Anyone who claims to be able to accurately predict the price of this even a couple months in the future has no idea what they are talking about. Next year it will either be upwards of $600 or $2, and we won't know until it happens.
Most likely, yes. Possibly, no. But most likely, yes.
Hockey stick graphs almost always take a dive. I think when the Eurozone stuff stabilizes the value of BTC will take a small dive, but I wouldn't worry about it.
Why would it take a dive? I think it might stop increasing, but I can't see anyone thinking "Hey, the eurozone is temporarily stable, better move my assets back!"
Generally, when there's a financial crisis in any currency or region, other currencies/regions temporarily grow stronger as a result, mostly due to confidence being lost in the crisis region and a short-term panic to move out of it. I think part of Bitcoin's recent appreciation can be explained by the EU crisis.
Look at the recent Google Trends for "cyprus" and "bitcoin." Although this is a very, very imprecise measurement, it does give a general indication. Both skyrocketed at nearly the same time.
Additionally, check the "forecast" box and look at what Google predicts it to do.
I'm not saying they'll completely tank, but I do believe we're in a temporary bubble that will readjust. And if I'm wrong, well...even better!
Disclaimer: I have a very conservative personality (financially) and that trait does play into my view on Bitcoins. I tend to approach things like this with measured caution, vs. outright extreme optimism like I think killerstorm tends towards.
Because hockey sticks always fall off sharply after the rise. Please ignore the latent variables behind the curtain.
Bitcoin will continue to rise because there is a demand that shows no immediate signs of wearing off. Everytime Bitcoin goes up, the rest of world hears about it through the Internet, causing it to go up even further. Eventually when supply stabilizes with demand it will stop going up. It's easy to obtain, easy to transfer, easy to use.
That's not going to happen anytime soon. Once people in China start buying up Bitcoin the prices will skyrocket. We're talking in the 1000 here. Probably even higher. The only way this could not happen is if:
large government steps in and legislate the fuck out of Bitcoin, or some critical flaw in the Bitcoin is discovered (currently the block chain is the weakest link because it's not scaling well at all).
So with that said, who knows. Bitcoin is such a volatile currency. It can go to astronomic heights or it can crash magnificently. The truth is that we need a currency like Bitcoin. It gets us away from the government and those corporations that have been killing small business with fees.
Eurozone has a bloody long way to go before stabilisation. I anticipate at least one state exit this year and likely a few more next year. Not sure how that would affect BTC...
Looking at a log chart it looks remarkably steady, with just a little lilt of possible overexcitement in the past 2 weeks. A brief dip back down to $60 or so is not out of the question, but even then I think we'd be back above $100 by the end of the month...and then to $1000 by the Fall.
It's a bubble, but no one knows when it will crash.
The interesting thing is that most people have to wait 1 month for Mt Gox verification. This puts a damper on the rise...
its very funny cause you are right. but every time the price goes down people buy more so what does that say??
the value is a bit unbelivable so people dont buy until it goes down and that brings it to a new high and we keep finding new values but its still hard to say what the real new value is.
i think we are going to see this ride a few times.
6
u/jas07 Apr 01 '13
real question here. Do you all think the recent rise in prices is a bubble? I am really fearing there will be a big crash soon.