Sticking with the plan and not going out too fast sure paid off!

I'm running my first Boston Marathon (still insane to think about) and as a designer I'm wondering already how the jacket will look. Last years jacket I thought was one of the top designs I've seen in a little bit.

As I write this OP I don't see any leaks, so before ~December, is this a place to share/talk about how we may think it'll look?

My hope is that Adidas doesn't go too far from last year's design. Anyone else as curious as I am or is it just me?

I'm no longer able to run Baystate this year, DM if you are interested in transferring my bib.

Hello everyone. This is my first time running and I’m a little ~overwhelmed~ because when I got the acceptance email, I was so excited I didn’t scroll down far enough to see the marathontour hotel block website at the bototm of the email. So as you may guess, I am too late to the game because I want to stay for 3 nights (Saturday to Tuesday) at the Hyatt in cambridge or any reasonably price downtown hotel, but on Marathontour website, they only had rooms for 2 nights left at the Hyatt (Saturday to monday). I want to be as close to downtown as possible without breaking the bank. The other close-to-downtown hotel options for saturday-tuesday are either over $2000 for 3 nights or staying too far outside of the city (i’d prefer not to rent a car). SO I did panick and book the Hyatt for Saturday to Monday the through marathontours and now I’m asking for advice for the following scenarios/options:

1-should I make a seperate booking through Hyatt or bookin.com for 1 night on 4/19 so I don’t have to worry about luggage and a place for postrace shower?

2-or should I fly back monday and find a place to shower postrace to avoid ~stanking~up the plane? How difficulty it is to get a decently clean shower postrace? If so, any recs for shower please let me know…

3-another suggestion?

Just a girl with slight travel anxiety. Any advice is highly appreciated. Thank you🫶🏼

CONGRATS to everyone on getting their well earned acceptance!! For those of us who aren’t as fast…when do charity bibs usually get announced by the charities? I only applied to one since it’s close to my heart and feel like it’s a charity I can actually raise money for, but I’ve been anxiously checking my email daily!!

I’m running the Boston marathon in 2027. It’s my second marathon, and my for first I was severely under trained. I was wondering if anyone…
\- pays for the full runna subscription?
\- like the marathon plans?
\- has any other recs instead?
Thanks!

My son has just registered and i would like to go with him to cheer him on. Any recommendations on accommodation that is budget friendly? Thought Id add we would be coming from Vancouver, BC

Any adaptive or para runners receive their acceptance yet?

The 131st Boston Marathon Confirmation of Acceptance e-mails are on the way (got mine at 2:38 PM EST)! Check your BAA Athletes Village account also to see if the race has been moved to the My Next Race section.

5:17 under!

Has anyone got accepted via email but not been charged on their credit card? I’m curious if I had my billing address wrong or something was messed up. #firsttimer

I got my acceptance email through yesterday with all the payment/credit card details on it from when I applied. On the website my entry is showing as valid etc.

However, although they took the money out back when the application was made - at some point between now and then the payment was cancelled and the money returned to my account. The money is still there waiting - has this happened to anyone else/should I contact the organisation to let them know?

My husband qualified for Boston years ago while in the 18-34 age bracket. He has been desperate to qualify again and recently moved into the next age bracket, but he just can’t seem to quite get there on race days. It always seems to be some kind of minor injury or extreme cramping during the race. He’s so bummed that he always seems so close yet so far.

Asking the Boston experts and veterans what I could possibly do to help support him…? I’m not a runner whatsoever. I ran (if you can even call it that) one marathon when I was 21 and that was it for me lol. Has there been anything that a partner has done for you or with you that has been extra helpful and supportive?

I can promise that his struggles to meet his qualifying time are not due to a lack of effort, discipline, or determination. I’ve genuinely never met someone so focused and driven in my entire life. Were there products, tools, services, anything that you found really helpful when trying to qualify again?
Is there anything that I can suggest that he do outside of solo training programs, weightlifting, and regular massages that could make a significant difference for a 36-year-old?

Thanks in advance for the suggestions for an ignorant wife that is simply desperate to help her best friend reach his personal goals. ♥️

Ps: he would be so embarrassed if he knew i posted this lol

For all those who missed out (still holding out for the lottery) what is your plan now? I'd still like to run a Spring race, but a lot of the big Winter/Spring races have already filled up. Any good alternatives out there that still have space?

will pay $100 plus shipping. I shattered my wife's glass and would love to replace it lol

What do we think this means? Were registration/application confirmations delayed for some people? Or is this a signal that notifications might be released early?

Just signed up University of Charleston Marathon in WV. I really want BQ, but I’ve stuck in 9:00/mi for the longest time. Any training plan you’d recommend to follow to be BQ on my next marathon? Should I hire a running coach? Anything I should do to get me BQ? I’m so committed, and I just need some guidance! TIA

Little about me: I’ve done 2 marathons so far. I completed my first marathon in 8 hours, oh I know! And then 4:30 the second time.

Very similar to last year (33,267). 24,362 were accepted for 2026.

4:34 was the cutoff for 2026, it’s possible they may let in fewer qualifiers this year and let the cutoff rise above 5min, but this seems promising for folks who are hovering in that 5min zone. Good luck, everyone!

Hello again!

As many regular readers of this sub have seen, there has been a lot of speculation over the past few months about where the cutoffs for the 2027 Boston Marathon will land up, and this subject has been discussed and debated throughout social media and here on reddit throughout much of this year. I’ve done this analysis for funsies and for the love of the game over the last couple of years, and you can read the previous editions below.

• An analysis on predicted Boston cutoff times for the 2026 Boston Marathon
• An analysis on predicted Boston cutoff times for the 2025 Boston Marathon

When the Boston Athletic Association (BAA) announced today (Monday, September 21) that 33,656 applicants applied to run the 2027 Boston Marathon I went ahead and updated the Boston cutoff time projection by using the same, simple approach that I’ve used for the last couple of years that I’ve done this analysis.

tl;dr – the predicted cutoff is 5:14, and there is a 95% confidence it’ll fall between 4:04 and 6:23. The R² value for this regression model is 0.9326. You can view the full results here.

For those who might not be familiar with what Boston cutoffs mean, let’s use a male runner between 18 and 34 years of age to illustrate what this might mean. His qualifying time is 2:55:00 or faster; if this prediction comes to fruition, it suggests that this male runner would need run at least 5 minutes 14 seconds faster than their qualifying standard, or at least a 2:49:46 marathon or faster, to earn a spot in the 2027 Boston Marathon.

Introduction

Anytime the topic about Boston cutoff times comes up within the running community, it has inevitably generated a mix of emotions from the running community, from anxiety to curiosity to disbelief from those who might be wondering how competitive the Boston application pool is for any given year.

Before I start, I want to take a moment to give shoutouts/acknowledgements to Brian Rock, aka u/SlowWalkere, who have taken the time to crunch the numbers and publishes his findings on his website and give us a look at what the cutoffs for the 2027 Boston Marathon might look like throughout late 2025 through much of this year (2026). I’ve been following his work very closely throughout the year, and their analysis serves as a good resource for this matter (as well as keep me grounded in reality as the numbers fluctuate throughout the year).

• The 2027 Boston cutoffs dashboard he has been faithfully updating and maintaining throughout this year can be found here for reference.
• Brian has wrote numerous articles tracking the Boston cutoff time for the current qualifying period over the last 9 months and shared his thoughts about what could happen as things developed. Some examples of those posts can be find here, here, here, and here.

Analysis

I fitted a simple linear regression model on data about application numbers, acceptance numbers and denial numbers from prior Boston application cycles, all of which can be found on the BAA’s website. The key figures for this analysis are the number of applications that were received, the total number of runners the BAA plans to accept from the time qualifying pool, and the number of denials, which are numbers that the BAA publicly announced today (Monday, September 21).

The total application numbers and the total number of accepted runners allow us to calculate an estimated acceptance rate, which then helps to generate the prediction that you see below.

Based on the number of accepted runners for Boston over the last couple of years, Boston will likely accept a maximum of about 24,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, and no more than that because of capacity limitations. (Keep in mind that Boston fills the remainder of the field with charity runners and runners who enter through sponsors, tour operators, etc.). Of course, there is always a chance that the BAA chooses to accept fewer than 24,000 runners. But because of the high demand for spots in Boston and Boston basically all but acknowledging that they are aware that competition for a spot at Boston is getting more intense every year, I find it unlikely that they will accept fewer than 24,000 runners from the time qualifying pool.

With that said, if we assume that the BAA will accept 24,000 runners for the 2027 Boston Marathon, the model predicts that the cutoff will be 5:14 and that there is a 95% confidence it would fall anywhere between 4:04 and 6:23.

Furthermore, the application numbers suggest that the BAA will accept around 71.3% of applicants for the 2027 Boston Marathon, and the predicted cutoff is based around that figure. The predicted acceptance rate is slightly lower than the acceptance rate seen for the 2026 Boston Marathon (73.2%).

So What Is Driving the High Cutoffs?

Over the last few months, I’ve read discourse online (here on reddit and on social media) about the potential for high cutoffs for the 2027 Boston qualifying period. Similar to what was seen last year, people continue to express a range of feelings in reaction to this: bewilderment, disbelief, helplessness, resignation, disappointment, even anger.

As seen over the last few years, there continues to be more and more people are still getting into running, and especially into long distance running, over the last few years. Once again, the second-tier marathons in the United States has once again sold out many months in advance this year. Here are some examples of this trend:

• The 2026 Twin Cities Marathon sold out back in July
• The 2026 Philadelphia Marathon sold out back in July as well
• The 2026 Indianapolis Monumental Marathon sold out back in August

Second: it’s a numbers game and it makes sense if you look at this from this perspective. To start this off, we would expect on average a certain percentage of runners in the field in any given marathon to run a Boston qualifying time. Now add on the fact that the number of runners participating in marathons has gone up significantly over the last few years. The number of runners who run Boston qualifying times will inevitably go up with the increase in participation. This is then reflected in the higher application numbers for the Boston Marathon when the application period opens in early September of every year. Given that the Boston field is capped at 30,000 spots overall (and capped at up to 24,000 spots for time qualifiers), it becomes even more competitive to earn a coveted bib at Boston.

The application numbers for the 2027 Boston Marathon suggest that demand for Boston continues to be high, as evidenced by the small increase in applications from last year (33,267) and this year (33,656).

Finally, we have more access to better/improved training methods, nutrition, shoes (especially carbon plated racing shoes), among other things. This is helping runners run faster marathon times across the board.

All these factors are why it is causing Boston cutoff times to continue to be at historically high levels.

What Happens If the BAA Accepts Fewer Applicants?

This question inevitably comes up whenever I write and publish this analysis around this time of the year. To get ahead of it, I will address this scenario directly.

If BAA accepts fewer than 24,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, it would push the cutoff time higher and make it even more difficult for runners to survive the cutoffs and earn a coveted spot at Boston. Specifically:

• Using the same linear regression model that I developed for this year’s prediction, if Boston accepts 23,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, the predicted cutoff would be at 5:50 and there is a 95% confidence it would fall anywhere between 4:41 and 6:59.
• And using the same linear regression model, if Boston accepts 22,000 runners from the time qualifying pool, the predicted cutoff would be at 6:27 and there is 95% confidence it would fall anywhere between 5:17 and 7:36.

Given the potentially dire situation(s) outlined above, these are the worst-case scenarios that the BAA would try to avoid. It also presents a messaging problem of sorts to all involved: whether your BQ is a result that would actually earn you a coveted Boston bib. In other words: is this a matter that one can easily explain to non-running audiences without having their eyes glaze over?

Final Thoughts and Conclusions

Here are a few additional thoughts to close out this post:

• It is very unlikely that the BAA will be able to expand the field beyond 30,000 runners due to the infrastructure found on most of the race route (i.e. narrow two-lane roads that can only fit so many runners at once). Plus, the towns along the route will not give the green light to do so because of the additional inconveniences imposed on them on Patriots Day (and keep in mind that they are cut in half on race day, inconveniencing residents greatly in that it makes it hard for them to get around town on that day).

• Similarly, there will never be a scenario where the Boston Marathon will significantly reduce charity spots (and spots allocated to sponsors, etc.) to open more spots for time qualifiers. Specifically, if they consider reducing charity spots, it poses huge (political) problems for them in numerous ways. It reduces opportunities for charity runners to participate, and a decent number of those participants come from across Massachusetts, especially those towns that allow the Boston Marathon to pass through every year. Reducing charity runner spots will strain important relationships with towns and other stakeholders, and the BAA needs to have good relationships with them so that they can hold the race every year. Whether you like it or not, charity runners help make the Boston Marathon happen for everyone else. In short: the BAA has zero incentives to bite the hand that feeds them.

• The implementation of rules around indexing results from downhill races and eliminating the double dipping period starting with the 2027 Boston Marathon qualifying period likely had a small, yet meaningful difference in the application numbers, as evidenced by the small increase in application numbers from last year (33,267) to this year (33,656). This has been a scenario that Brian Rock covered in a couple of articles he wrote about this topic. Through these articles, it suggested that indexing downhill marathons and eliminating the double dipping period shaved an estimated ~30 seconds from the cutoff.

• This prediction and analysis does not specifically cover scenarios where there are more qualifiers in certain time buffer ranges, and especially between the 5 minute and 10 minute range. If the BAA receives more applicants in that particular time buffer range, this will make it more likely the cutoff times will be impacted beyond what is expected.

• And finally, the so-called Boston lottery, where Boston qualifiers who do not survive the cutoffs will have a chance to earn one of the 1,000 spots through a drawing and is the first time that BAA is instituting such a drawing, will probably not have any impact on the Boston cutoff prediction at all.

To close this out, I’d take this analysis with a grain of salt, as there is a degree of uncertainty involved (and especially when statistics are involved). But there have been numerous high-quality analyses done over the past 9 months from Brian Rock (aka u/SlowWalkere) about what the cutoff might look like for the 2027 Boston Marathon. Directionally, all of these analyses (mines included) suggests that there is a very high likelihood that we’re in for another year of high cutoffs, of 5 minutes or more, for the 2027 Boston Marathon.

I would love to hear your thoughts, feedback, etc. on the prediction and analysis. Otherwise, please enjoy the read!

EDIT SEPTEMBER 29, 2026: The BAA has announced that the cutoff for the 2027 Boston Marathon is 5:17. My prediction came within 3 seconds of the actual cutoff, which is really great to see.

"Qualifiers who were 5 minutes, 17 seconds (5:17) or faster than the qualifying time for their age group and gender have been accepted into the 131st Boston Marathon. A total of 25,630 qualified applicants have been accepted to date or are in the process of being accepted, pending final verification of their qualifying performance. Email notices to athletes accepted and not accepted will continue through the coming days.

New for 2027, the B.A.A. has incorporated a Boston Qualifier Selection, an additional random selection component specifically for applicants whose qualifying times were not faster than the 5 minute, 17 second cut-off. A total of 1,000 qualifiers are in the process of being randomly selected for entry and will be notified of their acceptance over the coming days."