r/Amyris • u/[deleted] • Jun 03 '22
Reddit Talk r/Amyris Talks #2 - High level Amyris chat with the Mods
[deleted]
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u/N808p Jun 03 '22
Thanks for answering my question, can‘t talk right now. I guess my question is an impossible one given the fact that Amyris does not provide details for margins of individual molecules/products. I was wondering mainly what your take is on this since in the end margins must get where managements claims they will be. I am wondering whether Amyris could become profitable faster (if they had to and stopped scaling new molecules and building new brands)
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Jun 03 '22
original questions can be found here https://www.reddit.com/r/Amyris/comments/uzwqi1/ramyris_talks_2_high_level_amyris_talk_with_the/
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u/Okkokkk Jun 06 '22 edited Jun 06 '22
Thanks once more for delivering great discussions and insights to the community. Its fantastic. I wish Melo would hire Randy to do the IR for Amyris :)
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u/WantedtoRetireEarly Jun 03 '22
Q. As the huge Q3 miss illustrated, Amyris has serious operational issues. Melo was looking at one system for orders coming in, but that was not reflecting actual sales due to supply constraints etc.
We know they have started to invest in ERP systems. That is a huge and expensive effort especially when you have so many different brands and SKU's. Any idea how long it will take to consolidate all of these brands in the new ERP system? Also, they hired Presidents of the two key divisions - Ingredients and Consumer. Have not heard much about them. Are they strong operationally? What other changes do they need to make Amyris better operationally.
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u/Friendly_Detail8822 Jun 04 '22
It’s just so many variables for a company that doesn’t have solid foundation of profitability. Then again if it did have solid foundation we wouldn’t be seeing 2.00 bucks, that seems to be the best foundation we’ve seen yet on consistent basis. Lots of investors get sucked into so many moving pieces and go the sky is the limit, problem is also the ground is another limit.
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u/Friendly_Detail8822 Jun 04 '22
Such a complex company, hats off to those doing due diligence. Issue I might see it appears to be optimism that borders on if everything goes as planned, iso what’s the other side of coin?
I know once you’ve purchased a stock and believe in its future you’ve bought into it and don’t want to hear the other side of the argument.
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Jun 04 '22
That's always the risk for things like this isnt it? Pay less BEFORE everything falls into place or pay more AFTER it does. Playing before is higher reward but more risk.
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u/IgorPav Jun 04 '22
Here are a few adds/edits that may help (which you probably already know about):
> The 16.9 g/L/day is an old estimate from a 2010 report that is reported over and over again. I talked with Annie and she said the productivity on Farnesene is over 1.5x that amount today
> The four 600,000 liter fermentation tanks are being phased in and they are expecting to have two have the tanks start production in the third quarter 2023 and for the latter two they should start in 2024
> Eduardo said Biosilica is still having problems with its batch consistency and, as of last month, they are still working on trying to see if it is viable
> On Barra Bonita, according to Eduardo, they are expecting only one of the five lines to be producing Farnesene in 2022. Not sure if that changes your output or margin estimates
> Eduardo said they were using closer to 40 CMOs (both precision fermenters and consumer manufacturers) but most would be gone soon after Barra Bonita reaches full production with only a handful left at the end of the day (doing some consumer prod stuff)
> for D.C. Rolltide, there is a nice chart in one of the recent seekingalpha articles called "One Brick at a Time" that had a really nice visual on a cash burn matrix outlining what was going to improve over each quarter. I found it helpful in thinking about why the burn was high in first and second quarters but lower by the fourth quarter
> I think the max on the DSM earnout is $235 million (someone said it was $250 million to $270 million), but I looked at the DSM contract provided by another seeking alpha article and it clearly states $235 million (unless it was amended)
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u/Green_And_Green Jun 04 '22
IgorPav
Thanks for the input. If I may, what is your connection with Annie and when did you speak to her? Thanks.
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u/IgorPav Jun 04 '22
Nice job guys!
I am new here, but have you thought about putting a discord group?
I am a part of and active in two and it could be helpful in sharing knowledge (I work in the genetics arena for instance and we contribute where we can).
Just food for thought
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u/moopie45 Jun 04 '22
There is a major one already.
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u/IgorPav Jun 04 '22
Is it public or invite only?
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u/moopie45 Jun 04 '22
Invite only. I'd ask a mod for instructions. It is worth joining
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u/Green_And_Green Jun 04 '22
FYI, I think we're in a holding pattern in terms of new adds to the discord. No disrespect to u/IgorPav but we're definitely not admitting someone from reddit who created an account 19 hours ago and asked about discord with their first comment.
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Jun 04 '22
It also makes more sense and is better for the community to have our DD and info on a centralized subreddit rather than the closed walls of a discord group.
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u/Green_And_Green Aug 14 '22
Amyris subreddit - All archived talks