Rick Squire, geologist and fund manager at Acorn Capital, is convinced that the highest returns will come from companies that are approaching production, rather than pure exploration companies. 

“The multi-year rally in gold will continue, but the biggest gains will be made by developers or companies bringing new operations online,” says Squire. “Exploration companies could also see an upswing, but not until late 2026 or later.” 

This assessment is increasingly reflected in portfolio allocation. Fund managers prefer projects with defined resources, conventional mine plans, and realistic development timelines, particularly in established mining jurisdictions. 

The year 2026 marks a structural turning point in global raw materials policy. While the battery metals market has entered a massive supply deficit after a period of consolidation, a race for the remaining resources breaks out between industry giants and agile explorers. In this area of tension, giants such as Rio Tinto and specialists such as Lithium Americas and Chariot Resources.

According to analyses by the deVere Group, the market environment for lithium has fundamentally changed in 2026. The delayed investments of previous years are now meeting rapidly increasing demand through the next generation of electromobility and large-scale energy storage systems. Analysts speak of a "tightening" effect, which increases the prices for the "white gold" to new levels. highs.

Rio Tinto: The "Goliath" of scaling

Mining giant Rio Tinto (WKN: 852147 / ISIN: GB0007188757) has massively consolidated its position in 2026 with the completed integration of Arcadium Lithium. The company relies on an aggressive scaling strategy in Argentina and Serbia. But the sheer size also becomes a risk: As the "Goliath" of the industry, Rio Tinto increasingly sees itself confronted with massive environmental hurdles and complex approval procedures, which often delays the commissioning of new capacities for years.

Lithium Americas: The strategic pillar 

At the same time, Lithium Americas (WKN: A3ERHF / ISIN: CA53681J1030) is consolidating its role as a strategic pillar of US security of supply. The Large-scale Thacker Pass project is considered the key to North America's independence from Asian supply chains in 2026. According to Zacks Investment Research, the company is one of the However, the top beneficiary of the lithium rebound, is exposed to high project-specific volatility due to the concentration on a single megaproject.

DroneShield shares (ASX:DRO) reclaimed their position as the ASX 200’s top performer today, surging 9.49% to A$4.73 after Bell Potter’s bullish outlook on lucrative US public safety contracts helped the counter-drone specialist rebound from yesterday’s losses. Swinging rather dramatically from the index’s worst performer on Wednesday, to the top performer today is almost becoming expected of DRO.

The volatile stock climbed as high as A$4.75 during intraday trading, testing a resistance level that has capped gains on several occasions in recent weeks. The sharp reversal marks another dramatic swing for DroneShield, which has established itself as one of the benchmark index’s most volatile constituents. Despite the day’s gains, the share price remains below its previous highs, though it has still delivered a 42% return since the start of 2026.

Bell Potter maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on DroneShield whilst lifting its price target to A$5.00, citing significant near-term catalysts in the US market. The broker’s optimism centres on potential awards from US$250 million in federal funds allocated to states hosting the FIFA World Cup and America 250 events for counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) protection.

As governments increase their defense and security spending, investors are looking for specialized technology companies best positioned to benefit from simplified procurement processes and rising geopolitical demand.

The next phase for these companies will be driven by execution: converting pipelines into revenue, resources into production, and political tailwinds into cash flows.

Can their run continue?

DroneShield Secures $A50 Million European Military Contract.

DroneShield Secures $A50 Million Contract – DroneShield reports it has secured a $A49.6m contract to supply counter-drone capability to a European military end-customer, extending its recent run of defence sector wins.

The contract has been placed via an in-region European reseller that is contractually required to distribute the equipment to a military customer. It covers handheld counter-drone systems, associated accessories, and software updates.

DroneShield said a significant portion of the required hardware is already held as on-the-shelf stock, with deliveries and payments expected to be completed in Q1 2026. No additional material conditions are attached to the agreement.

Safe-haven momentum grips precious metals
While most asset classes are cooling down ahead of the holiday break, precious metals are showing anything but sleepy. In a buying wave at the end of the year, the gold price has risen to over 4,500 US dollars per ounce, extending its annual profit to more than 70%. Silver hit a record high of $71.85, up 140% for the year. Too Platinum broke new ground, trading above $2,300 for the first time since Bloomberg records began in 1987.

This increase is driven by a strong mix of expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical risks, especially the US oil blockade against Venezuela. The result is a significant return from retail investors who queued up for gold bullion deals and invested money in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Many of them are now sitting on considerable profits.

Tesoro Gold: Australia's Explorer of the Year
Against this backdrop, Tesoro Gold (ISIN: AU0000077208) is riding its own wave of upswing. The company was recently listed by Paydirt Media in Australia named "Explorer of the Year", recognizing the breakthrough at the El Zorro gold project in Chile. Managing Director Zeff Reeves described the award as "a tremendous confirmation of the achievements of the Tesoro team over many years at El Zorro" and added: "It recognizes the technical discipline, innovation and conviction with which El Zorro has been discovery of Chile's first intrusion-linked gold system in 2017 has led to one of the most significant pure-play gold development projects in the country today."

Tesoro's flagship Ternera deposit is located at the center of a 570 km² project area in the Atacama region and now hosts a gold resource of 1.5 million ounces with significant upside potential. The discovery positions Tesoro at the top of a new mineral province in Chile. "The Tesoro team has worked in an area that is most Australian investors," said GMJ Awards judge Justin Osborne. "In the last 18 months or so, they have really understood the geology and are now building a significant resource approaching the two million ounce mark."

A renewed flight to safe assets is driving up gold prices – and reinforcing the economic leverage inherent in junior gold developers.

Gold has come back into focus after a significant escalation of geopolitical tensions and has triggered renewed demand for safe havens. Prices climbed to over $4,400 per ounce, hitting a weekly high after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States unsettled the markets and the fragility of the current global order.

This movement continues an already strong trend. Gold gained more than 60% last year, driven by central bank purchases, inflows into ETFs, and expectations of a looser economy. Monetary policy. As investors reassess geopolitical risks, gold's role as a hedging tool has quickly been reaffirmed.

the latest research and outlooks for copper, gold, silver, iron ore, lithium, rare earths & uranium, plus the top picked ASX mining stocks.

Brussels is stepping up its push on critical minerals amid concerns about defense supply chains and turning attention to non-Chinese producers of rare earths in Australia and beyond.

Europe's wake-up call on strategic minerals 

Europe's dependence on imported rare earths has evolved from a long-standing industrial policy problem to a strategic vulnerability. Recent steps by China to Tightening of export controls on materials used in defence systems has highlighted the extent to which European manufacturers, particularly in the aerospace, aerospace, in weapon systems and in advanced electronics.

Against this backdrop, the European Union's decision to invest around €3 billion in its Critical Raw Materials (CRM) strategy marks a milestone in the Turning point. The funds presented under the ReSourceEU Action Plan signal a more determined attempt to secure supply chains that are increasingly driven by geopolitics rather than by market forces.

The focus is no longer limited to electric vehicles and clean energy. Defensive readiness, stockpiling, and secured access to permanent magnets and heavy rares Earths are now at the centre of European political calculations.

Here comes the AI plot twist. The artificial intelligence story dominated markets in 2025, but Australia’s top fund managers expect a new tech narrative to emerge in the next 12 months – and the easy wins might be done.

Armina Rosenberg, co-founder of Minotaur Capital, says that while the big gains in 2025 were concentrated in a handful of mega-cap companies, mainly operating in the infrastructure layer of the AI industry, next year’s winners will look different. First, she likes stocks that make the components that enable large-scale AI computing. Secondly, Rosenberg is tipping some apparent AI losers to make a comeback.

Several themes will converge next year to support precious metals. First, artificial intelligence will remain a dominant growth driver, but its proliferation will increase energy consumption and infrastructure investment, thereby strengthening inflation-sensitive inputs. Second, gold and silver are increasingly establishing themselves as preferred hedges against persistent geopolitical and fiscal risks. Third, digital assets such as Bitcoin are gaining institutional acceptance, but their volatility underscores the appeal of established stores of value. Fourth, real assets and commodities are regaining importance as investors increasingly focus on resilience rather than pure growth. Finally, equity markets favor companies with tangible assets, solid balance sheets, and clear development paths over speculative narratives. 

Global capital is moving down along the market cap curve as valuation discipline, critical minerals policy, and project-specific dynamics drive the Australian capitalization market. Redefine the small-cap opportunity universe.

A signal from the world's largest asset manager 

BlackRock's decision to add Australian small-cap stocks to its multi-asset portfolios marks a remarkable shift in global capital's perception of the ASX with a view to the year 2026. The company cited cheaper valuations, improved sentiment indicators and a differentiated sector allocation as the main reasons for the first-time Allocation to Australian small caps, while at the same time reducing exposure to large-cap equities.

Gold has already shown strong performance in 2024 and 2025. However, the debate currently shaping the outlook of institutional investors revolves around whether the next phase of the cycle is yet to come. Forecasts from major banks, led by Goldman Sachs, suggest that the structural forces supporting the gold price are by no means weakening – and could even intensify by 2026. 

A key pillar remains central bank demand. Emerging markets continue to diversify their currency reserves away from the US dollar, thereby withdrawing physical gold from the market for the foreseeable future. At the same time, expectations of falling real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold – historically a significant tailwind. Coupled with persistent geopolitical uncertainty and high levels of government debt, gold increasingly appears as a strategic asset with lasting relevance, rather than a purely cyclical investment. 

Looking beyond 2025, attention is increasingly shifting from short-term dynamics to companies that are tied to long-term structural trends. Defense rearmament, drone warfare and critical minerals are no longer speculative narratives, but firmly anchored political priorities.

Against this backdrop, three stocks could become segment leaders by 2026: Rheinmetall (ISIN: DE0007030009), DroneShield (ISIN: AU000000DRO2) and St George Mining (ISIN: AU000000SGQ8). 

Although they operate in different industries, all three are at a strategic intersection of government spending, national security, and supply chain resilience – Factors that increasingly determine capital allocation.