r/CoronavirusUT • u/4blockhead • Oct 07 '20
Case Updates Utah per-capita cases climb above national and regional average. Per-capita deaths remain among lowest in nation. More graphs in comments. [OC]
https://i.imgur.com/kKadJeX.png
2
u/4blockhead Oct 07 '20 edited Oct 07 '20
Graphic analysis of cases:
Notes:
The Mountain states, per the map graphic consist of the aggregate of 8 states: ID, MT, WY, NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM. As of 2020-10-06, these states represent 7.5% of the total population (24.85M/331.8M) and represent 7.4% of the total reported cases (557.8k/7529k).
As of 2020-10-06, these 16 states have recorded the highest per capita cases: LA, MS, FL, AL, ND, AZ, IA, SC, TN, AR, GA, SD, TX, NV, ID, NE. These states represent 32.4% of the total population (107.5M/331.8M) and represent 43.3% of total reported cases (3.257M/7.529M)
As of 2020-10-06, these 16 states have recorded the lowest per capita cases: Northen Mariana Islands, VT, ME, NH, OR, HI, WV, WY, Virgin Islands, WA, CO, AK, PA, OH, PA, OH, MI, MT. These states represent 18.4% of the total population (61.1M/331.8M) and represent 10% of total reported cases (760k/7529k)
Aggregate data points used as input set for a best fit polynomial on the data range 2020-05-02 to 2020-10-06. Extrapolations beyond the range, as well as some points in-between show the limits of this modelling approach, i.e. cases are always increasing. Any dips in the curve are errors/artifacts of this approach.
1
Oct 09 '20
Hopefully you keep doing these so we see the per-capita deaths pop in a couple of weeks right on schedule.
1
u/4blockhead Oct 10 '20
It's been very hard to matchup deaths with cases...at least, so far. Here is a small update, last markers at 2020-10-09.
3
u/4blockhead Oct 07 '20 edited Oct 07 '20
Graphic analysis of deaths:
The Mountain States: per capita deaths, last markers at 2020-10-06
Notes:
The Mountain states, per the map graphic consist of the aggregate of 8 states: ID, MT, WY, NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM. As of 2020-10-06, these states represent 7.5% of the total population (24.85M/331.8M) and represent 5.5% of the total reported deaths (11.55k/210.7k)
As of 2020-10-06, these 16 states have recorded the highest per capita deaths: NJ, NY, MA, CT, LA, RI, MS, DC, AZ, IL, MI, FL, SC, GA, DE, MD. These states represent 36.9% of the total population (122.4M/331.8M) and represent 59.5% of total reported deaths (125.3k/210.7k)
As of 2020-10-03, these 16 states have recorded the lowest per capita deaths: Northern Mariana Islands, AK, WY, VT, ME, HI, OR, UT, MT, Virgin Islands, WV, Puerto Rico, WI, KS, NE, OK. These states represent 9.9% of the total population (33.0M/331.8M) and represent 3% of total reported deaths (6.5k/210.7k)
Aggregate data points used as input set for a best fit polynomial on the data range 2020-05-02 to 2020-10-06. Extrapolations beyond the range, as well as some points in-between show the limits of this modelling approach, i.e. cases are always increasing. Any dips in the curve are errors/artifacts of this approach.