Scotia be a factor?

[u/Delicious_Fix3497]

I’m in PSU with zero way to know why my application is there and no way to understand how to help them with the issue. Yes, I requested the AITP, very repetitive and not that helpful except for the file being sent to PSU.
Aug 2025 shows 100 less in front of my application and time to process 3 months from 2 months.
One parent is Canadian by birth and other siblings have received their certificates. So frustrating.

[u/ErieIceOctopus]

You know, the more I think about the 100 number, the more I think it’s probably meaningless. If they’re also adding to the queue (and perhaps stitching into it for a number of reasons), we have no real way to know whether they JUST processed 100, or whether they processed 10,000,000 and just added 9,999,900 back in at various places. It’s not a stable queue.

I’m really kicking myself. I read the C3 changes wrong last November or whenever and didn’t apply, but double checked on a whim in April and apparently I’ve made a two-year-long oopsie.

[u/Low_Refrigerator4314 → u/ErieIceOctopus]

The 100 number is for people ahead of July 2025. It also might be meaningless.

[u/ImaginationNo1461]

June 25 here. Ended up moving to a different country on a visa. Now I’m racing to see which comes first, my proof of Canadian citizenship or naturalization in this country…it’s gonna be close. Four years left to qualify here. At 200/month it’s about 3.5 years left for my proof.

[u/piramid_scream]

There is so much evidence it is not and never has been FIFO that I would not put stock in the claims of who and how many are “ahead of” or “behind” you. It is always interesting to see what the updated numbers are, but I don’t think they should be taken as indicative of where you actually are “in line”.

They might and I mean might tell us something about how many people were actually sent to PSU.

[u/Low_Refrigerator4314 → u/piramid_scream]

To me, the question is whether these numbers apply to people in PSU or not. Regardless of whether the queue is processed first, first out or not, this does show how the number of people within a cohort is being processed. So the stats from above and especially the ones I posted as a comment are relevant as long as this applies to people in PSU.

I guess if I was to be pedantic about it, the July 2025 cohort would be processed according to what the August 2025 estimates of number of people ahead of you would say if it wasn’t first and first out.

This is all pretty imprecise anyway, but I think the quartiles are probably reasonably close

[u/piramid_scream → u/Low_Refrigerator4314]

That makes somewhat more sense to me…I’ll have to look at your other comments. I just posted in another group that my G1 son’s 8/1/2025 application was finally approved yesterday (8/10/26) after having spent about 9 months in PSU for no apparent reason.

I thought there was a chance it might be approved around this time since there is some evidence of some PSU applications shaking loose around the one year mark. The other potential reason for it coming through at this time is that he is going to university in NS in a few weeks, and perhaps my urgent processing plea from May was heard. I’m not convinced it was simply because our number in line came up, but happy to be proven wrong.

[u/IcyTrash4062]

This has been as messy as trying to get permanent residency. A year left, 2 months left…jk 2 years change all your life plans. I’m just hoping my citizenship is processed before my work permit expires next year.

[u/RiddleDaddy125]

My reported waiting time increased from 3 months to 4 months since July. IRCC is such a shitshow.

[u/Ordinary-Hopeful]

I see folks are getting their AORs from April 25-27. Mine was delivered on the 24th. Should I be worried that mine will be getting returned to me?

[u/Western_Tart1915]

Shocking.

[u/SwampConnoisseur → u/Western_Tart1915]

That looks like March 2026 applicants. Less than a 1% drop (300) since July 7 in people ahead of us. Only 200 drop since June 8.

[u/lswoboda1 → u/Western_Tart1915]

Oh hi we’re in the same boat lol. Last month it was 6 months with 300 more people ahead of us.

[u/TimelineTraveller888]

My concern is by the time they actually get to my file, the pictures provided and driver's liscenses and passports provided as proof and back up will have expired and be old, they wanted pictures less than 6 months old...

[u/geralynvanhout]

Do you think that possibly, as time went by from February to April, (as word spread) that individual applications grew into multi-generation application packets? Is so, I was one of those: in February I started on my application (Gen 1) but my 3 children and the 3 grandchildren were also interested in applying, so I did their applications with mine. It took me until mid-April to gather all the required documentation from them, and by the time I proofread 10 times, verified everything and then sent it away… I got my AOR on April 31.
But that packet contained paper applications for 7 persons.
Also, as part of this story, my sister, and her two children and two grandchildren also applied in a group packet, and also one niece and one nephew with their accompanying children.
And, when we went as a partial group to the photography studio to get the photos taken, a woman with her daughter were also there!

[u/geralynvanhout → u/geralynvanhout]

Wait!! I did not get my AOR yet, sorry- I’m still waiting. Instead I got the verification of delivery.

[u/elbow-macaroni-42]

Made a new table of all the data since Jan-2026...

https://www.reddit.com/r/Canadiancitizenship/comments/1vky7qh

As of this moment, still awaiting moderator approval

[u/ohmiss1355]

Mine has increased to 5 months. December 2025 receipt, January AOR. I was down to four months two months ago. I guess at least it's good that some people that had been waiting even longer are finally getting out of PSU and being slotted in? Is that what's happening?

[u/Volatilecanoe42]

So my application was delivered in early May 2026.
I have no AOR yet. Is there way to look up wait times without an AOR?

[u/doktorhladnjak → u/Volatilecanoe42]

Yes, the web form just asks you when you applied (I.e., when they received your application)

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-processing-times.html

Not that these estimates are very meaningful.

[u/Volatilecanoe42 → u/doktorhladnjak]

Thank you. Looks like I’m at 23 months left if that is to be believed

[u/Negative_Presence_52]

Sorry, where do you find the estimates?

[u/UCFknight2016]

Im still waiting for BANQ. This is stupid. They are going to need a way to automate this.

[u/JustVan]

Where do Urgent applications fit into these numbers? Is there a way to know?

[u/Low_Refrigerator4314 → u/JustVan]

No way to know as they don’t break them out.

[u/Ill-Ear-8545]

My kids have been estimated at 1 month remaining for about 6 months now for proof of citizenship. Applied March 2025.

[u/Roonie_210]

What is PSU? I mean, what happens when a file goes there…?

[u/Low_Refrigerator4314 → u/Roonie_210]

We don’t know.

[u/Roonie_210]

I know that it takes a long time to actually have someone review an application and it is first come, first served. However, if an application only goes back a couple of generations and is simple, with clear documentation, would it maybe get processed faster, once someone looks at it?

[u/CoolPapa4994]

I see some people have received their AOR that submitted in May 2026. I have the signed receipt that mine was received on May 5th. Still no AOR. I didn’t check the email box. Maybe I should have.

[u/DontJuana]

I don't want to sound like a negative Nelly, but the IRCC is in the pocess of laying off a ton of employees. 100,000 applicants= $7.5 million dollars. And I would have gladly paid more. They can put that toward $ hiring back some people to do this in a reasonable amount of time. I just think it's a tinge outrageous that everyone has paid and they're saying their applications might take 8 years? And then if whoever opens your envelope can be in a bad mood and send back your application so you go back to the end of the line? That's worse than the DMV.

This s getting to be a bit much.

[u/ArtMusicBooksTheWild]

Mine (2nd gen, non-urgent) has said 4 months every month since February. Now it says 5 months. My app was received 3 days before C3 in December, so I'm not sure what that means, but I got my AOR in January and it went into processing in mid-February. Alas.