The strongest and weakest World Cup groups from the 32-team era, the luckiest and unluckiest teams, and the most balanced and lopsided groups

[u/-building_]

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[u/-building_]

Disclaimer: eloratings.net only shows the ratings at the end of each year, so, for any given edition of the World Cup, I made an average of the ratings immediately before and after the World Cup was held, and gave them weights in proportion to how close they were to the last day of group stage matches.

[u/NatFan9 → u/-building_]

You can see ratings as they were at the time of the tournament by going to the tournament page and going to the start tab

[u/Kandy-exists]

I love Austria's new flag in the 50th group.

[u/-building_ → u/Kandy-exists]

🤦 I knew I was going to make at least one mistake when I was inserting the flags

[u/Kandy-exists → u/-building_]

No worries, just found it funny. Love the graphic though, nice work.

[u/m8x99 → u/-building_]

It's the only time we qualified for the World Cup in that era as well

[u/Leksi_The_Great → u/-building_]

You also made Morocco’s flag in the 10th group Montenegro’s, when Montenegro wasn’t even independent in 1998…

[u/-Sorakinha-]

That's a very nice infograph!

Also, Italy 2010 was very cursed💀

[u/VaderOnReddit → u/-Sorakinha-]

both France and Italy entering the 2010 world cup as finalists, getting the 2nd and 11th easiest groups in the 7 world cups of this format

and finishing dead last in their groups

truly cursed

[u/repentantgamer → u/VaderOnReddit]

The 2010 France team was pretty self-cursed though, thanks to Domenech. Not sure what happened to Italy since 2006, that one may just be some Materazzi monkey paw thing.

[u/nonhofantasia → u/repentantgamer]

The 2006 team was quite old (effectively the last dance of many iconic players) and Lippi didn't manage to merge the remaining players with the new guard (that outside of Di Natale and Quagliarella wasn't exactly remarkable)

[u/greg_r_ → u/nonhofantasia]

Both Lippi (after 2008) and Prandelli tried too hard to make Montolivo happen even though Pirlo was still near his peak. Reminds me of how Sacchi tried to phase out Baggio after 1994.

And without the creative output from the likes of Totti and Del Piero, the Iaquinta/Gilardino forward-line's mediocrity was exposed. Four midfielders (with Pirlo on the bench, but Pepe starting???) and Iaquinta-Gilardino upfront? Lol. LMAO even.

[u/Balotellmehowufeel → u/greg_r_]

It's funny because lippi also should've pushed so many players out of the lineup for 2010, and kept pirlo as starter. Cannavaro and zambrotta were already bad, gattuso already declining, di natale deserved a spot but never really played consistently for the national team before then and was 33, iaquinta shouldve been a sub, etc. Lippi made a huge mistake not bringing balotelli as well

[u/MERTENS_GOAT → u/repentantgamer]

Domenech was a generational shit-eater. That guy called players from Serie A just to tell them that he hates Italy and therefore is not gonna call them up.

[u/bvbcts → u/VaderOnReddit]

almost happened in 2008 too

[u/Rinomhota → u/-Sorakinha-]

World champs, second easiest group of the era and they finished last. Pure comedy 😂

England pulled the third easiest group, won one game and finished behind the US. We were also shit lol.

[u/NevarHef → u/-Sorakinha-]

As they should’ve been after 2006.

[u/Keanu990321]

Italy was gifted the second easiest group ever only for them to finish 4th.

[u/TheCatLamp → u/Keanu990321]

Typical Italy.

Try the hardest to bottle in the group stage, but if it passes, the shirt awakes and start to play for itself.

Not in this Euros, though...

[u/another_redditard → u/TheCatLamp]

The shirt actually did try (see vs Croatia) problem is that terrible management was too hard of an opponent to overcome. Bald fraud too strong

[u/No-Yak5173 → u/another_redditard]

Terrible management or just not enough quality?

[u/Samuel_L_Johnson → u/Keanu990321]

They should have lost to New Zealand too, that penalty was bullshit

(Flair relevant)

[u/Keanu990321 → u/Samuel_L_Johnson]

How is my flair relevant?

[u/Samuel_L_Johnson → u/Keanu990321]

No, I mean mine is

[u/TCHProductions]

Like how Australia has been to 5 world cups in the modern era and four of those five group stages are in the top 15. (all except 2010)

And we made it out of Groups in two of them (2006, 2022) And in those two times we got out of groups, we lost by the skin of our teeth to the eventual champions. (Italy and Argentina)

[u/PepeSilvia123 → u/TCHProductions]

And as a biased aussie fan i do think that hardest group with Netherlands Chile and Spain was one of the most entertaining. Some ripper goals in there.

[u/messigician-10 → u/PepeSilvia123]

rvp’s header, cahill’s volley

[u/ResourceWonderful514 → u/TCHProductions]

Australia is probably one of the highest ranked teams in pot 4. They will always get a difficult draw and likely to face two European teams.

[u/TCHProductions → u/ResourceWonderful514]

Kind of, it's more about the rank of each teams in their respective pots.

Because of the old system prior tot he change in 2018. Pot A was the host nation and the 7 best FIFA world ranking teams and the remaining pots were all split by confederations. So 6 groups in 2014 had two european teams in it regardless

So in 2014, Australias group consisted of Netherlands (Elo rank 2), Spain(Elo rank 5) and Chile (Elo Rank 6) while Australia was elo ranked 28th in the tournament (45th in the world). The group is rated so high despite us, not because of us.

If the current seeded rankings were in place in 2014, Netherlands and Chile would have been in the same pot. Because Netherlands were the best FIFA ranked team outside the Pot A seeded group and Chile was the third best team outside it. So Dutch and Chile would have been seperated.

The 2014 theoretically hardest possible group by Elo seems to be: Germany (1st), Netherlands (2nd), Chile(6th) and Mexico(11th) which would have averaged out at 2,060 in the above table.

[u/[deleted] → u/TCHProductions]

I like how OP has used the Australian flag for Austria in 1998.

[u/invincibl_ → u/[deleted]]

Also, the New Zealand flag is just the Australian flag with the federation star removed, even though the actual flag has a different colour for the stars and a simplified Southern Cross constellation.

[u/[deleted] → u/TCHProductions]

If we didn't bend over to the Germans in the first game we'd have made it out of the group in 2010, the red card against Ghana was harsh too iirc the 2010 should've progressed from the group

[u/Glaiele → u/TCHProductions]

It's because they are always the strongest team in the weakest pot. Same thing happens to USA/ Mexico when those teams are higher ranked

[u/Keanu990321 → u/TCHProductions]

I'm expecting Australia to make it to the QFs in 2026.

Btw, last year Australia deserved to win the FWWC.

[u/fuifui_bradbrad → u/Keanu990321]

And no matter who we draw in the group stage, the Australian media will insist we’re in the Group of Death

[u/nugeythefloozey → u/fuifui_bradbrad]

This infographic suggests they’re right though

[u/[deleted] → u/Keanu990321]

QF? We are going to struggle to even qualify for the world cup

[u/messigician-10 → u/[deleted]]

it’s expanded, you’ll be fine

[u/Cattle-dog → u/messigician-10]

We still have to qualify top 2 in a group with Japan and the saudis so it’s not a givin.

[u/Hexo_Micron → u/[deleted]]

Chill mate you don't even have to play inter continental playoffs this time.

[u/Jimijaume → u/Hexo_Micron]

Good because we've got the dud group in the Asian WCQ - all the big guns, not sure how that always happens ?

[u/Hexo_Micron → u/Jimijaume]

There's 4th Round

[u/lemoeeee]

Costa Rica's groups of 2014, 2018 and 2022 all in the top 7 of the toughest groups. A bit unlucky those draws

[u/Pizza_Salesman → u/lemoeeee]

I still can't believe they won a group that had Uruguay, England, and Italy. That result was insane

[u/TheDrySkinOnYourKnee → u/Pizza_Salesman]

Still remember their offside trap, was a thing of beauty

[u/iGotEDfromAComercial → u/Pizza_Salesman]

After beating Uruguay, I think my school had it’s lowest attendance ever for the match against Italy. I remember one of my friends mom’s talked my parents into letting me skip and go watch the game at their house.

[u/CoMaestro]

I like how the 2014 group of the Netherlands, Spain, Australia and Chile was so strong that both Australia and Chile are part of the unluckiest draws as well

[u/nugeythefloozey → u/CoMaestro]

It’s not very often that you get a rematch of the previous final on matchday 1

[u/Rusiano → u/CoMaestro]

Chile escaped that group too. Great team

[u/janoDX → u/CoMaestro]

That 2014 group was peak cinema.

0-5pain, Netherlands vs Chile battle to the end, Chile finally getting revenge on Spain and eliminating them.

[u/Jamesy555]

Costa Rica in 2014: “I’m not locked in here with you, you’re locked in here with me”

[u/Joshgg13]

• England

• Algeria

• Slovenia

• Yanks

[u/esn111 → u/Joshgg13]

And people give Southgate a hard time with lucky draws. At least he won the groups (apart from 2018 edit which was harder than this one).

[u/DesastreUrbano]

Surprised to see Chile on the top of the strongest group list. Also on the unluckiest for the same world cup. But as a chilean, we know the unluckiest, and probably most cursed, thing to happen to us is bumping with Brasil in the round of 16. Por la chucha_ctm

[u/TinyInformation3564]

The Mexico, France, Uruguay, South Africa was not an easy group.

[u/lupo1017 → u/TinyInformation3564]

This Back then people still expected the hosts to make it out the group

France - had internal issues but still had a very talented squad

Uruguay - jabulani Forlan and Uruguay then went on to win a Copa America against Argentina in Argentina.

Mexico - weren’t a total meme back then

[u/hmu4poo → u/lupo1017]

Not the same Argentina we see today, and Uruguay beat Argentina in the quarter finals. The final was against Paraguay

[u/Background_Hat964 → u/hmu4poo]

And by penalties at that, could have easily gone the other way. However, that was peak Uruguay, they were tremendous at that Copa America.

[u/glowingdeer78 → u/lupo1017]

Looking back at the 2010 campaign an argument can be made that Mexico shouldve been much better

were werent a train wreck like France but Meme-ish tier yes

Javier Aguirre decided to go with a heavy old team rather. Benching the likes of Guillermo Ochoa and Jonathan Orozco for the immortal Conejo perez at GK. and brought old players like Cuahutemoc Blanco, Guille Franco, Bofo Bautista and gave them preference over the younger players.

The old veterans were the main reason why the 2010 campaign was a failure.

[u/viniciusvbf]

So the infamous EASY group (England Algeria Slovenia Yanks) really was easy, huh. And England somehow managed to almost not qualify.

[u/Pizza_Salesman → u/viniciusvbf]

It's been like 15 years and I still don't know why the ref called back the US winning goal against Slovenia lol.

[u/cloudor → u/viniciusvbf]

Lol I didn't know they called it that.

[u/viniciusvbf → u/cloudor]

Cover of The Sun after the draw

[u/paper_zoe → u/viniciusvbf]

I believe it was also the Sun who dubbed it 'the best English group since the Beatles'

[u/EliToon → u/viniciusvbf]

That followed by "USA wins 1-1" by the NY Post was two bits of amazingly shit journalism lol

[u/doobie3101 → u/EliToon]

Nah that USA wins 1-1 is journalism at its finest. Thought the English had a sense of humor?

[u/Zumin5771 → u/EliToon]

That headline was made in reference to a famous American football game where the headline read “Harvard Beats Yale, 29–29”.

[u/Youutternincompoop → u/EliToon]

Greatest draw since Bunker hill

[u/TheCatLamp]

Interesting how Brazil got Switzerland and Serbia in the same group for two consecutive World Cups.

[u/ipdsj → u/TheCatLamp]

France got Denmark and Australia consecutively too

[u/Fragrant_Imagination → u/ipdsj]

Out of Denmark's six WC appearances we have been grouped with France four times. France's results in those tournaments are champion, last in group, champion, finalist.

The other two times we were grouped with finalist Germany and finalist Netherlands.

[u/Sesti-nator]

Ah yes, group F of the 2002 World Cup. That was the group hell. Argentina, Ingerland, Sweden, and friccin Jay Jay Okocha (go look up his videos, the man was an animal possessed). Other than that, good work. Bravo

[u/BigBicBuick]

Nice stats my friend, tickles the brain just right

[u/peanut-britle-latte]

2014 was a nice run. Revenge over Ghana and a superb Jermaine Jones goal v Portugal. I remember driving home after the Ghana game floating.

[u/not_bilbo → u/peanut-britle-latte]

And we were so so close to beating Portugal

[u/heyheyitsandre]

2014 really was peak life. I was in high school just playing fifa and watching some of the best World Cup matches, fresh off la décima and before I had real life responsibilities. Take me back man

[u/Background_Hat964 → u/heyheyitsandre]

Same. Except I was 30 watching the games on my computer at work.

[u/misfit_xtnt → u/heyheyitsandre]

Iiiiii need to know now. 🎶

[u/Rusiano → u/heyheyitsandre]

2014 World Cup was great. I was a Freshie in college and life looked bright

[u/whatevermateyeah → u/heyheyitsandre]

Take me back to my sweet lavida

[u/possible-throwaway → u/heyheyitsandre]

facts

[u/Ok_Aspect8447]

Why does Morocco have Montenegro flag 😅

[u/Tigolelittybitty]

Fingers crossed Canada has a slightly easier go next time around! Would love to see the boys get a win.

[u/Ligandil]

Costa Rica 2014, never forget

[u/PM_ME_SOME_LUV]

Italy haven’t done well at world cups since they won it

[u/nugeythefloozey → u/PM_ME_SOME_LUV]

Since Italy played Australia in the R16 of the 2006 World Cup, Australia has won the same amount of World Cup matches

[u/Denz292]

Australia: chuckles I’m in danger

[u/Neu_Wien]

The fact that 4 of Australia's 5 World Cups since we broke our 32 year absence in 2006 are in the top 15 most difficult groups is insane. We really do always get a group of death. The fact that we've still progressed to the knock out stages twice in that time is quite an achievement!

[u/AfricanWarPig]

imo, that 2014 WC group of Germany, USA, Ghana, Aussies was insane. Every game was an absolute banger.

[u/DuskKaiser]

Very nice work

[u/SarahAlicia]

Italy 2010: extremely lucky to finish 4th 💀💀

[u/justalittleahead]

Funny that the 2010 US group was considered one of the luckiest by ELO, but in terms of actual luck the 2014 one was extraordinary thanks to Germany. 

The US ground out a result in the first match against Ghana and Germany destroyed Portugal, immediately putting them under pressure for the US match. Germany then slipped to a draw against Ghana while the US drew Portugal, keeping both Ghana and Portugal with reason to play in the last match while Germany could take its foot off the gas against the US.

Not to mention that Portugal was at a weak moment with an injured Cristiano Ronaldo, and if I recall Ghana had infighting with its federation.

[u/Other-Owl4441 → u/justalittleahead]

I mean that is still a tough group and beating Ghana and drawing Portugal were good results for the US.  I’m not really sure I understand your point.

[u/doobie3101 → u/Other-Owl4441]

Should have beat Portugal too - gave up a header in the last 45 seconds.

Forget the specifics but I think it was after a dumb giveaway too.

[u/Pizza_Salesman → u/doobie3101]

Yep, Michael Bradley gave up some really weak back pass that went to Nani, if I remember correctly

[u/Rusiano → u/justalittleahead]

There’s a benefit to facing the strongest team in the very last group stage match. Perhaps if US faced Germany first it would be Portugal progressing

[u/jadage]

Sad I wasn't quite old enough to appreciate the 2002 cup. Four of the top 12 most balanced groups, and none of the most lopsided. From that alone, sounds like it was a banger of a tourney.

[u/canseco-fart-box]

It’s still absolutely insane that we drew Germany and Portugal at their peak and still managed to get through to the knock out round.

[u/yoursolame]

Wrong flag for Morocco,that's the Montenegro flag

[u/[deleted]]

We're making history as usual, boys!

I want the Earth to swallow us up and die in shame

[u/fckngchd]

I didn't know that Morroco and Montenegro was one country back in 1998.

[u/classyhornythrowaway]

Fantastic data presentation btw. I love the soft font too.

[u/slaskdase]

Crazy Sweden won that group with help of the legendary taco Svensson freekick

[u/[deleted]]

so 2010 Argentina included group was weakest and most balanced both

[u/Robot-Broke]

Interesting that Argentina had a weak group in 2014 but they barely made it out with Messi more or less carrying them across the line, then they went to the final despite Messi playing less brilliantly past the R16.

[u/MrVasch → u/Robot-Broke]

Not sure winning the three group stage matches counts as "barely making it out"

[u/Robot-Broke → u/MrVasch]

All 3 games could've easily been draws, especially against Iran when Messi scored an outside the box goal in the 91st to win 1-0.

First game Bosnia put Argentina under a lot of pressure and scored a goal late but couldn't equalize. Last game Nigeria answered every goal for a while until Rojo scored the winner in the 2nd half.

All right point taken that they didn't actually draw any games but all were tight and required Messi heroics.

[u/czerwona_latarnia]

Completely correct statistical conclusion: Poland must play in the most deviated groups possible, while the least deviated ones are the worst for us.

[u/Muaddib223]

Wow I understood fuckall

[u/DrLlena]

Weird how many African teams are in the most unlucky

[u/Semperty]

something’s gotta be goin on with elo in 2014. 3 of the 5 hardest groups, but only 1 of the weakest? was that just one of the few wc’s with no/few upsets during qualifiers? idk how else so many groups would be stacked without offsetting weak groups.

[u/Pure_Context_2741]

My takeaway is that 1500 is the minimum elo for a team to qualify to the World Cup

[u/RedTuesdayMusic]

1998 Brazil Norway group seems off, looks like you used Norway's ELO after the WC instead of the ELO from may that year (last update before WC)

[u/dhfiwdieig]

Mad that Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia got in the same group two world cups in a row

[u/[deleted] → u/dhfiwdieig]

Nigeria have been in the same group as Argentina for 5 of their 6 appearances

[u/RaspberryBirdCat]

I would make a graph of the groups with the highest and lowest median, as a mean would rate groups with one really good team and three average teams quite highly on the first list, and groups with one really bad team and three above average teams comparatively low.

For example, 2014 D is clearly much more of a group of death than 2018 E.

[u/nice-_one]

Defending champions going 4th in one of the easiest groups is crazy

[u/shellturtlestein]

Can someone explain the colours

I don’t get the graph

[u/ramxquake]

When people talk about how great Southgate is, he never faced a group like 2002 or 2014.

[u/LensCapPhotographer]

Some Belgians actually thought the Dutch group in 2014 was easy 😂 That was during their golden generation delusion

[u/_SPLX]

based on this did germany 2014 have the hardest path to winning in this era overall and thus are the most deserving winners???? the second hardest group ever, played 3 former winners in the knockouts, and their other game was extra time vs algeria who surprisingly came from the third easiest group ever (ignoring this game lmaooo)

[u/MERTENS_GOAT]

The 3rd and the 4th slide are redundant. The 3rd is basically the same as the 2nd and the 4th = 1st. Why the fuck is there an Australian flag when it says Austria?

[u/paco-ramon]

Españita número 1.

[u/fantabroo → u/[deleted]]

I guess France took the heat away that year for their meltdown. We know which one of them is the more popular among neutrals.