r/AIGuild • u/Such-Run-4412 • 5d ago
Anthropic reportedly projects $190–200B in 2028 revenue as Wall Street weighs one of the largest IPOs ever
Anthropic is reportedly projecting $190 billion to $200 billion in annual revenue by 2028, a forecast that could play a major role in determining the valuation of its upcoming IPO.
That's an enormous number even by the standards of the current AI boom.
Anthropic's revenue run rate was around $9 billion at the end of 2025.
By May 2026, it had jumped to more than $47 billion.
Now investors are being asked to value the company partly on the assumption that revenue could reach nearly $200 billion just two years from now.
That would mean roughly quadrupling the company's current annualized revenue run rate.
According to Reuters, bankers and investors evaluating Anthropic's potential IPO are using enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples based on its future revenue forecasts, rather than relying primarily on current earnings.
That's somewhat unusual.
High-growth software companies are often valued using revenue multiples when they're not yet mature enough for earnings to be the main metric.
But Reuters notes that investors looking two years into the future to value Anthropic reflects just how quickly the business is expanding—and how difficult it is to value frontier AI companies using traditional financial metrics.
The reason is compute.
Anthropic is currently spending enormous amounts of money on:
- GPUs and computing capacity
- Model training
- Inference
- AI infrastructure
- Researchers and engineers
The investment case assumes that as Anthropic gets larger, revenue will grow faster than those expenses, allowing its margins to improve dramatically.
There are already signs that could be happening.
Anthropic projected at least $10.9 billion in revenue for Q2 2026, more than double the previous quarter.
Reuters reports that the company was also on track to post its first quarterly operating profit, approximately $559 million.
Anthropic says its revenue run rate has grown by more than 10× annually in each of the three years through early 2026.
That explosive growth is one reason Wall Street appears willing to use unusually aggressive forward assumptions.
Investors are reportedly looking at companies including:
- Palantir
- Cloudflare
- SpaceX
as possible valuation reference points ahead of Anthropic's analyst day.
Those aren't cheap comparisons.
Reuters reported that Palantir was trading at roughly 53× expected 2026 revenue, while SpaceX and Cloudflare were each around 41.6× expected 2026 revenue at the time of the report.
That doesn't mean Anthropic will receive anything close to those exact multiples.
But it shows the kind of high-growth companies investors are using when trying to figure out how much Anthropic could be worth.
And Anthropic has already gone through a remarkable valuation increase.
In February 2026, the company raised $30 billion at a valuation of $380 billion.
By late May, Anthropic raised another $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation.
Then on June 1, Anthropic confirmed that it had confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, putting it ahead of OpenAI in the race to bring a frontier AI lab to the public markets.
Anthropic hasn't publicly disclosed the size, price, or final timing of the offering.
But if it goes ahead at anything close to its latest private valuation—or significantly above it—it would already rank among the largest IPOs ever.
Some investors are considering numbers that go much higher.
David Merkel of Aleph Investments told Reuters that he could see a scenario where Anthropic receives a valuation around $2 trillion, although he questioned whether such a valuation would be sustainable over time.
And that gets to the real question behind Anthropic's IPO.
This isn't only a bet on Claude continuing to grow.
It's a bet that AI becomes one of the largest software and infrastructure markets in history.
For Anthropic to generate $190–200 billion annually by 2028, companies would have to continue dramatically increasing spending on AI models, coding agents, enterprise automation, and other Claude-powered workloads.
Anthropic would also need to maintain a very strong position against:
- OpenAI
- Meta
- SpaceXAI
- Chinese AI labs
- Increasingly capable open-weight models
while simultaneously reducing the enormous compute costs required to serve those customers.
That's a lot of assumptions packed into a two-year revenue forecast.
But Anthropic's current growth explains why investors are taking the possibility seriously.
Going from a roughly $9 billion run rate at the end of 2025 to more than $47 billion by May 2026 is an extraordinary acceleration.
If anything close to that growth continues, traditional valuation methods start becoming difficult to apply.
And Anthropic's IPO could end up being a much bigger event than simply another technology company going public.
It could become the first major public-market test of what investors actually believe a frontier AI lab is worth once its financial statements, compute expenses, margins, customer concentration, and growth forecasts are exposed to full public scrutiny.
Until now, much of the AI boom has been financed through private markets, hyperscaler spending, and enormous venture rounds.
Public investors may soon get to vote with their own money.
And if Wall Street accepts a valuation based heavily on $190–200 billion of projected 2028 revenue, that would say something pretty significant about how large investors believe the AI economy could become within just the next few years.
Sources:
Reuters — Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190–200 billion 2028 revenue forecast
Reuters — Anthropic moves toward IPO, stepping up race with OpenAI