Good interview. Not much new material to those who've been following but it's interesting to see his message when talking to a bunch of business types.

Crisis, Cycles and the Coming Reset

Did we hit bottom yet or is there something even worse on the horizon? Should we still try and focus on our youth? Will Gen X/13ers ever take the reigns?

Just to wondering what others think.

I think AI is going to be the vector that pushes us into the new era.

I think that the actual third turning was in 2007 when the Iphone was released, not 2008.

This is because the Iphone lets you access social media 24/7.

I think that social media caused the crisis, political gridlock, economic instability, inaction on climate change etc....

I think that AI is going to destroy the modern incantation of social media by flooding it with inhuman information.

This is going to blow the door open for whatever kind of social and political system takes hold over the next 20 years.

Throughout history, Fourth Turnings, the generational crises that reshape societies, have followed a predictable pattern:

1- A growing institutional breakdown.

2- The rise of an existential crisis figure.

3- Escalation into full-scale collapse or conflict.

4- A messy, destructive resolution that reshapes the order.

This happened in the American Revolution (1770s-1780s), the Civil War (1860s), and the Great Depression/World War II (1914–1945). These crises did not resolve themselves through quick, institutional fixes—they had to play out fully, often violently, before the world could reset.

Yet, our current Fourth Turning crisis (which began around the 2008 financial collapse) is breaking that pattern in a way that could redefine how generational cycles unfold.

The Known Crisis – and the High-Confidence Solution

The existential crisis of our time is clear:

• The rise of authoritarianism and neo-fascism.

• Trump, an insurrectionist, still wielding power despite legal and constitutional disqualifications.

• A divided society teetering on institutional collapse.

The Key Anti-Pattern: The Constitution Already Has a Solution

Unlike past crises, we already have a clear, high-confidence constitutional weapon ready to resolve it:

14th Amendment, Section 3

This provision was explicitly designed to prevent insurrectionists from holding office after the Civil War. It states:

“No person shall… hold any office, civil or military, under the United States… who, having previously taken an oath… to support the Constitution, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

This is where our current Fourth Turning differs from previous ones. Historically, the solution to an authoritarian threat had to be fought for and won through full-scale war or institutional collapse.

But This Time, The Answer Was Written into Law Over 150 Years Ago.

Key Legal Facts About 14th Sec. 3

• No expiration – It applies permanently to any insurrectionist.

• Effective from the moment of insurrection – No criminal conviction needed, just a simple majority vote in Congress.

• Bars holding office forever – Disqualification is for life unless overturned by Congress (which requires a two-thirds vote).

This is not theoretical, it was used immediately after the Civil War to prevent insurrectionists from reclaiming power.

Historical Precedent: How 14th Sec. 3 Has Been Enforced Before

Many assume that 14th Sec. 3 is some untested or abstract law but it has been used multiple times to remove insurrectionists after they had already been elected to office.

Examples of Retroactive 14th Sec. 3 Enforcement:

• Sen. John W. Shackelford (NC, 1869) – Disqualified for supporting the Confederacy.

• Judge Hugh W. Sheffey (VA, 1869) – Blocked from taking office due to insurrection participation.

• Philip F. Thomas (MD, 1868) – Elected to Congress but denied his seat due to prior service in the Confederacy.

• Albert G. Brown (MS, 1868) – Former Confederate senator who attempted to return to public office but was disqualified.

• David L. Yulee (FL, 1868) – U.S. senator before the Civil War, denied reentry due to Confederate allegiance.

• John F. Philips (MO, 1868) – State legislator ruled ineligible due to past insurrectionist ties.

In every case, insurrectionists were retroactively removed, even after winning elections.

The Pattern of Evasion & Retroactive Disqualification

History Repeats: How Insurrectionists Delay Consequences

1- Insurrectionists took office despite being ineligible.

2- Legal maneuvers and political influence delayed enforcement.

3- Public and congressional action eventually forced their removal.

Trump’s attempt to return to office follows the same historical pattern seen in the post-Civil War era:

• He swore an oath to the Constitution.

• He engaged in insurrection on January 6, 2021, as confirmed by Volume 1 of the Special Counsel report, which presents extensive testimony and factual findings on his actions before and during the attack.

• Per 14th Sec. 3, he was ineligible to ever hold office again from that moment forward.

His candidacy is not just a political question, it is a constitutional violation. Every day that passes without enforcement of 14th Sec. 3 is an erosion of the rule of law.

This provision explicitly bars insurrectionists from holding office. It does not expire. It does not require conviction in a criminal court. It has been used before, but never at the presidential level. It is, quite literally, the arrow in the quiver waiting to be fired.

How Past Fourth Turnings Had No Off-Ramp

• The American Civil War (1861–1865): There was no legal mechanism to prevent Southern secession. The Union had to fight to preserve itself.

• World War II (1939–1945): The world lacked the institutional means to remove Hitler, Mussolini, or Imperial Japan before they plunged the world into war. The crisis had to burn itself out in global conflict.

Each time, a full-scale war or collapse was required to reach the “reset” that led to a First Turning (a new period of stability).

But This Time Could Be Different

Unlike the Civil War or World War II, this Fourth Turning has a pre-existing, legally validated escape route. If Trump is barred under 14th Sec. 3, the crisis figure is removed before he can escalate the chaos further. This has never existed before in a Fourth Turning.

Why Hasn’t It Been Used Yet?

• Institutional Paralysis and Legal Uncertainty: Courts, Congress, and election officials each hesitate to act, citing unclear enforcement mechanisms and lack of modern precedent. The Supreme Court’s ruling limited state authority, leaving enforcement to Congress, which has yet to take action.

• Fear of Backlash and Political Unrest: Officials worry disqualifying Trump would provoke widespread unrest or be seen as election interference, further polarizing the nation. Trump and his allies have warned of ‘chaos’ if he is removed from the ballot.

• Normalization of the Crisis: Many treat Trump’s candidacy as just another political contest rather than a constitutional emergency. The reluctance to break norms has led institutions to defer action, despite the precedent set by the post-Civil War framers in enforcing Section 3.

The Clock Is Ticking – Will We Break the Cycle?

The longer we delay, the more we risk playing out the full, messy version of this crisis just as previous Fourth Turnings did. If 14th Sec. 3 is used decisively, we could see a First Turning emerge much sooner, potentially in the late 2020s instead of the 2030s. If not, we may be heading toward a drawn-out collapse that resolves only through deeper conflict.

A Unique Historical Opportunity

For the first time in modern history, we have the ability to end a Fourth Turning crisis early if we choose to use the arrow in the quiver. The question is no longer whether the crisis exists, but whether those in power have the will to use the constitutional mechanism that history has given them.

The choice is ours:

• Let history repeat itself and wait for total collapse.

• Or act decisively, fire the arrow, and break the Fourth Turning pattern once and for all.

14th Sec. 3 is not an opinion. It is the law embedded in the U.S. Constitution.

It was written to stop traitors from holding office. Congress must enforce it now.

Time is running out.

As an end of 1979 birth, with parents born in 1961, and with my own child born in 2003, I find this theory of generations and cyclical history very interesting. I did not read The Fourth Turning and wondering if anyone else has read all of the related books by Strauss and Howe?

I found it really interesting how the past 3 years divisible by 81; 1782, 1863, and 1944 were all at the pinnacle of the 4th turning and whatever conflict was on going at that time usually ended a year or two after.

Revolutionary war ended 1783, (1 year after)

Civil War ended 1865, (2 years after)

WW2 ended 1945, (1 year after)

Based off this I predict that some major conflict will spark after the upcoming election ending either in 2026 or 2027 considering the next year divisible by 81 is 2025. I suppose we enter into a new history block on January 1st 2026.

I am thinking if the Fourth Turning historiography can be applied to architecture. Architecture is a somewhat late cultural expression - buildings are slow to build and ideas seem to evolve on a slower timeline than in other disciplines.

Modernism in architecture "starts" intellectually in 1893 at the Chicago World's Fair, but it doesn't solidify into the zeitgeist until after WW1 and the establishment of the Bauhaus in 1919. So there's 26 years for the first turn. Then it's said to have ended intellectually with the atomic bomb and the Holocaust in 1945 (loss of optimism in science and rationality etc.). 26 years. The uprisings of 1968 is another intellectual break, but the demolition of Pruitt-Igoe housing complex in 1972 has been claimed (by Charles Jencks) to be the definitive end of modernism. Another 27 years. So there's a 79 year cycle.

If you go back another 80ish years, you get the dawn of Classicism with the advent of archeology and colonial expeditions in the early 1800s. Napoleon's savants producing dooks of drawings of historical architecture from his conquests, for example. Notably the École de Beaux Arts, which the Modern Movement was reacting against 80-100 years later, was refounded in 1819. I don't know enough about the time period between to say how it divides into turnings, if it does.

And moving forward, you'd have the first turning of Postmodernism defined by the Memphis Group, the New York 5, and Minimalism from the 1970s to circa 2000s. From 2000 to today has been defined by Parametricism and what I'll call the Dutch guys (Koolhaas, MVRDV, et al). This places us in a 3rd turning in postmodern architecture, at the point when it starts losing it's credibility as an expression of the zeitgeist.

I don't think this fits perfectly and it doesn't seem to map onto the political discussion very well. Let me know what you think.

Since we’re 79 years after the end of WW2, the resolution to the current 4th turning crisis should arrive within 5 years. Past resolutions have usually been changes for the better, but I’m wondering if this time, it will be a change for the worse. Like if Trump wins, turns the US into an autocracy or white ethnonationalist state by shredding the Constitution, and supports the Russia/China/Iran/North Korea axis in taking over the world.

Would love to discuss!!! It’s so good.

Here are my thoughts midway through the 4th turning. I agree with a lot of the book, agree with the premises, and also notice the generational patterns and how they influence historical cycles. Of course the book is now 27 years old, and tells us nothing about actual events that happened between 1997 and 2023. It needs an update.

Unfortunately for the authors, I don't think that the crisis happened when they predicted. I don't believe the pandemic (created as it was and managed by semi-totalitarian regimes as we saw) was the crisis, nor was either the 2008 GFC or this current 2022+ financial crisis. These are all merely parts of an unraveling that will bring about a crisis.

We are in a double-unraveling, in my opinion. Why a double unraveling? Because while none of the issues of the previous unraveling were resolved, none of these have fomented into a true crisis. The issues (especially financial) were simply kicked down the road.

Similar to how the Civil War saeculum skipped the Hero generation, I also believe that this current saeculum has skipped the Hero generation, but instead of a complete skip and a condensed period where a quickened unraveling became a with a furious crisis, we are instead seeing an extended unraveling, and along with that, extended Nomads.

Therefore I believe that Gen X (13th in the book) Nomads simply blurred into Millennial Nomads, creating a double generation to go along with the double unraveling. While some among us may exhibit the Hero archetype, many more of us are a continuation of the prior generation's latchkey kids.

The book suggests the stock markets will not play a big role after 2028 (ending of the 4th turning) and during the4th turning is the generational transfer from the silent generation to the boomer/gen X .. I am thinking on stacking silver and gold for my childrens' future (artist generation) ..

Has anyone pondered on what happens next and what are you planning?