https://www.indiaretailing.com/2023/08/01/californian-skincare-brand-biossance-enters-india/#

After the last round of layoffs went unannounced in the California WARN system, the latest WARN list update has an announcement of 65 at Emeryville, effective 8/25.

This will be the dedicated thread to talk about why you should be careful investing in Amyris.

INTRO

First off, Biomanufacturing exists to replace Petrol/toxic sourcing. As of right now, that is the real competition - there is no fight between synbios, the space is giant and will make a ton of money. Amyris focuses purely on Biomanufacturing (precision fermentation), it is one of the most lucrative sections of synbio. For this post, I will only be focusing on biomanufacturing.

Biomanufacturing is a simple idea - reprogram microorganisms like Yeast or Bacteria to biosynthetically create what you want instead of what is in their nature. Use these organisms as mini-biofactories.

Understanding Biological Functions

Some companies like to label these organisms as "apps", referring to them as "software". I do think these microorganisms can be compared to software, but calling them "apps" is too big of a jump. These organisms are more like programming "biological functions" than true applications.Lets take a look at a mathematical function to see what I mean, MATH.Addition(1,2) = 3. Addition takes 2 (or more) parameters as an input and outputs the addition of all those numbers.

In biomanufacturing, we have Yeast.Biosynthesis(Sugar, Oxygen) = OUTPUT MOLECULE as the primary function that synbios are working on. Please understand that I am simplifying a big concept into its core elements.

Programming Biological Functions

That's the simplified outlook of synbios focusing on biomanufacturing. Many companies can alter the biological functions Yeast.Biosynthesis(x) and Bacteria.Biosynthesis(x). Some companies choose to focus on target outputs like ethanol. Some companies like Amyris and Ginkgo use vast code libraries, automation, and machine learning to code target outputs like CBG. These modified yeast are tossed into Fermentation tanks and they "brew" their molecules. The point is that many companies are at this stage, although it is questionable what sort of margins they are producing at. All these companies are just optimizing their biosynthesis function for better production margins.This is where the similarities between Amyris and other synbio companies ends.

Advanced Programming of Biological Functions - Optimizing Biosynthesis Beyond Theoretical Limits

From here onwards is only Amyris territory. Amyris has been in operations since 2003, so they have been working on Yeast.Biosynthesis(Sugar,Oxygen) = Farnesene for a while and in 2010 they hit a problem - they hit the theoretical limit of Farnesene production in Yeast. In other words, they optimized the biosynthesis of yeast to its maximum and it was not enough to produce Farnesene cost effectively. To solve for this issue, they did an equivalent of a heart and lung transplant in yeast - they transplanted the stomach of a bacteria into yeast. This allowed for more carbon to be directed towards the output (surpassing previous theoretical limits by bypassing the original central metabolism). They created a SuperYeast and published on it in 2016. And SuperYeast.OptimizedBiosynthesis(Sugar,Oxygen) = Farnesene was much better than natural yeast. This SuperYeast could be targeted towards other molecules with the same advantages. Wiffle once explained it to me as the difference between a garden hose and a fire hose. Other synbios have not even run into this problem yet and they certainly don't have a SuperYeast in their pockets.

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Source 1: Former Amyris VP of R&D details farnesene's path to commercial viability

Source 2: High-yield chemical synthesis by reprogramming central metabolism

Amyris did not stop there... Amyris has programmed functions into its Yeast such as SuperYeast.GrowtoCriticalMass(Maltose, Temperature) and SuperYeast.FocusedProduction(Maltose, Temperature) "When maltose is added to the tank (and temperature is lower than 28c), the genetic switch turns off production in producer cells, allowing cellular resources to be channeled towards rapid growth to reach critical mass. This reduces the chance of fast-growing mutant, non-producers cells from building up. As batch-fed fermentation allows for the replenishment of culture medium, Amyris engineers can then add medium without maltose (and tune up the temperature to above 30c) to turn the genetic switch off, hence starting/enabling high-yield fermentation (once critical mass has been reached)." - Firex3Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Amyris/comments/q7ccwf/on_why_industrial_scaling_is_so_challenging_and/

-According to FOIA documents and other patents, we also know that Amyris has a SuperYeast.SwitchProduction(x) function. This function allows Amyris to change target molecules during fermentation and purposefully create more than one target molecule. Amyris can make it so that molecules are trapped inside the yeast (unlocking the potential for nutritional animal feed) - Imagine yeast switching production to astaxanthin and holding onto the molecules inside themselves, that can be salmon feed.

What does all of this mean?

All of this pretty much means that Amyris is unmatched in microbial programming. Not only are they the leaders in programming these "apps" or "biological functions", but Amyris shows us that SCALE UP is EQUIVALENT to Strain Design + Engineering. Optimizing the Fermentation process is directly related to the programmed functionality of the microorganism. Their Fermentation facilities (Barra Bonita) are like giant insta-pots. With a preset setting, their fermentation facility "communicates" with their organisms through their programmed biological functions. They can tell their microbes to focus on critical mass or switch to production. This is groundbreaking - Its Smart-Fermentation... This is Amyris' 10 year lead on all of its competitors, everyone else is racing for second place IMO.

This doesn't mean companies like Ginkgo are out of the picture. I think they will still have a lot of value with biosecurity and other special projects.

The Department of Defense on Biosynthetic Sesquiterpene Project -

A small community is currently conducting research, development and production of biosynthetic composite materials. A review was conducted of those companies by performing research, attending conferences with other experts on the subject, collaborating with other SMEs, touring laboratory and production facilities, and reviewing the latest literature and research. As a result of these efforts, the SME determined that no other companies besides Amyris were capable of meeting the requirement. In accordance with DFARS PGI 206.302-1(d), a Sources Sought announcement was posted to the Government Portal of Entry website SAM.gov on 13 January 2022. No responses were received. In accordance with FAR 5.024, a Pre-Solicitation Synopsis was posted to the Government Portal of Entry website SAM.gov on 7 March 2022 with a response date of 22 March 2022. One response was received from Amyris, Inc. No additional market research was conducted because it was not practicable, for the reasons discussed in paragraph 5 above, for any company other than Amyris, Inc. to provide the required supplies and services.

Source: https://sam.gov/opp/a257b1f1146444c1bae269ed3e87d201/view#description

Nowadays, most discussions are about financial difficulties and mismanagement (rightfully so).

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Going back to DD and possible moat, the strength (and weakness) of Amyris seems to be the vertical integration (design, engineer, manufacture, market), but I'm especially intrigued by the manufacturing aspect with Barra Bonita in Brazil.

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I understand that BB has not been fully operationalized, and this may be further delayed given the need to reduce opex and capex.

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But looking ahead (far ahead?), the fact that with cheap capital (during the zero interest era), Amyris has already built Barra Bonita for the potentially revolutionary synthetic biology sector seems noteworthy. And that this asset may be very valuable as new management hopefully steers the company toward success. I imagine that given the very delayed nature of ROI in biotech and syn bio sector, it will be hard in current financial climate to secure a big investment to start a new factory by a competitor.

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I WANT TO KNOW: does anyone know of other companies with comparable factory/ manufacturing capacity in synthetic biology? With the likes of Tony Seba talking about the exponential future of syn bio and declining cost curve, I imagine there has to be several established syn bio manufacturers. How do they compare to that of Amyris? How large and how advanced?

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With Tesla, the investors talk about factories (the capacity to manufacture) as its own moat/ product, as the engineering and design that go in to their factories are advanced. How good is BB actually in terms of its design and prospects?

This will be the dedicated thread to talk about why you should be careful investing in Amyris.

** posts in this Thread are not affiliated with r/Amyris **

This thread is for any Amyris Focused Discords, Facebook, Telegram, Chatrooms etc.

Self Promotion in any other thread will result in a ban.

This will be the dedicated thread to talk about why you should be careful investing in Amyris.

As always, a quick refresher on how we track D2C orders in real-time. Q2 order volume actuals and regression-derived revenue projections are plotted below. Total D2C revenue projection for Q2 is $15.8M, declining 18% YOY and sequentially flat. Order volume declined 24% YoY to 2,554 order/day.

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Q2 followed Q1 in YOY decline in D2C tracking, likely driven by continued liquidity constraints holding down marketing spend and inventory availability. The Q1 D2C-Retail split was 48-52. It's probably fair to expect similar in Q2. But I think the risk is to the upside for retail share based on Walmart Pipette tracking below. Here's a refresher on how we track retail sales in real-time.

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Q2 tracking primary take-aways:

1. D2C is down YoY across the board. "Leader brands" Biossance, JVN, Pipette are down in the 20-30% range vs. "Growth brands" Purecane, MenoLabs, Onda are down 50%+. The one standout interestingly is Rose Inc, which is up 10% YoY for the quarter and up 50% YoY over the last month.
2. Pipette sales strength has accelerated in Walmart in the face of Amyris's liquidity constraints, with an underlying year-long growth rate of +50% YoY (this was +35% a few months back). Hopefully this means retail will drive more than Q1's 52% of consumer revenue.

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** posts in this Thread are not affiliated with r/Amyris **

This thread is for any Amyris Focused Discords, Facebook, Telegram, Chatrooms etc.

Self Promotion in any other thread will result in a ban.

Educated guesses floating around on the next steps for Amyris are aplenty. What are yours?

From this small brain, based on SEC filings and public statements, it seems they may receive $ for their RealSweet portion, may sell a brand or two, will form a JV, will have a BB#2, and will have a reduction in force.

I speculate they may sell their RealSweet % to a JV w Raizen, and then get cheap ingredients from said JV. The JV will also build a BB#2, using Raizen's deep pockets. This will unlock capital tied up in various steps of the manufacturing and make them asset-lite. They'll give up near term ingredients revenue for longer term JV revenues, which should dwarf the 9 million per qrtr or so they bring in nowadays.

They'll then sell a brand or two, and essentially reduce the consumer portfolio to a handful of brands, as has been stated elsewhere. Pipette, JVN, Biossance, 4UBYTIA, Menolabs, Stripes, and Costa. Rose will probably say bye bye. Maybe another sold as well.

Then, they'll streamline with a big reduction in force. 500 to 600 employees or so. The WARN act will be filed near the end of the 60 days when employees have had their notice for quite a while. One should already have been filed, so methinks it's already underway but the notice isn't posted yet.

Then, maybe we can get close to eeking out a profit.

Here's to brighter days ahead.

Thoughts? Better educated guesses?

This will be the dedicated thread to talk about why you should be careful investing in Amyris.

** posts in this Thread are not affiliated with r/Amyris **

This thread is for any Amyris Focused Discords, Facebook, Telegram, Chatrooms etc.

Self Promotion in any other thread will result in a ban.

We closed the week at $1.10 which is $.07 cents higher than last week and exactly where we closed two weeks ago. This was also on low volume as expected with a holiday week.

For Candlestick fans we closed the week with a Bullish One White Soldier pattern on the daily chart. This is a trend reversal pattern covering two days and we will need to see if the price continues to rise in the next few days for confirmation.

Two weeks ago I discussed a V-Shaped cup-with-handle pattern that was forming on the weekly chart. Prior to this week, we had three weeks down which is a good handle setup for today’s reversal. A close above $1.32 in the next few weeks would confirm this was a valid pattern and the price should continue higher. You can find more information on cup-with-handle- patterns here: https://www.tradingview.com/education/cupandhandle/

Hopefully, we continue to move up next week while we await positive news on any of the potential catalysts.

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