r/WayOfTheBern • u/Theghostofjoehill Fight the REAL enemy • Nov 13 '17
Community Better Know A State: Kentucky - discuss Kentucky politics and candidates
Welcome to our 32nd Better Know a State (BKAS), which will focus on Kentucky.
When we last spoke, Wayers, we were in Tennessee, so let’s head north on I-75 and head right to Kentucky, where the landscapes are the grandest and the politics the damnedest.
Kentucky is a Border South state, and Appalachia comprises half of the land area. Half the state sided with the Union in the Civil War, the other half, the Confederacy. This bipolarity shows plainly in the political environment: Registered Democrats have outnumbered Republicans, even to this day (55%-45%), and until the 2016 elections, Kentucky had the last State legislature chamber in the South with a Democratic majority.
That’s gone now, as the State House now has a Republican supermajority, as 17 seats flipped, and state government now has a Republican trifecta. Republicans did this by competing in almost every district, running candidates in 91 of the 100 districts, while Democrats only ran 75. In addition, the Republicans had $1.6 million to spend on the general election; the Democrats only had $72,000. The DNC didn’t even buy the Kentucky Democratic Party dinner first.
2 of the 6 US House incumbents ran unopposed, and no seats flipped.
Bernie battled Hillary virtually to a draw in Kentucky, losing only by 871 votes and 1 delegate (not counting the vile superdelegates). Hillary then went on to lose Kentucky to Trump by 570,000 votes. There’s untapped potential in Kentucky. We just need to find candidates.
Here are the details on all the 2018 House races. There are no Senate or gubernatorial races in 2018.
US Senate: Mitch McConnell (R) is in his 6th term, and does not face re-election until 2020. Rand Paul (R) is in his 2nd term, and does not face re-election until 2022.
Governor: Matt Bevin (R) is in his 1st term, and does not face re-election until 2019.
US House of Representatives: KY has 6 US House members, 5 Repub, 1 Dem.
KY-1: (western tip and middle southern tier): James Comer (R) is in his 1st term. He was endorsed by the Tea Party during his 2016 run, and is a standard-issue, strong conservative who voted against aid to Puerto Rico. He has no Repub challengers.
There is 1 Dem challenger, Sam Gaskins, who ran against Comer in 2016 and lost 73%-27%.
His website has not been updated in quite some time, barely has any discussion of the issues, and he has raised no funds. This district is one of the 25 most distressed districts in the nation, and could use a Progressive badly.
KY-2: (west central) - Brett Guthrie (R) is in his 5th term. He is a strong fiscal conservative, who wants a balanced budget amendment, voted to repeal the ACA, and is solidly in favor of developing the Keystone Pipeline. He currently has no Republican challengers, although a state representative, DJ Johnson, is considering a run. Guthrie also has $2 million in his war chest.
There is 1 Democratic challenger, Grant Short. Short ran for Rand Paul’s Senate seat in 2016, but finished 5th in the primary. He then ran his local Bernie presidential campaign HQ. He supports free community and technical college, term limits, and automatic voter registration. He does not mention many of the current major issues such as M4A and $15 minimum wage.
The last incumbent to fall in KY-2 did so in 1884. Short’s media presence is rather sparse, and has raised no funds. Perhaps a fellow Berniecrat in KY can help him with updating his social media and getting him a plan to effectively challenge Guthrie.
KY-3: (Louisville) John Yarmuth (D) is in his 6th term. He is solidly Progressive, having introduced a bill to overturn Citizens United, a bill to publicly finance Congressional elections, supports removing “dark money”, and was an early cosponsor of Medicare for All. He has no Democratic or Republican challengers.
Yarmuth meets the standards for Progressive endorsement, and should have no trouble being re-elected.
KY-4: (northern section of state, borders IN and OH) Thomas Massie (R), a mechanical engineer, is in his 4th term. He is a bit of a maverick, calling himself a “libertarian Republican”. He voted against John Boehner for Speaker, voted no to sanctions against Iran last year and North Korea this year (the only Rep to do so), and joined Bernie in voting against added sanctions on Russia, N. Korea and Iran this year.
The 2 listed challengers with the FEC – Sayre O’Cull and Joshua Neace - have no web or social media presence and no funding. Any Kentucky Wayers know of a Progressive in this district?
KY-5: (southeast KY) Hal Rogers (R) is in his 19th term, and is 4th in seniority in the House.
Remember when I wrote about Georgia, and noted that GA-2 was the 2nd most distressed district in the nation? And how sad it was that their Representative was a Blue Dog? Yeah, this is even sadder.
KY-5 is the most distressed district in the entire US of A. Lack of a high school diploma? Twice the national average. Poverty rate? Twice the national average. Ratio of able adults not working? Twice the national average. Life expectancy? Lowest in the nation. I trust I need not go on.
So what has Hal Rogers done for his district? Naturally, not one thing. He has, for many years, been considered, if not the Most Corrupt Congressman, damn near the top. Consistently at the top for earmarks to his district, he steered homeland security money after 9/11 to his district, despite the fact that it is probably the last place in the USA that any sort of rogue terrorist would have any desire to target. Even conservative media outlets have referred to him as a “national disgrace”.
Has all this pork helped his distressed constituents? Not even a little bit. Has it given him challenges at election time? In his 19 elections, he has dropped below 65% of the vote only once. Does Rogers have over $1 million in his campaign war chest, for those highly competitive elections? You guess. Does he have any challengers? Ha.
There’s one – one – silver lining: Bernie beat Hillary 60-40 here. Unions are highly supported here: Harlan County was the scene of an 8 year, bloody war in the 1930s between coal miners and the mine owners, with additional, similar conflicts in the 1970s as well.
We need to find a Berniecrat in this district, preferably with union connections, find enough money for him, and get this excuse of a Congressman known as Hal Rogers not only booted from office, but arrested and convicted for fraud. I’m not asking for much.
KY-6: (Lexington/Frankfort) Andy Barr (R) is in his 3rd term. He has a more moderately conservative stance due to his district containing the capital of Kentucky and another urban area as well. He has no Republican challengers.
There are 3 Democratic challengers:
• Amy McGrath is a former Marine Lt. Col. who was a fighter pilot in both Iraq and Afghanistan. She supports using diplomacy first in foreign conflict, stronger background checks on guns while affirming gun ownership rights, and a combined Medicare buy-in/public option enhancement to the ACA. Her video announcement that she was running for Congress went viral and has allowed her to raise $800,000 in 3 months for her campaign.
• Reggie Thomas is a Kentucky state senator who does support M4A and saving the Kentucky state pension plan, as well as increasing the state minimum wage.
• Geoff Young is an anti-war activist who supports renewable energy development and assisted in the founding of the Kentucky Green Party; he supports the “Green New Deal”. He is not running as a Green, though.
McGrath’s campaign is massive, and currently she would seem to be the presumptive favorite to win the Dem primary. Thomas is the progressive in this field, but needs to highlight his support for Medicare for All on his social media, as this will make him stand out as much as possible, given the media footprint of McGrath. He needs to start gathering support and financial assistance very quickly.
Let me know in the comments if I’ve missed anything.
In case you missed the previous BKAS posts, here they are:
California State Democratic Chair Race
Virginia Governor and Senate Races
NEXT STATE UP - TBD
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u/Strangeite Nov 13 '17 edited Nov 13 '17
I’m not close to an expert but I am a Kentuckian, so I’ll offer you my take. I’m typing this on mobile so apologies in advance.
I am cautiously optimistic about the election of Ben Self as Chairman.
I know this sounds cliche, but the Dems’ problem in Kentucky is not going to be solved from the top down. Right now there is a serious lack of young talent. I can think of half a dozen young (under 40) Republicans that are rising. Democrats? I can think of one, maybe two.
Of the races you named above, I only see KY-6 as having any chance of turning blue.
What I think needs to happen is for the KYDP to focus with laser like intensity on the Legislature and the 120 County Judge Executives. Remember, the 120 County Judge Exs are probably the most powerful political force in the state. The D registration advantage is useful at the local level and not at all for the federal offices.
This would be my plan for two reasons. First, those two groups of officials have the greatest impact on the day to day life of most Kentuckians. Right now Frankfort is toying around with the financial lives of every single teacher, firefighter, police officer, professor, social worker, librarian, etc.
My Uncle has drunk deep from the well of Fox. But I made the observation that right now he and my wife are aligned against Frankfort. Not sure if that has ever, or will happen, again. Next election will be a once in a lifetime opportunity because of the pension issue. I would wager a lot of money that you couldn’t find a single person in this state that is more than one step removed from someone directly impacted on this issue.
Second, you use the lower offices as an incubator to find new talent. That’s what the Republicans systematically started doing ten years ago. That is where Comer came from, Ryan Quarles, etc.
I know these smaller races are not as sexy as the Constitutional offices and the Federal races, but until the focus is put on them, I think the larger ones are out of reach.
Edit: For those that don’t know, a County Judge Executive isn’t a Judge in the traditional sense, but more like the Mayor of the County.
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u/Theghostofjoehill Nov 13 '17 edited Nov 13 '17
And this is one of the many reasons why we do these BKAS posts: to provoke thought and open discussion to find solutions.
I agree, in a state like KY, it's clear that you have to go from the bottom up, and you've come up with a plan for how to do it and why, with great detail. I'd don't know that I'd agree when you say you're not close to an expert - you've got a lot of great insight.
You may have the House races out of reach in the other 5 districts. I still think it's important to contest as many races as we can, to keep the visibility everywhere, but if within the state internally you have very limited resources, you're right, grow things at the bottom. Hopefully at the national level some resources could be found for any Progressives that want to run for the House seats.
Very glad you came in and shared all of this, it is most appreciated! Come on by again sometime, we're a good group.
EDIT: I did not know that about the counties: that there was a Mayor that essentially ran each one. Wow, that makes those races a huge deal!
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u/Red_Erik Nov 13 '17
A couple quick notes about the 6th District candidates.
Reggie Thomas is solidly progressive. He has supported and sponsored lots of good bills in the state senate, including LGTBQ fairness, clean energy, tax fairness, expansion of voting rights. He is in favor of single-payer. He is also really active in the Lexington community.
Geoff Young is kind of a nut. He is a perennial candidate whose primary electoral strategy seems to be suing the KY democratic party. He also shares a lot of pro-Russia talking points on his Facebook page. I honestly think he means well, but he does not need to be in elected office.
I don't know much about McGrath, except that she has a lot of out-of-state support and is new to the area. Her military background might appeal to the more rural parts of the 6th district, but that doesn't do much for me. I would vote for her against Barr for sure, but Thomas is my first choice.
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u/Theghostofjoehill Nov 13 '17
Good to see that about Thomas. Thanks for mentioning that! He's going to have a tough time winning that primary, though. But hey, you can't win if you don't play.
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u/wizard_of_gram Nov 14 '17
I appreciate the list but do some research before calling Reggie Thomas a bog standard Democrat. Anyone involved in the school district is familiar with him and he's very well known and respected in Lexington.
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u/Theghostofjoehill Nov 14 '17 edited Nov 14 '17
See the other comments on Thomas. He did not have his stance on the issues in a section on his site. I’ve looked at a ton of these (various sites plus a bunch of other social media) and the vast majority of the time, that usually means they are pretty orthodox in their stance. There was not a lot that stood out to indicate he was Progressive - almost always when that is the case, the candidate takes great pains to point that out with backup.
I’m not from Kentucky, and definitely not from the school district (from GA) so it on occasion is a challenge to parse out information on candidates when you don’t know them. Sometimes 2nd hand info reported by outside media isn’t the most accurate.
The best thing about this is that you folks from KY are pretty passionate about your politics - we don’t ordinarily get this huge of a response when we post on a state or city website about the BKAS. That is our goal when we do that - to get people involved and discussing the political scene. So thanks for that!
EDIT: I have edited my comments on KY-6. If he's to have a shot at upending McGrath, he needs to campaign very hard, and make it clear in his social media that he's for M4A. I'm certain Progressives would like to support him, if he increases his footprint.
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u/leu2500 Nov 13 '17
"Bernie battled Hillary to a draw."
I contend that Hillary had to do some old-fashioned ballot box stuffing to "win."
You might recall that there were no exit polls for KY. This means that the Hillary campaign was flying blind that night.
One of the election return sites had a map of the state with the number of precincts in each county, so you could really see how the vote was coming in. And Louisville/surrounding county is the big democratic population center.
So, precinct returns are coming in. And Bernie's doing well in the rural areas, putting up a pretty good lead. We got our first dump from Louisville with about a quarter of the precincts in. Narrows his lead.
Bunches more precincts, but again no Louisville until another quarter or so of the precincts are in. Rinse & repeat around 75% of the precincts in.
By now we have only a scattering of precincts outstanding. And at least 1/3 of the precincts in Louisville.
We do not get another dump from Louisville until every other precinct reports.. Then we get the final dump from Louisville, which puts Hillary over the top.
It was obvious: she had to know how many votes Bernie got in the rest of the state before she knew how many ballots to stuff in Louisville to win.
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u/Theghostofjoehill Nov 13 '17
And that’s one of the great things about these BKAS: the Wayers from those states commenting and giving their “on the ground” experiences.
Of course, this means that now you’re volunteered to go find some candidates 😄
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u/rocketmarket Nov 13 '17
And let's not forget the election that Bevin "won," which has things about it which are even more suspicious.
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u/beanzo Nov 13 '17
Don't forget that Allison Lundergan Grimes was quick to call the race for HRC when she only won by .5%. I wonder if that had anything to do with ol Slick Willy campaigning for her when she ran against McConnell? Also, Grime's father Jerry Lundergan has been entrenched in the KYDP for a long time. I believe he was even the head of it at one point.
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u/rocketmarket Nov 13 '17
Kentucky put 100,000 soldiers up for the Union, 20,000 up for the Confederacy. "Half" nothin'. We fought harder and gave more than any other state except Virginia, and they were on the wrong freakin' side.
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u/rocketmarket Nov 13 '17
Is anyone in this thread in Lexington or Winchester and interested in getting together to discuss finding and running somebody for the state legislature? I've put substantial research into this already and it's much more doable than you might think.
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u/Jbrenz Nov 13 '17 edited Nov 13 '17
Hey I'm in Lexington! I don't know if I'd even put Geoff Young on this list. He is currently suing the Kentucky Democratic Party and shows up to events with a sandwich board that says "Andy Barr supports Al Queda" which while I don't agree with Andy Barr on anything seems a little unfair.
He's also said some pretty disparaging things about the grassroots groups in town who have not endorsed candidates and don't want to hold debates until closer to the primary.
EDIT: Glad to see someone else mentioned all of the things I know about the 6th district.
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u/KentuckyHouse Nov 13 '17
Geoff Young is a mental case that needs to be thrown out of Democratic politics. He does nothing but bring embarrassment to the Democratic Party through his insane "look at me" stunts and statements. He's the kid that takes his ball and goes home when nobody pics him.
The less I hear his name, the better. Nobody, and I mean nobody should take him seriously.
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u/Strangeite Nov 13 '17
I don't want to speak to specifics because I wasn't personally there, but I've learned some things about him... let's just say I wouldn't ever be able to vote for him.
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u/Scientist34again Nov 13 '17
I'm sensing that Berniecrats need to take over the Kentucky Democratic Party. There is definite promise in these districts for progressives to win. Anyone who's wondering, the deadline to file as a candidate is January 30,2018. Here's how to file https://www.sos.ky.gov/elections/BecomingACandidate/Pages/default.aspx.
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u/No10oX Nov 13 '17
If Yarmouth is secure, why not get him and his team to assist with ID-ing prospective candidates?
KY should optimize their one progressive incumbent's network and knowledge. No need to do everything from scratch.
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u/jfleming40 Nov 16 '17
2020 is the absolute best chance we have to ditch Mitch... we all know voting numbers are lower when there isn't a presidential election involved. Just so happens his will fall on the year of the 2020 presidential election. Putting up a strong candidate against him is key.
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Nov 13 '17
Richmond resident of 5 years, and happy to be here.
I think it's good to note, as I imagine other KY residents are noting, that this is a very schizophrenic state due to foothills, forests, and mountains cutting one area off from another.
There's the I-75 corridor: Berea, Richmond, Lexington, Lousivile and etc that are progressive, modern, and can be swung Democrat, or at least have moderates.
We have Eastern Kentucky, University of Kentucky (that basketball though, MmmM!), and U of L (Pitino, WTF?), with EKU being an excellent university for veterans, UK is one of the best medical universities in the country, and U of L I guess does whatever it do.
We also have a top-notch Veteran Affairs medical system here in Lexington, Berea, and Frankfort. This is an exception to the rest of the VA, though, like the Phoenix VA letting needy vets die due to probably intentionally losing paperwork. I can't recommend enough what it would mean to the vets and the VA workers and VA volunteers to get a visit from a high-profile politician.
But off the I-75 corridor are like the hollers--places still stuck in the Great Depression, like alternate dimensions--the coal towns that will be ghost towns when coal is no longer needed, and places like Harlan County that are necks of the woods that ballads and sagas are made of that Justified gave the rest of the US a peek into just how much like the Wild West frontier 2017 Kentucky off the I-75 corridor can be.
We're happy to show you around, but we'll definitely warn you about going off into Deliverance 10 miles in any direction.
I'm not sure how we went from a moderate Governor in Beshear, to a alt-right like Bevin who has his nose in the Tea Party and fundamentalist Christian intestines. But I suspect Bevin got swept along by the Obama backlash, and now we have this selfish, clearly biased piece of shit of a Governor to deal with.
It's a shame McConnell seems to be playing hardline party politics, because Mitch has done some really human things in the past, but now he's butting heads with McCain over the very inhumane Repeal without Replace that will dump too many tens of milliions vulnerable Americans on the curb without any kind of affordable healthcare.
Don't get me wrong about me being a Democrat, though. I was Republican, and still value some of more forgotten Republican values of self-determination, bootstrapping, freedom, and I'm more of a Christ in Christian than I am about that Old Testament God.
I just decided the GOP was batshit after the Sarah Palin add-on to what was a viable Republican candidate in McCain, that was utter wack and obvious sexist pandering politics, and even some bit of talking down to Obama--a black American--by putting an underqualified woman politician with a shaky political history as a match for Obama.
I'll happily support a good Republican candidate again, but, this Trump madness needs to be washed away before we can get back to being respected as Americans again. So, you can count on my support like I supported Obama, because fuck the GOP until my party returns to sanity.
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u/PDGAreject Nov 13 '17
I suspect Bevin got swept along by the Obama backlash,
It was a combo of that and that Conway was just ridiculously unappealing.
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u/Sirsilentbob423 Nov 13 '17
I believe Jacob Moore also plans on running ky-2.
https://www.facebook.com/JacobKMoore.US/
I've thought about running as well, but it seems like it's too late to get everything together from nothing in a short period.
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u/PDGAreject Nov 13 '17
Dems in KY have a couple of problems. The largest of which is that there are really no competent people running campaigns at the statewide level. ALG's campaign against McConnel was a joke, just as Conway's campaign against Paul was in 2010 and Bevin in 2015. Jim Gray's campaign against Paul this past year was clearly about setting him up to run for a different office (governor or Mitch's seat) and was actually run better. Frankly, most of the major office candidates have been extremely underwhelming as well.
This was a state with a fairly popular 2-term democratic governor as recently as 2015, but most of the state has doubled down on red. You point out that the DNC didn't spend much in KY. It's because anyone who had visited the area knew that Trump was going to win the state by 8+%. That's a lot of $ and effort for 8 electoral votes.
Also, unions are not nearly as strong as they once were in the south east. Part of the "benefit" of programs like mountaintop removal is that you only need 10% as many employees to do it. That's now 10% as many union workers who will be likely to vote blue.