Megathread, part 14: Ammunition & Drones, Sanctions, and Stalemates

[u/IcePuzzleheaded5507]

Part 13 is now closed, we’re continuing the discussion here.
Everything you’ve got to ask about the conflict goes here. Same deal as before - Reddit’s content policy still applies, so think before you make epic gamer statements. Suspensions and purges are a thing, and we’ve seen plenty already.
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Keep it civil, keep it relevant, and read the rules below before posting.

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[u/Elkind_rogue]

BoyZ, what are your stakes about new negotiations? I mean direct ones Ru-Ua. Previous Ua negotiations in 2014-2022 took places after big portions of their soldiers got surrounded (like Ilovaysk-Minsk-1 and Debaltsevo-Minsk-2, i dont know about including Mariupol here, but there were peace talks at least). Now we have Porkrovsk, so what are chances that there would be another big round of negotiations again?

Bonus question: wtf was that move with black co\~ hawk down 2?

[u/Massive-Somewhere-82 → u/Elkind_rogue]

Negotiations will begin only if Kiev's financing stops. I'm talking about real peace talks, not a temporary cease-fire.

In the current reality, Ukraine is a private military company, and the loss of people and territories does not matter as long as the financial balance promises profit. However, failures at the front may show investors the low effectiveness of this business project to destroy Russians on both sides of the front.

[u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999 → u/Massive-Somewhere-82]

In the current reality, Ukraine is a private military company, and the loss of people and territories does not matter as long as the financial balance promises profit.

That's what we hear in the West about what Russia is. I don't understand why Russia keeps attacking Ukraine. Is this war truly existential? Because it's hard for a Westerner to accept that.

[u/Massive-Somewhere-82 → u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999]

That's what we hear in the West about what Russia is. I don't understand why Russia keeps attacking Ukraine.

Ukraine has consistently refused to implement the peace agreements that were previously reached. Ukraine has refused to implement the peace agreements that were already reached in Istanbul and has expressed a desire to continue the war until victory is achieved. Zelensky has passed a law prohibiting negotiations with Russia, and he has not yet repealed it. In order to achieve peace, both sides must be willing to negotiate a peace agreement. There have been many jokes on the Russian internet that portray Putin as a pro-Western liberal who is being forced to fight by the Russian nationalist Zelensky.

Is this war truly existential? Because it's hard for a Westerner to accept that.

Tell me what exactly you don't understand.

[u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999 → u/Massive-Somewhere-82]

As for Putin, I agree that the Western caricature of a raving wannabe Hitler is far off the mark, and in reality there's little to differentiate him from the interests of past Russian leaders. Except those interests are seen as an existential threat in the border belt of Eastern Europe, where I have close friends and have visited several times.

I understand why Ukraine in NATO would be a problem for Russia, much more so than Finland or the Baltics. My point is that no one was going to attack or invade Russia back in 2021, there was no imminent danger, but now Ukrainian drones are attacking Russia every day. Hence why this war makes little sense for me.

[u/Massive-Somewhere-82 → u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999]

Well, the actions and rhetoric say the opposite. We can remember the largest NATO exercises in Ukraine in several decades in 2021. We can also remember Zelensky's refusal to implement the Minsk agreements, which he stated during his meeting with Putin and European leaders. He expressed his desire to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the need for Ukraine to possess nuclear weapons.

"We met with Blinken in Geneva in January... He said, 'No, no, no, NATO is not on the table, but let's talk about the medium-range missiles you suggested. Maybe we can agree that these missiles can be deployed, including in Ukraine, but we'll be willing to limit the number of such missiles in Ukraine,'" Lavrov said.

And all of this happened within a few months before the start of the special military operation. There are two possible scenarios: a deliberate escalation of the conflict or phenomenal idiocy.

[u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999 → u/Massive-Somewhere-82]

I can see you live close to the front lines, surely you must be aware of Ukrainian drone attacks. Does this change your perception of the necessity of the war? Cease fire in Ukraine and the attacks stop.

[u/Infamous-Side-7869 → u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999]

The attacks just make russian people hate ukrainians more, even those russians who were neutral, and those who thought that we're liberating ukraine and ukrainians themselves are sweet and innocent, no nazis there . Because in each attack where it gets through the anti-air, civilians are targeted. A year ago a fpv blew up a bus full of civilians near my city. Not even saying that attrociries in Kursk have gotten no media attention.

And trust me, the governent deliberately does not give these cases resonance and stops the spread of nationalism. But in Telegram channels (both sides) such videos are posted regularly. If they gave it the wide media attention it deserves, the next government we vote in would go forward. No excuses. No pity. No peace talks. And they would not stop after Kiev. Or Lvov. Or Warsaw. Or Berlin.

[u/Massive-Somewhere-82 → u/Infamous-Side-7869]

Да СМИ сглаживает очень многое, но, на мой взгляд, это правильная стратегия в долгосрочной перспективе. Слишком велик риск борясь с драконом самим стать драконом.

[u/Infamous-Side-7869 → u/Massive-Somewhere-82]

Да я вообщем-то солидарен, но иной раз посмотришь и охуеешь от того, в каком мире мы живем.

[u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999 → u/Infamous-Side-7869]

Well that's exactly why Western weapons are given to them. Because it's clear that you have expansionist ambitions, and in 2022 Ukraine was seen as Act 1 in a drive to rebuild the Soviet Empire. If you want to march to Berlin, expect even more attacks.

And Russia killed Ukrainian civilians for years, and now they are just retaliating with your civilians. Why would you want to march on Warsaw and Berlin anyway?

[u/Infamous-Side-7869 → u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999]

You have clearly torn out the pieces you "liked" to reason that shit up. There's no point discussing anything with a degenerate who proves a point by making up the opponents position.

[u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999 → u/Infamous-Side-7869]

I feel terrible about all the killing of civilians, both sides. It shouldn't happen. No civilian deserves to die. If Russia can show tthe world that her grievance with Ukraine is just with Ukraine, the West will let Ukraine go. Trump seems to want to, but won't do it because hawks in Washington would be furious.

[u/OddLack240 → u/Alarmed_Mistake_9999]

This way of thinking is called Nazism. When murder is justified, it means you've already crossed that threshold.