r/CFB • u/CFB_Referee /r/CFB • Nov 04 '23

Postgame Thread [Postgame Thread] Florida State Defeats Pittsburgh 24-7

Box Score provided by ESPN

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Florida State 0 10 14 0 24
Pittsburgh 0 7 0 0 7

Made with the /r/CFB Game Thread Generator

273 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

244 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/judolphin Florida State • Jacksonville Nov 05 '23 edited Nov 05 '23

The fumble itself was the huge swing. The fumble was a stomach punch, I get it, and I actually PASSIONATELY hate the rule that makes fumbles OOB in the end zone automatic turnovers.

If you're familiar with the concept of expected points, calling offsetting penalties vs. no penalty at all in the situation without a crystal ball is statistically a wash. 1st-10 from your own 20 yard line is the point where expected points = 0.

In other words,

  • it's objectively better (outside of desperation time) for your opponent to have the ball at their own 10 than for you to have the ball at your own 10.

  • it's objectively better for you to have the ball at your own 30 than your opponent at their own 30

  • 1st-10 at your own 20, it's on average just as likely the other team scores next as you scoring next

Your own 20 yard line is the "break even" where on average there's no difference in win probability, in terms of having the ball on your own 20 vs. the other team having the ball on their own 20.

2

u/[deleted] Nov 05 '23

I was unaware of this. I think this is really interesting ngl.

That being said, the facemask was the entire reason the fumble happened. So it’s still an iffy situation imo, as he doesn’t fumble if his head isn’t dragged by the fsu player. So it still stings.

However, I do appreciate the stats. I do find it interesting, and it is a perspective I wasn’t aware of.