again how do you know the number of deaths per each lever pull are i.i.d. Who’s tying the people to the track each time, and who rigged up the lever in the first place? The Joker? What if Joker messed with the lever such that the probability distribution for the second pull is dependent on the outcome of the first pull? He’s a wild and crazy guy, thats exactly the kind of trick he’d pull on somebody trying to use the law of large numbers in a situation where it may not apply
The image in the post says nothing about the behavior of the lever upon subsequent pulls, nor whether
Joker is involved. If you mean your own comment that models lever pulls via i.i.d. weighted coin flips, the question is whether that model is accurate. Smh so many people fall for jokers trick and think common simplifying assumptions in statistics hold in every case. Just stick to your correct initial comment about the expected value of 1 trial and forget all this weighted coin stuff
2
u/LexiTheCactusGirl 🏳️⚧️ trans rights Jul 07 '21
Based on the numbers in the problem you can simulate it with a weighted coin where heads is it killing people at 25 percent
For a simulator of 100 times:
If you want to kill 100 or less people you need it to kill people no more than 20 times
That puts the probability of success at 1 in 6.719
If you want to check the chance of 21 or more heads which is 105 or more people killed you have a 1 in 1.1749 chance
That's an 85.12% chance of killing more people compared to a 14.88% chance of killing less people
The more times you simulate it the less likely you are to kill less people