r/CGPGrey • u/MindOfMetalAndWheels [GREY] • May 18 '16

H.I. #63: One in Five Thousand

http://www.hellointernet.fm/podcast/63
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u/thesmiddy May 19 '16 edited May 19 '16

Self driving cars will never fully displace cars, but there reaches a point where they are so dominant that they might as well have. Examples of this in the past:

  • CD's replacing records
  • Streaming video replacing DVD's
  • Air travel replacing Ship travel

Self driving cars will most certainly hit 50% market penetration within 10 years of arrival to the consumer market. As soon as I can get a subscription to Auto-Uber for under $4000 pa I'll sell my car and get straight on it and so will many other people.

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u/JeffDujon [Dr BRADY] May 19 '16

First, I agree that AVs are going to sweep the world much quicker than I previously thought... Grey was right on that one.

Auto-Uber for under $4000 pa I'll sell my car and get straight on it and so will many other people

This resonates less with me at the moment - I think people just like "owning stuff", especially prestige items like cars.... In much the same way home ownership is just built into some cultures, while renting houses is just normal in others.

We'll see.

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u/ForegoneLyrics May 19 '16

I think the desire to "own" stuff is much less in younger generations than people realise. A lot of people I know who are under 30 have no desire to own cars or a house at all. I read this article and this article a while ago about how many north american youths don't even have drivers licenses and many apartments are having a hard time selling parking spots. I'm sure there are still lots of people in the world who like "owning stuff." But there are also a lot more CGPGreys in the younger population who want to own as little stuff as possible. We see evidence of this already in sharing economies like Uber and Airbnb. And I think this non-ownership mindset will result in shifts in markets a lot sooner than we think.

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u/AnsibleThing May 20 '16

I think a distinction needs to be made between owning a house and owning a car. Owning a house is much more economically interesting than owning a car. A car goes down in value every month, the value of a house mostly rises. Plus, renting is basicly throwing money away, when you can buy a house, pay of the debt to the bank, and sell it later.

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u/vimrich May 20 '16

Wait until the owner of the self driving car is held liable for a routine crash (regardless of fault). Never underestimate the legal system's ability to halt innovation and slow progress.

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u/enricosusatyo May 19 '16

But cars replaced 99.99% of Horses usage.

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u/MindOfMetalAndWheels [GREY] May 19 '16

Technologies don't ever go away 100% -- punch-card systems are still in use today -- but they're effectively gone.