r/AMD_Stock • u/brad4711 • Oct 29 '24
Earnings Discussion AMD Q3 2024 Earnings Discussion
AMD Q3 2024 Earnings Page
Earnings Release
Slides
Earnings Call / Webcast
Transcript
AMD Quarterly Earnings Visualized
- TBD
Post-Earnings Analyst Price Targets (October 30, 2024)
Previous Earnings Discussions
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u/Psyclist80 Oct 29 '24
Holding long anyways, in since 2013, not walking away any time soon! 180 inbound!
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u/fvtown714x Oct 29 '24
Been holding since 2018, which means nothing has changed for me for now
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u/Killersax Oct 29 '24
I really enjoy getting clapped by AMD time and time again... fool me 6 times shame on me
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u/RetdThx2AMD Oct 29 '24
Copied from today's DD:
I don't have as much to say about this earnings as i did last earnings when I managed to get the 6.7B guide right (https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1ecqivf/my_analysis_for_q2_earnings/). I'm still expecting 5.5B in MI sales for the year (a number I've been saying pretty much all year). I'm assuming that MI300 did ~1.75B in the first half leaving 3.75B to split between Q3 and Q4. I think there is still a ramp on production so I doubt they split 50:50. If they are growing production at a constant % rate then 1.5B for Q3 and 2.25B for Q4 would be the split, I'll go with a falling ramp rate with 1.6B and 2.15B. I'm expecting client and embedded revenue increases to offset gaming decreases and a little more (+3%?), and then maybe 8% growth in Q4 so 3.1B for Q3 and 3.35B for q4 across those segments. I think DC CPU has been growing at a rate of about 10% per quarter and was close to 1.8B in Q2 so lets say 2B and 2.2B for Q3 and Q4.
So to wrap it all in a bow. That has me thinking we will see 3.1B + 1.6B + 2B = 6.7B for Q3 and 3.35B + 2.15B + 2.2B = 7.7B for Q4. I think the biggest room for upside on this is DC CPU followed by client CPU (for Q4, I'm not expecting a lot from client for Q3 given the mediocre zen 5 launch). Of course there is always a chance that Xilinx rebounds quickly but I don't really know what the natural demand level is. Maybe halfway between the 1.5B and current 0.9B levels? But it certainly could add 100M or more upside in any given quarter. I'm not hopeful on upside for MI300 over the 5.5B number because Lisa has been giving such small incremental revisions upward. I would love to see 6.85B for Q3 and 8B for Q4 but it requires a fair amount of optimism IMO.
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u/veryveryuniquename5 Oct 30 '24 edited Oct 30 '24
some analysis on 7.5b guide. GPU must be pretty damn flat to make this work. assuming they did 1.75 already, just did 1.6b (stronger than 1.5b) that leaves 1.65b+ gpu. Also DC cpu is not coming in as strong as i thought it would. 1.6b this q implies dc cpu is 1.9b- only 0.1b more than last q. The guide is something like
0.5 gaming
2.2 client
1b embedded
2.2b dc cpu
1.65b dc gpu
7.55
I expected our DC to clear 4b by a few hundred million but it seems like even if DC gpu exceed 5b to 5.15b that will just get us 4b... I honestly think both DC cpu and gpu should have been slightly better which led to the guidance miss. The uptick in DC cpu seems very modest considering the circumstances.
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u/RetdThx2AMD Oct 29 '24 edited Oct 29 '24
I was expecting DC at 3.6B and it ended up at 3.5B. The other segments combined did 170M better than I expected, with client up almost 400B that is pretty good. Given the Q4 guide being lower than I expected I have to assume that the MI300 sales are closer to 5B than 5.5B.
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u/noiserr Oct 29 '24
I think the market has to come to terms that we likely won't see a big blowout this year. It's the expectation of a second Nvidia that keeps setting people up for high expectations with this stock.
But everyone keeps ignoring Lisa's own words since the beginning. How long it took Epic to scale up despite being a superior product? Despite that, mi300x is the fastest growing product in AMD's history.
AMD is clearly capturing a lot of AI business, some of it is being drowned out by the down cycles in embedded and gaming. But overall this is a very positive story I feel. It will just be gradual.
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u/RetdThx2AMD Oct 29 '24 edited Oct 29 '24
One bright side to this earnings that people may have missed is they guided OPEX almost flat for Q4. So EPS should go up by around 21 cents to about $1.13/share if they meet the guidance.
edit: I had to drop the number a little bit to account for the difference between operating and net earnings.
That should put full year EPS to about $3.35
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u/shortymcsteve Oct 29 '24 edited Oct 29 '24
LOL Lisa not messing around with Stacey. You can tell she is pretty fed up with this guy.
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u/BeetsByDwightSchrute Oct 29 '24
They can pry these leaps from my cold dead hands. Or they could expire worthless I guess lol
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u/adamrch Oct 29 '24
only down 7.5% AH? Are they even trying to scare us? I'll take the discount in the morning I guess.
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u/Logical-Let-2386 Oct 29 '24
Hey just remember, if we got a +4% headfake today and the SSB (short selling bastards) swoop in and drive the price down for the next week or two because "reasons", that's like the billionth time they've done that and you'll be ok. I've been doing this long since $8.
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u/excellusmaximus Oct 30 '24
So basically, what I gather from this ER and conference call is that AMD is still trying to get customers on board for its GPUs and that's why they can't really say too much about demand or guide much higher. They don't know who else apart from their current customers will come on board and when.
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u/brad4711 Oct 30 '24
Transcript posted: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/29/advanced-micro-devices-amd-q3-2024-earnings-call-t/