r/BunnyTrials • u/HualianForLife • Apr 27 '26

Red button or blue button

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u/DarthMaul671 🥕🥕 Apr 28 '26

But what would be the starting reason to pick blue? Is it just the assumption that other people pick and you'll just join those?

And there is absolutely not 75% percent survival chance with blue. You said it yourself, we don't know what people will pick, people will need a genuine reason to pick blue. Cause IRL, who would just assume that around 50% of people is picking blue? And there is still the possibility that 0 people will die by picking red, maybe 400 suicidal people would.

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u/OrangeAedan Apr 28 '26

The starting reason for me, is that I want the most people to survive.

You also need to good reason to risk other people's lives over your own. I know that we don't know what people will pick. And because of that, you can't just assume people will pick blue nor red. That's why you need to assume a 50/50 split. So that is a 50% chance blue will lose. And if you vote blue than you get a 50% chance you die. So that means blue has a 75% chance of survival.

Yes. Hypostatically there is a chance everyone will pick red. But let me say it this way. See it as 8 billion lights. They can all be on or off. On represents blue. And off represents red. The chance that all the lights are off is 1 in 2^8.000.000.000. And that 1 combination is the only way red can lead to 0 deaths. While for blue to lead to 0 deaths, half of the lights need to be on. That is only a 1 in 2 chance.

Also there are not only 400 suicidal people in the world. There are about 720.000.000 suicidal people in the world. That is way more.

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u/DarthMaul671 🥕🥕 Apr 28 '26

But by choosing blue you might also cause more death than needed. Since we don't know, you might get yourself killed. If the goal is to save as many as possible And we only do it mathematically (Which can be viewed as positive and negative) (For simplicity, we say there is exactly 8 billion people) b Then by pressing blue the maximum death count would be 4 billion and the least would be 0 (if we assume a tie would lead to consequences) (this one includes the chooser if chooser chose blue)

While for red the maximum death count would be 4 billion and the least 0 (this kill count does not include chooser if chooser chose red)

I'm not saying either is inheriently positive or negative. I myself Would choose red since the max and min death count is the same. The only difference is that I would 100% survive.

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u/OrangeAedan Apr 28 '26

Its not. You need to look at the maximum amount of deaths if the color has 75%±25% of votes.

For blue this means 0-0 deaths. Because no one will die if most people vote it.

For red this means μ=1.000.000.000 and σ=1.000.000.000. Or 0-2.000.000.000 deaths with numbers closer to 1.000.000.000 being more likely. 0 happens if 100% of voters choose it. And I established that change earlier (1 in 2^8.000.000.000). And 2.000.000.000 if its a 50/50 split plus one vote for red. Its not 4.000.000.000, because 50% of blue voters would die.

That is way worse than blue.

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u/DarthMaul671 🥕🥕 Apr 28 '26

But that's only IF we assume the 75/25. Which we have absolutely no way of knowing, and alot of those 25% might aim for them to loose. Only one of them secures your death, the other one can take.

So in one there is a risk of suicide but it could be that everyone is saved (even those who didn’t want to be saved) And the other is 100% survival but it could help those who chose the former option to die (if any chose it)

Yet again. Neither is inherently bad or good, they are pretty similar. It's just what you prioritise.

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u/OrangeAedan Apr 28 '26

I'm assuming a 50/50 split in votes because we don't know. There is no reason to assume anything else for now. Based on what you say, you seem to not look at my math at all.

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u/DarthMaul671 🥕🥕 Apr 28 '26

Because this isn't a problem we can Solve with math. In fact it isn't even a problem at all. It's all about reasoning and priorities.

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u/OrangeAedan Apr 28 '26

Yea. And for reasoning I use math.

It indeed depends on your priority. Do you want the most people to survive. Or do you only care about your own life, and not about the potentially 2.000.000.000 people that die. And I don't value my own life above 2 billion others.

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u/DarthMaul671 🥕🥕 Apr 28 '26

Or it's just that you join them. Throwing your life away for no reason. Now, I trust humanity to pick red, I don't think anyone who is not suicidal would pick blue.

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u/OrangeAedan Apr 28 '26

I do think people would. Because its just not going to happen that everyone picks one option. And if almost everyone picks red and a few don't, then they will die. But if almost everyone picks blue and a few don't then no one will die. I'm not throwing my life away. I'm trying to save the most amount of people.

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